The New England Regional Airport System Plan

The New England Regional Airport System Plan Helping New England Be New England

Sponsored by the New England Airport Coalition ?Bangor International Airport

?Boston Logan International Airport

?Bradley International Airport

?Burlington International Airport

?L. G. Hanscom Field

?Manchester - Boston Regional Airport

?Portland International Jetport

?Portsmouth International Airport

?T. F. Green Airport

?Tweed-New Haven Regional Airport

?Worcester Regional Airport

?Connecticut Department of Transportation

o Bureau of Aviation & Ports

?Maine Department of Transportation

o Passenger Transportation Division ?Massachusetts Aeronautics Commission

?Massachusetts Port Authority

?New Hampshire Department of Transportation o Bureau of Aeronautics

?Rhode Island Airport Corporation

?Vermont Agency of Transportation

o Aviation Program

?FAA Airports Division

?New England Council

Inside...

How Does Aviation Help New England Be New England?

4 New Englanders fly a rate 80 percent higher than the national average. Knowing why helps us understand the essence of our region and how air transportation helps to preserve it.

7 Understanding Regional Airport System Dynamics

Understanding regional airport system dynamics begins with understanding the evolving nature of the airline industry and its interaction with airport development.

14 Building the Forecasts - The Basic Logic and Assumptions

Forecasts are more than numbers; here?s a brief primer on developing a critical eye for interpreting the products of the forecasting models.

18 Forecast Results

What they tell us about the nature of the air transportation services required by the next generation of air passengers.

27 Challenges for the Regional System

This presents a strategic approach to providing an essential public

service that relies upon a constantly evolving private airline industry.

34 Meet the Airports

A summary of key facts and issues for each of the study?s airports.

?Bangor International Airport 34 ?Boston Logan International Airport 36 ?Bradley International Airport 38 ?Burlington International Airport 40 ?L.G. Hanscom Field 42 ?Manchester Boston Regional Airport 44 ?Portland International Jetport 46 ?Portsmouth International Airport 48 ?T.F. Green Airport 50 ?Tweed-New Haven Regional Airport 52 ?Worcester Regional Airport 54 Finally…

56 Some final thoughts on the commitment required to achieving this

vision and an acknowledgement of the organizations and individuals

who contributed to this effort.

Introduction

In the early nineties, the New England Region was faced with a dilemma that threatened its future economic development and vitality. In a world that was increasingly dependent upon air transportation, New England?s primary airport, Boston Logan International Airport, was running out of capacity and efforts to land bank a site for a new major airport had failed.

In the best Yankee tradition, the region began to examine how to make the best use of the resources they had - a system of under-utilized regional airports. By the end of the decade a unique collaborative effort involving all six state aviation agencies and eleven passenger service airports had positioned the regional airports to benefit from the entry of low fare carriers and had improved access to airline services for passengers throughout New England. However, the question remained, “Will this be enough to provide for the needs of the next generation of air passengers?”

To answer this question this coalition sponsored the New England Region Airport System Study (NERASP). This study discovered some very interesting answers to this central question. First, the region has an unusually high reliance on air transportation. Second, the system does have the ability to meet passenger demand through 2020. But to do so requires continued efforts to enhance the performance of each airport in the system. This is essential to achieve the level of efficiency and resiliency the system must have for a region so dependent on the services of a constantly evolving airline industry.

A majority of the Region?s passe ngers will continue to fly through Boston Logan International Airport. Therefore, the system will rely upon Logan to continue to improve its efficiency in handling aircraft operations and passengers. This study also identifies several airports that could improve the performance of the regional system if they can overcome the challenges they face in developing the services required by their communities. For example, Providence?s T. F. Green Airport lacks sufficient runway length to efficiently serve its comm unities? needs for west coast and international markets. Worcester and New Haven have the potential to serve a total of 3.8 million passengers, drawing almost one million of these passengers away from congested airports in New England and New York. The forecast models also reveal an emerging market for jet service from Cape Cod to major domestic markets.

This report describes the foundations of a regional strategy for the air carrier airport system to support the needs of air passengers through 2020. Its underlying theme is to develop an airport system based upon the location of passengers and with adequate facilities to allow airlines to evolve the range of services that provide the best mix of efficiency, convenience, and reliability.

By providing this forward vision of the region?s needs, this study hopes to promote a common understanding of the challenges that need to be addressed by local airport planning and development programs.

A message from the Administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

New England continues to lead the way with an effort that is marked by both ingenuity and conservation of valuable resources. The New England Regional Airport System Plan is a blueprint that will be of great benefit to the passenger service airports in the great northeast.

This project represents an unparalleled collaboration by the six New England state aviation agencies and their passenger jet service airports. This plan combines the best and the brightest from academia, industry and government.

