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经济学人阅读Not as close as lips and teeth

经济学人阅读Not as close as lips and teeth
经济学人阅读Not as close as lips and teeth

Not as close as lips and teeth China should not fear India’s growing friendship with Vietnam

Oct 22nd 2011 | from the print edition

WHEN China’s sovereignty is at issue Global Times, a Beijing newspaper, does not mince words. In September it growled that a contract between Vietnam and an Indian state-owned oil-and-gas company, ONGC, to explore in Chinese-claimed waters in the South China Sea would “push China to the limit”. Yet this month India and Vietnam have reached an agreement on “energy co-operation”. Global Times is incensed that this was signed just a day after Vietnam, during a visit to Beijing by the head of its communist party, Nguyen Phu Trong, had agreed with China on “ground rules” for solving maritime squabbles. Now, thundered the paper, “China may consider taking actions to show its stance and prevent more reckless attempts in confronting China.”

The more sober China Energy News, a publication of the Communist Party’s People’s Daily, has weighed in, warning India that its “energy strategy is

slipping into an extremely dangerous whirlpool.” Behind such fulminations lie two C hinese fears. One is that India’s involvement complicates its efforts to have its way in the tangled territorial disputes in the South China Sea. The

second is that India and Vietnam are seeking closer relations as part of an American-led strategy to contain China. Even if the first worry has some basis, fears of containment are overblown.

As Mr Trong was in China, however, Vietnam’s president, Truong Tan Sang, was in India, to pursue the two countries’ “strategic partnership”. Paranoid Chinese nationalists could be forgiven for feeling ganged up on. After all, ignoring the border clashes with the former Soviet Union in 1969, these were the countries on the other side of China’s two most recent wars. In both Delhi and Hanoi the experience of brief “punitive” invasion by China respectively still colours attitudes. India was humiliated by China’s foray into what is now Arunachal Pradesh in 1962. Vietnam’s fierce response to the Chinese invasion of 1979 has become part of national legend of perpetual resistance to Chinese domination.

Vietnam still claims the Paracel islands in the South China Sea, from which China evicted it in 1974, as well as the much-contested Spratlys to the south, where over 70 Vietnamese sailors died in clashes with China in 1988. Tension in the area remains high. Earlier this year, after a Vietnamese ship had its surveying cables cut by a Chinese patrol boat, hundreds joined anti-China protests in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.

So Vietnam welcomes India’s support, just as it was buoyed last year by America’s declaration, aimed at China’s perceived assertiveness, of a “national interest” in freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. Of Vietnam’s partners in the Association of South-East Asian Nations, Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines also have partial claims in the sea. Vietnam naturally would like to present as united a front as possible against China’s claims.

It is against this background that some Indian strategists see an opportunity: Vietnam could be “India’s Pakistan”, a loyal all y, as Pakistan is for China, that exerts indirect, debilitating pressure on its strategic rival. Harsh Pant, a professor of defence studies at King’s College, London, argues that Vietnam offers India an entry-point, through which it can “penetrate China’s periphery”.

Tweaking China appeals to Indian diplomats, who habitually complain that their big neighbour refuses to make room for their own country’s rise. Behind that resentment lurks irritation at China’s effort to exert influence in India’s own backyard, not just through its “all-weather” friendship with Pakistan, but in Bangladesh, Myanmar, Nepal and Sri Lanka as well. Indeed, on Mr Sang’s heels in India came Myanmar’s president, Thein Sein, as India

attempts to make up diplomatic ground it has lost to China.

India also wants to push back against what it sees as Chinese provocations. Among these is the apparent Chinese stoking of the unresolved territorial disputes that led to the 1962 war. In recent years it has revived its claim to most of Arunachal Pradesh. No wonder backing Vietnamese claims in the South China Sea appeals to some Indian hawks. Already, in July, an Indian naval ship off Vietnam ignored a radio warning, apparently from the

Chinese navy, that it was entering Chinese waters.

