山东大学硕士学位论文
CONTENTS
ChineseAbstract………………………………………….……………………………….………………….IEnglishAbstract……...………….…......…...……………….…....................….........................IIIChapter1Introduction....…...........................................................…......................一1一1.1BackgroundandSignificance………………………………………………………….一1—1.1.1Background………………………………………………………………………….-1—
1.1.2Significance………………….………………………………………………………一1—1.2ResearchSituationatHomeandAbroad…………………………………………一一2—1.3TheMainStructureandContellts…………………………………………………….一5一Chapter2StatisticsComputation.........…......................................…..................….一7—2.1OrdinaryLeastSquareEstimation.OLSE……………………………………….一7—2.2SulnmaryofA-matrixEstimator.................….................…………………….。8。
2.3ComputationofA—matrixEstimator矿(m)………………………………一9—2.3.1CovarianceEstimation…………………………………………………………..一9—
2.3.2ComputationofA………………………….…………………………………...一11—
2.3.3AsymptoticPropertiesofAutocovarianceEstimator....................一12-Chapter3DataSourcesandResearchMethodology…..........................….……….一14-3.1DataSources……………………………………………….….…………………………..一14—3.2ResearchMethodology……..….………………………………………………………一14—3.2.1AutoregressiveIntegratedMovingAverage.ARIMA..................一14—
3.2.2PropertiesofARIMAModel………….…….……………………………..一16一Chapter4DataProcessingandModelConstructing…………………………………….-18—4.1DataPreproccssing……………………………………………………………………….一18—4.2StationaryTest....…..................…..................….........…………..……………..一19—4.3ModelConstructingandTesting..................…..................…...................一23—4.4ModelConstructingofOtherDatas………………………………………………..-29—4.4.1MoneyandQuasi-Money(M2)SupplyPeriod—End…………….一29—
4.4.2MoneyrMI)SupplyPeriod-End…………………………………………..一39—
4.4.3CurrencyinCirculation(M0)SupplyPeriod—End………………..一49—