What you?ll find is a shared understanding of the challenges and opportunities presented to New England?s airport system. This document provides our airport managers and their governmental sponsors with a clearer view of the action required to support the air transportation needs of their communities. This means that significant investments can be made with an understanding of the long-term needs of the region?s passengers. More to the point, this plan is not influenced by the ups and

downs of the airline industry.

The value of applying regional planning for preparing for tomorrow?s challenges to our aviation system is of such national importance that I have made the completion of this study part of FAA?s Flight Plan.

Marion C. Blakey

Federal Aviation Administration

A Message from FAA’s New England Regional Administrator

In less than ten years, the United States will reach one billion passengers annually. The emergence of very light jets, the move from wide-body aircraft to smaller jets, and the shift to new entrants are changing the way Americans travel by air. It is an exciting future for the aviation industry.

The New England Regional Airport System Plan represents a key step in preparing for the future. It combines regional planning, economic development, and insightful knowledge of the air carrier industry to create a superb decision resource for the future development of the 11 passenger jet airports in the region. It will provide invaluable guidance for airport operators as they make important facility development decisions. In addition, it will support the regional coordination among airports required to serve the unique air transportation needs of the New England region.

If aviation is the lifeblood of America?s economy, and our a irport system is the heartbeat that makes it go, this is doubly true for New England. There are challenges ahead. The New England Regional Airport System Plan inspires confidence that we will be ready to meet them.

Amy L. Corbett

Regional Administrator

FAA New England Region

A Message from this Study’s Sponsoring Agencies and Airports

The coalition of the region?s major airports, the six New England state aviation agencies, and the Federal Aviation Administration are proud of our latest effort the New England Regional Airport System Plan to understand the air transportation needs of New England. Our coalition was established in the early …90s to develop a continuous approach to monitoring and managing the progress and

challenges of our New England airport system. We found that the development of this information at the system level gives us greater confidence as we strive to support the policies and investments required for the continued growth and prosperity of each of our jurisdictions within the New England region.

?Bangor International Airport

?Boston Logan International Airport

?Bradley International Airport

?Burlington International Airport

?L.G. Hanscom Field

?Manchester Boston Region Airport

?Portland International Jetport

?Portsmouth International Airport

?T. F. Green Airport

?Tweed-New Haven Regional Airport

?Worcester Regional Airport

?Connecticut Department of Transportation

?Maine Department of Transportation

?Massachusetts Aeronautics Commission

?Massachusetts Port Authority

?New Hampshire Department of Transportation

?Rhode Island Airport Corporation

?Vermont Agency of Transportation

Message from the Manager, FAA New England Region Airports Division Normally our Division?s role is to provide funding and technical review to studies performed by the airports and state aviation agencies. For the past 12 years, however, the New England Region has enjoyed a true collaboration with this coalition. This partnership has allowed us to produce the quality of information that has successfully guided the investments leading to a stronger regional airport system. I want to take this opportunity to thank all the participants for the spirit of trust and cooperation that has been a defining element of our regional programs.

A high level of effort was directed at producing a report that would be informative to interested members of the public who do not have extensive aviation backgrounds. I hope all readers find that they have gained a deeper insight into the issues that will be engaging those of us working individually and collectively to meet the needs of New England?s next generation of air passengers.

And, finally, I would like to express my appreciation and admiration for the consultant and agency staff directly involved in producing this report. They have provided us with a product that not only advances the needs for our region, but also advances the very practice of regional airport system planning itself.

Laverne Reid

Manager,

FAA New England Airports Division

How Does Aviation Help New England Be New England?

Introduction

New England has an unusually high reliance on air transportation. The region generates 2.5 air passenger trips per year per capita, almost 80 percent higher than the national rate of 1.4. While this is a remarkable fact, a closer look reveals that several of the essential attributes of New England offer a plausible explanation for this high level of air travel. These attributes can be grouped into four categories geography, economy, population and cultural and scenic resources. Taken together they portray the very essence of New England. And underlying this portrait is a vision of the critical role

of high quality air transportation in sustaining the variety of attributes that combine to sust ain this essence. Let?s t ake a closer look at these.

Geography Economy Population Resources

The factor that weaves these attributes together is air transportation.

Geography

New England?s location in the northeast corner of the country tends to turn New Englanders toward air travel. While high-speed rail offers a good alternative to New York, Philadelphia and Washington, business travelers have few alternatives

to air beyond this range. For most trips to other parts of the country, the convenience and speed of air travel is compelling. And with the emergence of low fare service, an increasing percentage of New England-based leisure travelers

have come to prefer air travel as well.

