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译文题目一贸易能带来经济增长?

原稿题目一Does Trade Cause Growth?

原稿出处一Frankel J , and Romer D .Does Trade Cause Growth ? [J] . American Economic Review . 1999,89 (3): 379 -399.

贸易能带来经济增长?

1.构建模型

A背景

我们基本的想法可以表述为使用三个简单的等式模型。首先,国家i的平均收入的函数包括:与其他国家经济交往(简称“国际贸易”),国内经济交往(“国内贸易”)和其他相关因素。

(1).

这里是个人收入,是国际贸易,是国内贸易,是与收入相关的其他影响因素。已正如大量的文献对贸易描述的那样,贸易可以通过很多途径影响收入,贸易通过比较优势,开发来自大市场的递增收益,通过交流和旅游交换思想,通过投资和开发新产品传播科技,从而使得专业分工更加显著。因为各种因素相互作用共同促进,我们的方法不能确定具体是哪种贸易方式影响收入。

另外两个方程式包含了国际贸易和国内贸易的决定因素。国际贸易的函数包括,是一个国家与另一个国家的接近度和其他因素。

(2)

类似的,国内贸易的函数包括国家大小,和其他因素。

(3)

三个等式中的剩余因素,和,很有可能相互关联。比如说,那些拥有良好的交通系统或者政府的政策的国家,能够促进竞争并能够依赖市场分配资源,具有地理优势给他们带来大量的国际和国内贸易,贸易又给他们带来了大量的收入。我们假设分析的关键是判定国家的地理特征(他们的和)与另外的等式(1)和(3)是没有关联的。相似度和规模不会被收入或者其他因素影响,而政府政策可以影响收入。我们回顾引言,除了作用于该国居民人数与外国人或者其他人之间的相互影响,我们很难想出有效的方法证明相似度和规模可以影响收入。

给出P和S与不相关联的假设。通过变量Y,T,W,P和S,我们可以计算公式(1):P,S与T,W有关[通过公式(2)和公式 (3)] ,并且与无关(通过鉴别假设)。不幸的是,没有关于国内贸易的数据。我们希望数据的判别方法与国际贸易相似。所以我

们希望有一种测量方法可以把个体在国家中和跨越或在并存在多个公司内的商品和服务的价值进行转化。这种方法可能需要多个国家的多个时间段GDP。但是没有这样的方法存在。为了解决这个问题,我们把公式(3)替换进公式(1)得到。

(4).

我们假设和是与混合而成的剩余因素不相关的。结果是公式(4)可

以通过关键变量Pi 和 Si判断出来。注意公式(4)推论出来的判断不仅是——国际贸易影响收入,而且——国家的规模也影响收入。因为因素的两个组成部分不能单独分开,不能单独的从得到国内贸易影响收入的判断。

正如我们在引言中讨论的(下文证实的),Pi 和 Si是负相关的:国家越大,从国外来的居民就更具有代表性。其结果是如果我们在公式(4)中不控制规模,Pi 将会与剩余的因素呈负相关,也不会是合乎逻辑的因素。显而易见的,小国家可能可以简单的参与更多的国际贸易,因为他们参与更少的国内贸易。国际贸易中的一部分地理因素不能被用来判定贸易对收入是否有影响。简单的说,如果我们不能控制公式(4)中的,Si将会和剩余的因素呈负相关。所以,我们的方法要求我们验证国际贸易和国家规模的影响。

为了证明公式(4)我们需要对4个变量进行赋值:收入(Y),国际贸易(T),规模(S),相似度(P)。我们可以通过常规的方法来测定前三个变量。我们以个人真实收入来测定收入。根据常规标准,我们通过进口加上出口除以GDP来测定国际贸易。显然没有一个完美的办法来测定一个国家与另一个国家之间经济相互作用的关系,这个问题我们回到第二章节,第E小节最后,理论提供了一个建议关于测量规模的最好的方法。我们在此采用两种比较原生态的测量方法,人口和面积,都可以调查到。在结论的解释过程中包括大小,我们致力于关于数据中的人口和规模加总得到的系数。结果是,我们要考虑人口和面积的增加的影响,并且假设人口密度的不变。这样的改变明显的增加了国内贸易的范围。

Does trade cause growth?