China resents anything that smacks of efforts to thwart its rise as a global power. Talk of India’s selling Vietnam the BrahMos missiles it has developed jointly with Russia is still speculative. But Chinese strategists will fret about the purpose of the regular “security dialogue” agreed on during Mr Sang’s visit. It comes as Indian press reports suggest India has decided to deploy BrahMos missiles in Arunachal, pointed at Chinese-controlled Tibet. Behind India’s assertiveness and its closer ties with Vietnam, China de tects America’s hand. In July Hillary Clinton, the secretary of state, urged India “to engage east and act east as well”. Vietnam’s Vietnam

But to see India and Vietnam as compliant partners in an American-orchestrated anti-China front is off the mark for three reasons. Both countries are fiercely independent. Neither is going to do America’s bidding, and Vietnam is certainly not going to be India’s Pakistan. Second, their relations are about far more than China. They go back centuries (it is Indo-China, after all) and have been improving for decades. Sanjaya Baru, editor of the Business Standard, an Indian newspaper, and former spokesman for the prime minister, has called it “perhaps the most well-rounded bilateral

relationship that India has with any count ry”.

Third, both insist—plausibly—that they want good relations with China, now India’s biggest trading partner. And after all, Mr Trong was in China even as Mr Sang was in India. Hu Jintao, China’s president, was reported as counselling Vietnam to “stick to using dialogue and consultations to handle properly problems in bilateral relations.” Of course, if China itself had been consistent in following Mr Hu’s advice, the improvement in relations between India and Vietnam might not have such an impetus behind it, and, viewed from Beijing, might seem far less sinister.

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来源于https://www.wendangku.net/doc/116667273.html,/wordpress/(The Economist《经济学人》中文版)和https://www.wendangku.net/doc/116667273.html,/(《The Economist》《经济学人》中文版) 11月10, 2008 [2008.11.08] 美国大选:无限期望 America's election:Great expectations NO ONE should doubt the magnitude of what Barack Obama achieved this week. When the president-elect was born, in 1961, many states, and not just in the South, had laws on their books that enforced segregation, banned mixed-race unions like that of his parents and restricted voting rights. This week America can claim more credibly that any other western country to have at last become politically colour-blind. Other milestones along the road to civil rights have been passed amid bitterness and bloodshed. This one was marked by joy, white as well as black (see article). 相信无人质疑奥巴马于本周取胜的重要意义。这位新总统出生于1961年,那时美国很多州的法律都要求强化种族分离、禁止像奥巴马父母那样的跨族通婚、限制选举权利;这些不仅限于南部地区,而出现在全国范围内。从本周开始,美国可以更加自信的宣称:任何其他的西方国家都变得有些政治色盲了。在通向民权的道路上,其它里程碑似的重大历史事件都是在痛苦与血泊中通过的;而此次总统选举则以愉快著称,受到了包括白人及黑人在内的全国选民的称赞。 Mr Obama lost the white vote, it is true, by 43-55%; but he won almost exactly same share of it as the last three (white) Democratic candidates; Bill Clinton, Al Gore and John Kerry. And he won heavily among younger white voters. America will now have a president with half-brothers in Kenya, old schoolmates in Indonesia and a view of the world that seems to be based on respect rather than confrontation. 奥巴马丢掉了大约43%-55%的白人选票,这是不争的事实;但他与过去三位白人民主党候选人–克林顿、戈尔和肯尼迪–得到的白人选票几乎相同。同时,他在年轻一代的白人选民中取得了重大胜利。这位新总统有一个同父异母的兄弟在肯尼亚,有老同学在印尼,他的世界观似乎建立在尊重而不是对抗的基础之上。 That matters. Under George Bush America’s international standing has sunk to awful lows. This week Americans voted in record-smashing numbers for many reasons, but one of them was an abhorrence of how their shining city’s reputation has been tarnished. Their country will now be easier for its friends to like and harder for its foes to hate. 这很重要。在布什治下,美国的国际声誉降到了糟糕地步。本周美国选民的投票数量突破了历史纪录,其中原因很多,有一个就是他们对曾经辉煌无比的城市形象已然黯淡无光而感到愤恨。现在他们的国家将会更易赢得朋友的喜爱,而不易引起敌人的仇恨。 In its own way the election illustrates this redeeming effect. For the past eight years the debacle in Florida in 2000 has been cited (not always fairly) as an example of shabby American politics. Yet here was a clear victory delivered by millions of volunteers-and by the intelligent use of technology to ride a wave of excitement that is all too rare in most democracies. Mr Obama showed that, with the right message, a candidate with no money or machine behind him can build his own.

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