Economy

Some economists believe that economic growth will flow toward areas with a critical mass of people who are creative, enterprising, and collaborative. (See Footnote 1) This “creative class,” scientists, engineers, academics, doctors, and media professionals, seek to locate in places that exhibit certain qualities. These include an appreciation of individual merit, a tolerant social environment, an academic atmosphere, and opportunities to participate in active, outdoor recreational pursuits. New England fits this profile in a number of ways: the number of educational institutions, the culturally and ethnically diverse cities, the heritage of independent thinking, and easy access to a wide range of recreational experiences. As just one example of the existence of this type of economy in New England, the percentage of New England?s jobs in t he medical, educational, and “information” fields is nearly 20 percent - as compared to just under 15 percent for the country as a whole. (See Footnote 2)

While advances in telecommunications and information technology have substituted to some degree for face-to-face communication, there still is a tremendous reliance on travel among participants in the knowledge industries. And the region?s acknowledged national

leadership in education and medicine also tend to support the use of air travel. Researchers, medical professionals, patients, faculty, students, and conference participants travel to and from New England in great numbers and they do it by air. Finally, international markets are increasing in importance for the New England economy. This is especially true of the rapidly developing Asian economies which are expanding in sectors (high technology, communications, etc.) that are of

relevance to New England?s own economy. The correspondence between these economies naturally co ntributes to the region?s high rate of business air travel. Population

Income and education levels that are well above the national average characterize the region?s population. The 2000 U.S. Census indicates that two of the 5 most affluent states are Massachusetts and Connecticut. These higher incomes support higher levels of leisure air travel. This has been further stimulated by the expansion of low fare airlines throughout the New England market. And it is yet to be determined the extent to which leisure travel will grow, as baby boomers enter retirement with higher levels of disposable income and greater inclinations to travel than previous generations.

The degree to which the New England economy relies on its airports can be seen by considering a few other facts: in 2004, over 45 million people traveled by air from a New England airport to destinations in all 50 states and numerous countries. Over 700 metric tons of cargo - from electronic components and fresh flowers to tuna and maple syrup - was transported by aircraft from Logan Airport.

Airports are also a very important center of business activity in the region. It is estimated that the combined impact of revenues and payrolls generated by the NERASP airports exceeds 13 billion dollars per year.

Scenic and Cultural Resources

It has been said that had the United States been settled from West to East, all of New England would today be a national park. While that may be debatable, what is less debatable is the touchstone of the New England regional identity. The New England landscape is alive with spectacle, variety, and compelling natural beauty. It speaks to all of us: natives, long-time residents and even the college students who come, graduate and decide to stick around awhile. A natural magnet for tourism, the New England landscape is a human-scale panorama. It extends from the embrace of the Housatonic Valley to the hilly sanctuaries of the Berkshires; from the lakes of Central Massachusetts to the Maine coast; from the salt marshes of Cape Cod to Vermont?s Mount Mansfield; and from the kettle ponds of Rhode Island?s South County to the majestic Presidential Range of New Hampshire. There are few geographic brands as successful as “made in New England,” whether the product being sold is fall foliage, ski vacations, striper fishing, or maple syrup. Of course, the ultimate New England “product” is much of our national heritage; this includes, for example, pilgrims? landings, sea trading, whaling, ship building, and the

first shots fired in the war for independence. These qualities make New England a popular destination for travelers from throughout the country and abroad, and they travel here overwhelmingly by air.

Summary

The special attributes discussed above - involving geography, economy, population and resources - are essential ingredients in the formation of the New England identity. And these attributes tend to support one another. For example, the cultural and

scenic qualities of the region are one of the “qualities” that attract “creative class" industries; and the existence of these industries produces a population with higher levels of income and education. And the factor that weaves these attributes together is air transportation. It provides the ready two-way access between New England and the national and international markets essential for the function of the region's economy and the lifestyle of its population.

It was recognition of this reliance of New England on air transportation services that forged the alliance of the region's state aviation agencies and major airports, and motivated them to undertake this study. Given this understanding of why New Englander's fly 80 percent more frequently than the national rate, it is essential to have a strategy for developing an airport system that supports the aspirations of the region?s population and industries. This report describes both the analytical underpinnings and the specific actions comprising such a strategy for ensuring the vitality of the regional airport system through the next twenty years.

An example of how New England leads in knowledge industries is demonstrated by its role in medical training. Nearly 10 percent of the 375 member institutions of the (COTH), which represents the best hospitals in the country, are located

in New England. Massachusetts alone, the cornerstone of the New England medical sector, is home to 16 COTH member institutions, nearly one-half the New England total.

New England's regional airports have continued to evolve into a true system, a system in which increasingly overlapping service areas and improved ground access options are providing passengers with real options as they make air travel decisions.