I. Constructing the Instrument

A. Background

Our basic ideas can be described using a simple three-equation model. First, average income in country i is a function of economic interactions with other countries ("international trade" for short), economic interactions within the country ("within-country trade"), and other factors:

(1).

Here is income per person, is international trade, is within-country trade, and reflects other influences on income. As the vast literature on trade describes, there are many channels through which trade can affect income-notably specialization according to comparative advantage, exploitation of increasing returns from larger markets, exchange of ideas through communication and travel, and spread of technology through investment and exposure to new goods. Because proximity promotes all of these types of interactions, our approach cannot identify the specific mechanisms through which trade affects income.

The other two equations concern the determinants of international and within-country trade. International trade is a function of a country's proximity to other countries, , and other factors:

(2).

Similarly, within-country trade is a function of the country's size, , and other factors:

(3)

The residuals in these three equations, , , and , are likely to be correlated. For example, countries with good transportation systems, or with government policies that promote competition and reliance on markets to allocate resources, are likely to have high international and within-country

trade given their geographic characteristics, and high incomes given their trade. The key identifying assumption of our analysis is that

countries' geographic characteristics (their 's and's) are uncorrelated with the residuals in equations (1) and (3). Proximity and size are not affected by income or by other factors, such as government policies, that affect income. And as we observe in the introduction, it is difficult to think of important ways that proximity and size might affect income other than through their impact on how much a country's residents interact with foreigners and with one another.

Given the assumption that P and S are uncorrelated with , data on Y, T, W, P, and S would allow us to estimate equation (1) by instrumental variables: P and S are correlated with T and W [by (2) and (3)], and are uncorrelated with (by our identifying assumption). Unfortunately, however, there are no data on within-country trade. Ideally, we would want data comparable to measures of international trade. That is, we would want a measure of the value of the exchange of all goods and services among individuals within a country, both across and within firms. This measure would probably be many times GDP for most countries. But no such measure exists. To address this problem, we substitute (3) into (1) to obtain

(4).

Our identifying assumption implies that and are uncorrelated with the composite residual, . Thus (4) can be estimated by instrumental variables, with Pi and Si (and the constant) as the instruments. Note that estimation of (4) yields an estimate not only of , international trade's impact on income, but also of , country size's impact on income. Since the two components of this coefficient are not identified separately, one cannot obtain an estimate of , the effect of within-country trade on income. But as long as A is positive —that is, as long as larger countries have more within-country trade-the sign of is the same as the sign of . Thus, although we cannot estimate the

magnitude of the impact of within-country trade on income, we can obtain

evidence about its sign.

As we argue in the introduction (and verify below), Pi and Si are negatively correlated: the larger a country is, the farther its typical resident is from other countries. Thus if we do not control for size in (4), Pi will be negatively correlated with the residual, and thus will not be a valid instrument. Intuitively, smaller countries may engage in more trade with other countries simply because they engage in less within-country trade. This portion of the geographic variation in international trade cannot be used to identify trade's

impact on income. Similarly, if we fail to control for in (4), Si will be negatively correlated with the residual. Thus, our approach requires us to examine the impacts of both international trade and country size.

