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高文亮国际金融

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铜 陵 学 院

2013 -2014学年第1学期

《INTERNATIONAL FINANCE 》期末课程考核(课程论文)

Abstract :the purpose of this article is to introduce reasons and effects of payments imbalances.In order to advoid the loses and pacnic,we must take measures to protect our finacial market.

Keywords :reasons effects

1. . reasons

1.1 the structure and cycle imbalence

Because a country's gross domestic product structure and the corresponding elements configuration failed to timely adjust or upgrade, lead to can not adapt to the change of the international market, cause its balance of payments imbalance.Associated with the economic cycle, a because of the change of economic development to make a country's total demand, import and export trade and income is affected by the balance of payments imbalances.

1.2 the income and currency imbalence

A country's national income caused by the change of the balance of payments

imbalance.More than a certain period of a country's national income, means the import consumption or other aspects of international payments will increase, the balance of payments deficit may occur.Caused by a country's currency change of balance of payments imbalance.When a country prices generally rise or serious inflation, the product exports costs, improve the international competitiveness of products, in other conditions under the condition of constant, variable, slowing exports, at the same time, lower import costs, increased imports, the balance of payments deficit.On the other hand, there will be surplus.

.1.3 policies dan debts imbalence

A country launch caused important economic policy or implementation of a major

reform of the international balance of payments imbalance. the policy imbalances in one country launch caused important economic policy or implementation of a major reform of the international balance of payments imbalance. competitive imbalances due to the lack of international competitiveness of a country's commodity trade imbalances caused by excessive debt . sex imbalance in some developing countries in the process of the development of national economy, against the rule of the strengths, to borrow a large number of foreign debt, more than their own bear ability, at the same time, some developed countries interest rates policy and protectionist measures, terms of trade worsens in developing countries as a result, balance of payments deficit is expanding

One country to adjust the balance of payments imbalance and not simply the pursuit of the balance of international payments, because this is only a country's economic imbalances on the one hand;From a deeper sense, is to match through policy to achieve balance at home and abroad at the same time and achieve the balance of payments equilibrium, that is the ultimate goal of a country's economic balance.

To sum up, the formation of China's international balance of payments surplus is closely related to the structural and policy factors, has the following characteristics: one is the international balance of payments is the result of the domestic economy, reflects the economic structure adjustment upgrade slow, lack of consumer demand, private investment is difficult to fully start, these problems is the result of investment and financing system is not developed, such as financial reform lags behind deep contradictions.The second is the balance of payments surplus continuously, reflects the idea of some of the past and failed to timely to change in policy.For example, too much emphasis on promoting economic growth through exports;Failed to timely changing capital inflows and foreign exchange reserves more many more good idea, capital management is too wide, capital outflow management too strict.Three is closer economic ties at home and abroad, the domestic economy marketization degree under the condition of constantly improve, businesses and individuals react to price signals such as interest rate, exchange rate more responsive, its own adjustment, at the mercy of local and foreign assets has been more and more the earth influence China's international

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balance of payments.

2. Effects

2.1 introduction

A country's balance of payments imbalance, whether a surplus or deficit, will have an effect on a country's economy.The existence of surplus and deficit has objective necessity.A moderate amount of international payments surplus, usually a sign of a country's economic strength is relatively strong;And moderate deficit, in some countries of the particular stage of economic development and has certain advantages.However, when a country's international payments appear too persistent surplus or deficit will bring unfavorable influence a country's economy

2.2 negative effects of deficit

the economic impact of the international balance of payments imbalance

First, the negative impact of the balance of payments deficit

Continued, the mass balance of payments deficit for the performance of a country's economy is the following several aspects:

1, is not conducive to foreign economic exchanges.Existence of balance of payments deficit countries will increase the demand for foreign exchange, and the supply of foreign exchange, foreign exchange rates to rise, devaluation, reduce international currency status, may lead to short-term capital flight, which brings adverse effect to the country's foreign economic relations and communication.

2, if a country is in a state of deficit for a long time, will not only severe consumption of a country's reserve assets, affect its financial strength, but also reduce the country's debt paying ability, if debt morass, it will further affect the country's economic and financial power, and lose in the international prestige.As the beginning of the 20th century 80 outbreak of the international debt crisis to a large extent because of the debtor in balanceof payments deficit for a long time, do not have enough solvency.

2.3 negative effects of surplus

Continuous, massive international payments surplus will also bring adverse effect on a country's economy, the specific performance in: 1, persistent surplus will increase a country's holdings of foreign currency capital, or in the international financial market to snap up their currencies, this will produce an increase in demand for their currencies, because of the role of market rules, local currency to foreign currency exchange rate will rise and go against the export of goods, has a harmful effect on the growth of the country's economy.

2, persistent surplus will lead to a country's inflation pressures.Because if the international trade surplus, it is means that a large number of goods for export, domestic commodity supply shortage could lead to the domestic market, brings the pressure of inflation.In addition, export company will sell a lot of foreign exchange currency purchasing export products thereby increasing the money supply in the domestic market, the inflation pressure.If appear surplus capital project, a lot of capital inflows, the government will have to put in the local currency to buy the foreign exchange, which will increase the country's currency in circulation, inflation pressure.

3, a country's balance of payments surplus likely to lead to international friction, and not conducive to the development of international economic relations, for a country's balance of payments surplus means that other countries in the world because of its surplus and the international balance of payments deficit, which affects the economic development in these countries, they asked for surplus countries to adjust domestic policy, to adjust the surplus of too much, this is bound to lead to international friction, since the 1980 s, for example the escalating trade friction is Europe, the United States and Japan because of the European Union countries, the United States, Japan between asymmetric international balance of payments.

Visible, when a country's balance of payments continued imbalance, surplus or deficit, will has a harmful effect on the country's economy, the government must take the appropriate adjustment, in order to make the country's domestic economy and international economy get healthy development.

The influence of the balance of payments deficit

A country's balance of payments deficit, the general will cause their currencies down;If serious deficit, will make its currency fell sharply.The country's monetary authorities

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such as unwilling to accept the consequences, will be the foreign exchange market intervention, namely sell foreign currency and buy their currencies.It consumes foreign exchange reserves on the one hand, and even cause the drying up of foreign exchange reserves, which severely weakened the ability to pay abroad;On the other hand, can form

the domestic monetary tightening situation, prompting interest rates rise, affect the

growth of the economy, leading to the increase in unemployment and national income

growth relative and absolute decline.

From the specific reasons for the formation of balance of payments deficit, if is caused

by the trade balance of payments deficit, will result in an increase in domestic unemployment.If it is capital outflow is greater than the capital inflows, can create

tension in the domestic capital, thus affecting economic growth.

The influence of international payments surplus

A country's balance of payments surplus, it can increase its foreign reserves, strengthen

its ability to pay abroad, but also can produce the negative impact of the following:

1. General will make their currencies rise, and not conducive to the development of its

export trade, thereby increasing the domestic unemployment problem.

2. The surplus is can increase the domestic gold and foreign exchange reserves, but also

can make the domestic money supply growth, and increase inflation.

3. Will exacerbate friction because of a country's international balance of payments

surplus, means that the national balance of payments deficit, easy cause each other retaliatory measures.

4. For developing countries, the international balance of payments surplus is often due to excessive export trade surpluses, which is formed by the means of domestic available resources is reduced, and thus not conducive to economic development in developing countries.

Bibliography

1.马君路陈平主编《国际金融>>

2.<<百度文库>>

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