Understanding Regional Airport System Dynamics

Scheduled Passenger Jet Service Airports

The New England Regional Airport System Plan (NERASP) study is the latest effort in an ongoing program of regional planning that began around 1990. (See Footnote 3) New England's commitment to regional airport planning arose from two related concerns. First, Logan Airport in Boston, the region's busiest airport, was becoming increasingly congested and efforts to either expand capacity or develop a second major airport were judged impractical. (See Sidebar "How About a Second Major Airport in New England?")

Second, there was a growing awareness that several under-utilized airports were within easy reach of the Boston region and were capable of supporting jet service to major destinations outside New England. Many of these had just completed facility projects in response to development of new airline services following deregulation only to find passengers drawn back to Logan by airline price wars. In response to an initiative begun by the New England Council, the New England region formed a coalition of its scheduled jet service airports, the state aviation agencies, and the Federal Aviation Administration began to develop a plan for enhancing airline services throughout the region. (See Footnote 4)

This effort to improve the development of regional airport services had the following three objectives:

1. Improve customer service - match air travel service to passengers? needs.

2. Support the region?s economy - ensure an efficient and reliable system of air service development consistent with the region?s growth.

3. Provide an environmentally sound air service system - minimize total distance traveled to access air travel, reduce passenger demand at congested airports, and avoid the need for developing a new major air passenger airport in New England.

Understanding regional airport system dynamics begins with understanding the evolving nature of the airline industry and its interaction with airport development

The Dynamics of the Regional Airport System

The behavior of this region?s airport system h as primarily resulted from the interaction of airline services with the distribution of demand for airline services across the region. (See Footnote 5) By increasing their understanding of both the nature of passenger needs and the business strategies of the airlines, the public agencies in New England responsible for the airport system have substantially improved the distribution of air services for the region. This can be seen in the following review of major patterns of airline competitive strategies and consequent impacts on airport development since the deregulation of the airline industry.

Post-deregulation

(1982-1989)

In the early 1980s, just after airline deregulation, Logan served 78 percent of the region?s air passengers. Over the course of the decade, the development of hub and spoke systems by major airlines and aggressive airline expansion strategies introduced new jet services at regional airports and increased the use of connecting flights between Logan and regional airports with new turboprop aircraft. The regional airports invested in expanding passenger facilities and airfield improvements in reaction to rapid growth in passenger activity. By 1989, Logan?s share of the market had declined to 68 percent.

Competition for market share in major markets

(1990-1995)

The early 1990s ushered in a period of economic decline. In response to operating deficits, airlines shifted towards a business strategy of market dominance in major markets. This led to fare wars at Logan and premium fares at regional airports. Growth at regional airports was stagnant. Some airports were financially strained by recently expanded, but under-utilized facilities. In an effort to create more system balance and to support regional economic expansion, a coalition of airport sponsors and aviation agencies was formed to promote the development of air transportation service throughout the region. The first action was to conduct a study of the geographical distribution of air passenger

markets across the region. The purpose of this was to evaluate the opportunity for improved jet services at the regional airports.

Armed with this study, in 1996, this coalition launched

its “Fly New England” campaign. It included:

? A regional conference with all of the airlines to introduce the study findings, ?Collaborative marketing campaigns to improve passengers? and travel agents? awareness of regional airports,

?Use of the study data by airport managers to demonstrate to airlines the opportunities for enhancing revenues through lowered fares and improved routes, and

?Funding of key runway and facility improvements to support regional airport markets.

Entry of low fare airlines and growth of regional airports

(1996-2000)

Coincident with the efforts of the “Fly New England” campaign, Southwest Airline s decided to expand into the New England market through the region?s secondary airports rather than Logan, expanding first at Providence and then into Manchester and Bradley. This was a significant catalyst to regional demand as their entry was met with both service improvements and fare reductions by the existing airlines.

This led to a complete reversal of the pattern of passenger growth over the first half of the decade (See Figure #1). From 1990-1996, Logan accommodated 77 percent of the 2.9 million passenger increase in New England. Over the next three years, when the region?s air passengers increased by 6.3 million, the regional airports accommodated three-fourths of the region?s growth. During this same period, new term inal and parking facilities were completed at Bradley, major runway extensions and terminal improvements were built at Manchester, and T.F. Green expanded terminal facilities and access road capacity. Logan completed a major modernization of its terminal and circulatory roadway system. Meanwhile Logan embarked on a major planning and environmental study to find ways

to improve its airfield in order to continue serving the core Boston

metropolitan market.

Figure 1

Post recession and terrorism

(2001-2005)

Clearly, the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, caused an unprecedented and immediate decline in air passenger activity. Logan was already experiencing reduced activity due to the shake-up of the “dot-com” and financial sectors and the resulting decline in business travel. This was a period of tremendous financial crisis It led to financial restructuring, a drastic reduction in the number of aircraft being flown, and a growing effort to emulate low fare carriers. Airlines pulled out of smaller markets such as Worcester. Despite these conditions, the other regional airports demonstrated a solid market that recovered much more quickly. In fact, from 2001 through 2005 Manchester maintained positive year to year growth.