To estimate (4), we need data on four variables: income (Y), international trade (T), size (S), and proximity (P). We measure the first three in the usual ways. Our measure of income is real income per person. Following standard practice, we measure international trade as imports plus exports divided by GDP. This is clearly an imperfect measure of economic interactions with other countries, an issue we return to in Section II, subsection Finally, theory provides little guidance about the best measure of size. We therefore use two natural measures, population and area, both in logs. In interpreting the results concerning size, we focus on the sum of the coefficients on log population and log area. Thus we consider the impact of an increase in population and area together, with no change in population density. Such a change clearly increases the scope for within-country

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参考文献 一、翻译理论与实践相关书目 谢天振主编. 《当代国外翻译理论导读》. 天津:南开大学出版社,2008. Jeremy Munday. 《翻译学导论——理论与实践》Introducing Translation Studies---Theories and Applications. 李德凤等译. 北京:商务印书馆,2007. 包惠南、包昂. 《中国文化与汉英翻译》. 北京:外文出版社, 2004. 包惠南. 《文化语境与语言翻译》. 北京:中国对外翻译出版公司. 2001. 毕继万. 《世界文化史故事大系——英国卷》. 上海:上海外语教育出版社, 2003. 蔡基刚. 《英汉汉英段落翻译与实践》. 上海:复旦大学出版社, 2001. 蔡基刚. 《英汉写作对比研究》. 上海:复旦大学出版社, 2001. 蔡基刚. 《英语写作与抽象名词表达》. 上海:复旦大学出版社, 2003. 曹雪芹、高鄂. 《红楼梦》. 陈定安. 《英汉比较与翻译》. 北京:中国对外翻译出版公司, 1991. 陈福康. 《中国译学理论史稿》(修订本). 上海:上海外语教育出版社. 2000. 陈生保. 《英汉翻译津指》. 北京:中国对外翻译出版公司. 1998. 陈廷祐. 《英文汉译技巧》. 北京:外语教学与研究出版社. 2001. 陈望道. 《修辞学发凡》. 上海:上海教育出版社, 1979. 陈文伯. 《英汉翻译技法与练习》. 北京:世界知识出版社. 1998. 陈中绳、吴娟. 《英汉新词新义佳译》. 上海:上海翻译出版公司. 1990. 陈忠诚. 《词语翻译丛谈》. 北京:中国对外翻译出版公司, 1983. 程希岚. 《修辞学新编》. 吉林:吉林人民出版社, 1984. 程镇球. 《翻译论文集》. 北京:外语教学与研究出版社. 2002. 程镇球. 《翻译问题探索》. 北京:商务印书馆, 1980. 崔刚. 《广告英语》. 北京:北京理工大学出版社, 1993. 单其昌. 《汉英翻译技巧》. 北京:外语教学与研究出版社. 1990. 单其昌. 《汉英翻译讲评》. 北京:对外贸易教育出版社. 1989. 邓炎昌、刘润清. 《语言与文化——英汉语言文化对比》. 北京:外语教学与研究出版社, 1989. 丁树德. 《英汉汉英翻译教学综合指导》. 天津:天津大学出版社, 1996. 杜承南等,《中国当代翻译百论》. 重庆:重庆大学出版社, 1994. 《翻译通讯》编辑部. 《翻译研究论文集(1894-1948)》. 北京:外语教学与研究出版社. 1984. 《翻译通讯》编辑部. 《翻译研究论文集(1949-1983)》. 北京:外语教学与研究出版社. 1984. . 范勇主编. 《新编汉英翻译教程》. 天津:南开大学出版社. 2006. 方梦之、马秉义(编选). 《汉译英实践与技巧》. 北京:旅游教育出版社. 1996. 方梦之. 《英语汉译实践与技巧》. 天津:天津科技翻译出版公司. 1994. 方梦之主编. 《译学辞典》. 上海:上海外语教育出版社. 2004. 冯翠华. 《英语修辞大全》,北京:外语教学与研究出版社, 1995. 冯庆华. 《文体与翻译》. 上海:上海外语教育出版社, 2002. 冯庆华主编. 《文体翻译论》. 上海:上海外语教育出版社. 2002. 冯胜利. 《汉语的韵律、词法与句法》. 北京:北京大学出版社, 1997. 冯志杰. 《汉英科技翻译指要》. 北京:中国对外翻译出版公司. 1998. 耿占春. 《隐喻》. 北京:东方出版社, 1993.

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