However, as financial difficulties from multiple fronts continued to undercut the profits

of the large network carriers, they have once again concentrated their downsized fleets in the largest airport markets. Logan and its significant passenger base has benefited. Logan now has low fare service to an extensive national network and airports such as Manchester are experiencing declining activity due to service reductions by the network carriers. (See Footnote 6)

Lessons Learned

And so we see that the past 20-plus years of air travel have featured dramatic fluctuations. These have included the creation of hub and spokes services following deregulation to a period of market dominance and fare wars in the larger market airports to the growth of the regional airports to the current post-9/11 environment. This has led to a number of useful findings and observations. They are as follows:

Major Drivers

?Airline competitive strategies are constantly evolving and have significant impact on levels of activity at airports.

?The growth in demand for air travel, the improvements in cost efficiency of new aircraft and the emergence of new airlines will continue to drive innovation in

airline business strategies.

?Given the previous two conditions, airport planning that bases its decisions on current airline service strategies will likely be in error. Developing airport

facilities must be based on a longer-term understanding of passenger needs. Specific Regional Dynamics

?Manchester and Providence have similar relationships with Logan in that they function as alternative bases for airlines that compete for passengers from the

greater Boston metropolitan area. Airlines prefer to match services from both

airports. Inadequate facilities in one location can impede service development at

both.

?The leakage rates and new service opportunities estimated in the mid nineties were a strong predictor of where passenger growth occurred in the late nineties.

(See Footnote 7) This is an initial confirmation of the validity of the analytical

approaches being used in these studies.

?During periods of consolidation of airline services, airports dominated by low-fare carriers may lose service more rapidly

since the network carriers will be targeting their services toward markets with

higher profit margins.

Tactical Lessons

?There are unpredictable and significant shifts in levels of passenger activity.

Financial plans for facility investments must be able to withstand fluctuations in

revenue.

? A new entrant airline at Worcester and Portsmouth, Allegiant Air, purchased baggage handling and ramp services from local aviation service companies.

Though this airline has since left Worcester, it may still serve as a business

model that could allow other airlines to enter these markets without having to

commit to the overhead of staffing a new station.

?Passengers are averse to lengthy and unpredictable delays in all segments of their air travel since it requires starting a journey with an extra margin of time

that will most often be perceived as wasted waiting in an airport terminal. If an

airport can demonstrate greater reliability and predictability of all portions of the air trip, they may be able to significantly influence the passengers? choice of

airports.

High Speed Rail

?During the initial period following 9/11, there was an increase in passengers using Amtrak service to the New York City area. Unfortunately, equipment

problems interrupted this shift in mode choice. Nonetheless, Amtrak rail service

demonstrated its value as a complement and back up to air service for this

segment of the Northeast Corridor. Of course, neither mode is a perfect

substitute for the other. Public investments need to evaluate each system on

terms of its own primary passenger base and consider their ability to

complement each other as an additional and highly desirable public benefit.

History of Regional Planning in the New England Region

1989

Massachusetts System Plan identified the need to land bank a site for a second major airport as Logan was forecasted to reach capacity by 2010.

1990

Massachusetts initiated a site selection study for a second major airport.

1993

The Massachusetts Strategic Assessment Report identified that a greater use of regional airports combined with airfield improvements at Logan and high-speed rail service to New native to a new major airport.

1994

A coalition of six New England State Aviation Agencies, all of the scheduled jet passenger service airports, and the New England Council was formed and initiated the "New England Regional Air Service Study."

1996

The regional coalition held a “Fly New England” workshop with airline representatives to present the findings of this study and to outline collaborative marketing programs.

1998

Phase II of the regional air service study provided updated data on air service opportunities in the region.

2002

Phase I of the New England Regional Airport System Plan (NERASP) was initiated. 2004

Start of Phase II of the NERAP study.

Looking Ahead

The last 20 years have demonstrated that the airline industry is volatile. It shows that a regional strategy is needed; one that has both the flexibility to accommodate the need of the airlines to operate efficiently and an understanding of long-term market forces. New

England?s regional airports have cont inued to evolve into a true system, a system in which increasingly overlapping service areas and improved ground access options are providing passengers with real options as they make air travel decisions. It has benefited by combining an understanding of the long term needs of passengers with an appreciation for the financial risks in the air transportation industry and the interaction among our airport markets. Looking ahead it is vital that, while each airport plans its own development program, we maintain at the same time a shared vision of how the New England Airport System can function in a way that provides optimal air transportation services to serve the region?s future.

This Report

The rest of this report presents the building blocks upon which this shared vision can be developed. These are organized around the following questions:

?How were the forecasts developed, what are the critical assumptions and how do they deal with the uncertainties of the air transportation marketplace?

?What do we know about future passenger needs?

?What are the challenges and key objectives in developing a regional system to respond to those needs?

More detailed information is provided in the two-page presentation of data for each airport. Finally, all of the technical papers developed during the course of this study have been compiled on a CD (see back cover for ordering information).

How about a Second Major Airport in New England?

Typically, whenever a major airport such as Logan is facing increased congestion and lacks the opportunity to expand, there arises the question of building a new airport to solve the problem.

Peter Meade was the President of the New England Council in the early nineties. The Council had studied the problems at Logan and concluded in 1989 that there was a need to begin developing a Second Major Airport in Massachusetts. When Fort Devens was closed as an active military base there were ongoing studies considering developing it into a major commercial airport. Mr. Meade relates the following discussion of the region?s congressional delegation on this issue.

When I told the Senator that we would like his support for redeveloping the base as a new major airport he looked at me and said, “Before you came in I was meeting with a group that wanted a federal prison in order to keep out the airport, and before that there was a group that preferred a trucking terminal. And after I meet with you I have an appointment with a group willing to consider a nuclear waste disposal site to prevent an airport being developed! Now what do you think the chances are that you can get sufficient popular support behind using the base for an airport?”

Swallowing that dose of reality, Peter Meade began a discussion with airport officials and the FAA about how the region could function without a new airport. From these efforts, grew the six state consortium of aviation agencies and

airports that launched the “Fly New England” project and this latest study.

ln(RP) = C + CY*ln(Y) + CPCIP*ln(PCIP) + CPP*ln(PP) + CLFC*LFC + CREC*REC Building the Forecasts-

The Basic Logic and Assumptions

Predicting how scheduled air services would change and how those changes would impact the regio n?s airport system presented a major challenge to the study. One reason

for this is that the models used needed to (a) be sensitive to the factors influencing passenger demand and (b) produce estimates of various trip destinations and types of passenger at reasonable levels of detail. The need for forecasts of other activities at the region?s 11 jet passenger air ports, such as scheduled cargo and general aviation activities, presented a further challenge. However, the primary focus of this study was scheduled passenger markets for domestic routes, as this activity has the greatest impact on the overall functioning of the regional airport system.

Three Questions - Three Models

In an effort to understand future patterns of domestic passenger activity, the following three major questions presented themselves:

1.What is the magnitude of air passenger travel demand between New England and

other major destinations in the United States (the macro demand model)?

2.Where in New England do passengers ultimately begin and end their trips (the

passenger allocation model)?

3.What would be the pattern of passenger airport selection in response to changes in

schedules, fares and the time required to get to airports (the airport choice model)? How Many Passengers?

To answer the first question, past travel patterns were used to create a forecast model that compared air travel behavior in three New England “submarkets” to 62 domestic markets around the U.S. The three submarkets were given the names Central, North/West, and Southwest. Working with 20 years of historical value, the study team spent considerable effort to find forecast formulas that provided both a good statistical fit and made common sense. Statistical fit is simply looking back and measuring how well year-to-year changes in key factors, say population and air fares, predicted the number of passengers who flew. Common sense is then applied to ensure that the mathematical formulas that come out of the efforts to find a statistical fit represent our understanding of the basic laws of markets. For example, as prices fall, consumers will usually buy more of a product. Based upon

this work, it was determined that the three most important factors affecting increased

demand for air travel are increases in population, increases in personal income, and decreases in airfares. (See Footnote 8) Developing separate forecast equations for short, medium, and long distance markets further refined the forecast. Using forecasts of population and income obtained from https://www.wendangku.net/doc/009888021.html, and predictions of future airfares from a review of FAA and industry forecasts, an overall “macro” forecast of demand was developed that applied these three factors to each of the 62 major domestic markets.

Forecast Scenarios

Every forecast reflects underlying assumptions. These are forecasts in and of themselves of how certain market conditions will change in the future. To address natural uncertainty in the forecasts of these market conditions, it is common to construct “scenarios” reflecting changes in these market conditions. By looking at the effect of variations in those scenarios, we can get an idea how sensitive the forecasts are to changes in underlying market conditions.

In order to identify which scenarios would be of greatest value to this project, a two-day workshop was held with study participants - agency staff, consultants, and peer group members. The workshop focused on evaluating how future demand for air travel could be affected by a variety of departures from historical trends. These departures, called “trend-breakers,” can range from geo-political issues to changes in aircraft technology and telecommunications. After a careful analysis, it was determined that, the bottom line impact of these large but unpredictable events could be simulated by changes in the major drivers of passenger demand - growth in income and changes in airfares. Based on this, the first scenario represented a continuation of current trends in those drivers. This is called the Base Case. In addition, two alternative scenarios were tested: one leading to a higher forecast and one leading to a lower one.

In the higher scenario, called the Enhanced Scenario, the per capita income growth rate was increased from 1.6% to 2.4%. Airfares were allowed to decline in a manner similar to the base case assumptions with the exception of Boston and the NYC area airports, where it was assumed that high passenger volumes and associated congestion would result in premium pricing, driving average airfares up by 15%. In the lower scenario, called the Depressed Scenario, the annual increase in per capita income was lowered from the 1.6% to 0.8% and airfares were held at current levels. This approach also allowed us to measure the sensitivity of the forecast to these two drivers of demand. Adjustments to “Passenger Forecasts”

The method used to develop the forecasts of passenger activity between New England and major domestic markets produced a successful result as defined by its ability to replicate how historically passenger demand changed in reaction to changes in income, population, and fares. But as one member of our Peer Review Panel is fond of saying, these methods “are like trying to drive down the highway by using your rear view mirror.” (See Footnote 9) In a review of the initi al forecasts, it was noted that the historical period used for model calibration was coincident with a declining price of air

travel and an expansion of services. It was further determined that this caused the model to produce average annual growth rates that exceeded longer-term historic experience and that such growth was not sustainable into the future period covered by this study.

Since we already had developed an enhanced scenario to help us understand the impacts of higher-than-anticipated growth, professional judgment was used to modify the model?s base case forecast to reflect a more reasonable growth rate of

2.3% that reduced the 2020 forecast from its original 92.8 to 75 million passengers. What are the Places of Origin of the Passengers?

To answer the second question: concerning where passengers ultimately begin and end their trips, the study conducted simultaneous surveys of passengers at all airports with scheduled airline service. The content of these surveys permitted the data that was collected to be broken down into resident vs. non-resident travelers and business vs. leisure travelers.

An important product of the survey was a profile of passengers that, when combined with demographic data from cities and towns throughout the region, enabled the study to estimate passenger origins by municipality within major markets as well as

groups of communities in more rural areas.

Which Airports Will Passengers Use?

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阀组系列产品 1.VX-32型三阀组 2.M364W-420P-35/54型三阀组 3.M564W-320P-54五阀组 4.EFZ-320C(P)型二阀组 5.引压接头

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翻译的归化与异化 作者：熊启煦 作者单位：西南民族大学,四川,成都,610041 刊名： 西南民族大学学报（人文社科版） 英文刊名：JOURNAL OF SOUTHWEST UNIVERSITY FOR NATIONALITIES（HUMANITIES AND SOCIAL SCIENCE） 年，卷(期)：2005,26(8) 被引用次数：14次 参考文献(3条) 1.鲁迅且介亭杂文二集·题未定草 2.刘英凯归化--翻译的歧路 3.钱钟书林纾的翻译 引证文献(15条) 1.郭锋一小议英语翻译当中的信达雅[期刊论文]-青春岁月 2011(4) 2.许丽红论汉英语言中的文化差异与翻译策略[期刊论文]-考试周刊 2010(7) 3.王笑东浅谈汉英语言中的差异与翻译方法[期刊论文]-中国校外教育（理论） 2010(6) 4.王宁中西语言中的文化差异与翻译[期刊论文]-中国科技纵横 2010(12) 5.鲍勤.陈利平英语隐喻类型及翻译策略[期刊论文]-云南农业大学学报(社会科学版) 2010(2) 6.罗琴.宋海林浅谈汉英语言中的文化差异及翻译策略[期刊论文]-内江师范学院学报 2010(z2) 7.白蓝跨文化视野下文学作品的英译策略[期刊论文]-湖南社会科学 2009(5) 8.王梦颖探析汉英语言中的文化差异与翻译策略[期刊论文]-中国校外教育（理论） 2009(8) 9.常晖英汉成语跨文化翻译策略[期刊论文]-河北理工大学学报（社会科学版） 2009(1) 10.常晖对翻译文化建构的几点思考[期刊论文]-牡丹江师范学院学报（哲学社会科学版） 2009(4) 11.常晖认知——功能视角下隐喻的汉译策略[期刊论文]-外语与外语教学 2008(11) 12.赵勇刚汉英语言中的文化差异与翻译策略[期刊论文]-时代文学 2008(6) 13.常晖.胡渝镛从文化角度看文学作品的翻译[期刊论文]-重庆工学院学报(社会科学版) 2008(7) 14.曾凤英从文化认知的视角谈英语隐喻的翻译[期刊论文]-各界 2007(6) 15.罗琴.宋海林浅谈汉英语言中的文化差异及翻译策略[期刊论文]-内江师范学院学报 2010(z2) 本文链接：https://www.wendangku.net/doc/009888021.html,/Periodical_xnmzxyxb-zxshkxb200508090.aspx

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在氟塑料中，聚四氟乙烯消耗最大，用途最广，它是氟塑料中的一个重要品种。聚四氟乙烯的化学结构是把聚乙烯中全部氢原子被氟原子取代而成。 产品名称：聚四氟乙烯 英文名：Polytetrafluoroethylene 别名：PTFE;铁氟龙;特氟龙;teflon;特氟隆;F4;塑料之王;テフロン(日语)【英文缩写为PTFE，商标名Teflon?，中文译名各地不同：大陆译为特富龙?，香港译为特氟龙?，台湾译为铁氟龙?】 分子式：[CF2CF2]n 生产方法：聚四氟乙烯由四氟乙烯经自由基聚合而生成。工业上的聚合反应是在大量水存在下搅拌进行的，用以分散反应热，并便于控制温度。聚合一般在40～80℃，3～26千克力／厘米2压力下进行，可用无机的过硫酸盐、有机过氧化物为引发剂，也可以用氧化还原引发体系。每摩尔四氟乙烯聚合时放热171.38kJ。分散聚合须添加全氟型的表面活性剂，例如全氟辛酸或其盐类。 用途：可制成棒、板、管材、薄膜及各种异型制品，用于航天、化工、电子、机械、医药等领域。 备注： 聚四氟乙烯[PTFE,F4]是当今世界上耐腐蚀性能最佳材料之一，因此得"塑料王"之美称。它能在任何种类化学介质长期使用，它的产生解决了我国化工、石油、制药等领域的许多问题。聚四氟乙烯密封件、垫圈、垫片. 聚四氟乙烯密封件、垫片、密封垫圈是选用悬浮聚合聚四氟乙烯树脂模塑加工制成。聚四氟乙烯与其他塑料相比具有耐化学腐蚀与耐温优异的特点，它已被广泛地应用作为密封材料和填充材料。 具有高度的化学稳定性和卓越的耐化学腐蚀能力，如耐强酸、强碱、强氧化剂等，有突出的耐热、耐寒及耐摩性，长期使用温度范围为-200-+250℃，还有优异的电绝缘性，且不受温度与频率的影响。此外，具有不沾着、不吸水、不燃烧等特点。悬浮树脂一般采用模压，烧结的办法成型加工，所制得的棒、板或其他型材还可进一步用车刨、钻、铣等机加工方法加工。棒材再经车削牵伸可制成定向薄膜。 ------------------------------------------------------ 聚四氟乙烯(PTFE)特性：

四年级作文：谢谢你帮助我作文600字

谢谢你帮助我 一个阳光灿烂的星期六，我和妈妈去大润发买一些生活必需品。回家的路上发生了一件令我难忘的事。 为了节省一点时间，妈妈骑电动车选择了一段逆行的路，但是后来她为此付出了惨痛的代价。因为害怕，妈妈的手有些抖，当她看到一个可以通到人行道的小坡时，便迫不及待地想拐到上边去。忙中出错，不知道那里为什么会有水，瞬间我们和车子一起倒在了地上，我手中拿的饮料顿时洒了满地，我的脚跟一阵剧烈的疼痛，泪水夺眶而出，我痛苦地趴在地上，手里还紧紧攥着空的饮料杯，望着这个突然颠倒的世界，我嚎啕大哭。 这时，对面来了一个戴着墨镜，皮肤黝黑的胖叔叔，他看到我们立刻停住了脚步，赶紧蹲下来，关切地问我：“小朋友，你没事吧？”大概因为太疼了，根本无心回答叔叔的问话。他一边说一边帮不知所措的妈妈把车抬了起来，让我的脚脱离了电动车的魔掌，更神奇的是他从包里拿出了一个棒棒糖笑着递给我，说：“小朋友，我这里有止痛棒棒糖，要不要来一个？”我看了看叔叔，破涕为笑，毕竟棒棒糖对我的吸引力还是巨大的，我的疼痛瞬时随着棒棒糖飞到了九霄云外，连忙点头说：“我要！我要！”与此同时，刚刚缓过神来的妈妈也连声向叔叔道谢，胖叔叔见我没什么大事，便准备起身离开，临走时，他又千叮万嘱让妈妈一定带我去医院检查，以后骑车不要逆行，望着他远去的背影，我突然想起了什么，大喊一声：“叔叔，谢谢你！”逆着阳光，我依稀看见他那张黝黑的带着微笑的脸向我点了点头，泪水再

次湿了我的眼睛，这次是感动的泪水。 回家的路上，我和妈妈一直回味着那温暖的一幕。那双手在我万分窘迫的时候将我扶起，那话语犹如灿烂阳光照进我心里。叔叔，谢谢你！帮助我！