waiwen

ORIGINAL ARTICLE

New energy vehicles in China:policies,demonstration,

and progress

Huiming Gong &Michael Q.Wang &Hewu Wang

Received:18December 2011/Accepted:8January 2012/Published online:3March 2012#Springer Science+Business Media B.V .(outside the USA)2012

Abstract Since 2009,China has become the largest new vehicle market in the world.To address the energy security and urban air-pollution concerns that emerge from rapid vehicle population growth,China has initiated the Thousands of V ehicles,Tens of Cities (TVTC)Program to accelerate the new energy vehicle (NEV)commercialization.In this paper,we summarize the efforts made by the Chinese government since 1995in the areas of research and development,demonstration,and communalization of NEVs;evaluate the progress of NEV demonstration;and provide some recommendations for future development.Our analysis has determined that the deployment of NEVs for the TVTC Program is lagging behind the original plan and,on average,only 26–36%of the goals have been attained by October 2011.Although China has approved many NEV models for sale,significantly more than 50%of them are not in production.On the other hand,stimulated by the policy shift,electric vehicle production has increased considerably,thereby contributing 23%and 44%of the total NEV production in 2010and 2011,respectively.Additionally,because of the constraints imposed by price and technology maturity,lead-acid battery technology is a substantial factor in the high-volume sales of top NEV car models.Keywords New energy vehicle .Hybrid electric vehicle .Fuel cell vehicle .Battery electric vehicle .Chinese electric vehicles

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2013)18:207–228

DOI 10.1007/s11027-012-9358-6

H.Gong :M.Q.Wang :H.Wang

Center for Transportation Research,Argonne National Laboratory,9700South Cass Avenue,Argonne,IL 60439,USA

M.Q.Wang

e-mail:mqwang@https://www.wendangku.net/doc/4b7444825.html,

H.Wang

e-mail:wanghw@https://www.wendangku.net/doc/4b7444825.html,

H.Gong (*)

the China Sustainable Energy Program,the Energy Foundation,Rm.2403CITIC Bldg.,Jianguomenwai Dajie No.19,Beijing 100004,People ’s Republic of China

e-mail:gonghuiming@https://www.wendangku.net/doc/4b7444825.html,

H.Wang

State Key Laboratory of Automotive Safety and Energy,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,People ’s Republic of China

1Introduction

Since2000,China has experienced a rapid growth in new vehicle sales.By2009,China had become the largest new vehicle market in the world(Fig.1).The average annual growth rate of new vehicle sales in the past10years has exceeded24%(National Bureau of Statistics 2000–2010).As a result,imported oil continues to increase due to almost stagnated domestic oil production,while the total oil consumption is growing quickly.In1993,China became a net oil importer,and by2010more than54%of the crude oil supply relied on imports (Fig.2)(National Bureau of Statistics1993–2010).

Meanwhile,vehicles increasingly concentrate in the mega cities and city clusters in the eastern part of China and capitals of the middle provinces,mainly because of the relatively well-developed economy and high personal income level.Because of imbalanced vehicle stock distribution,as well as industry relocation from the east to the west and from urban areas to rural areas in China,cities are suffering from poor air quality increasingly attributable to vehicle tailpipe emissions.The PM101data from32Chinese cities for2009collected by World Health Organization(WHO)showed that none of the cities met the WHO guideline of an annual mean limit of20μg/m3.Some cities,such as Beijing and Jinan,far exceeded the limit and reached about120μg/m3(WHO2011).Despite China’s great efforts to improve its air quality,the current urban air quality is still poor enough to pose a health threat.

Realizing such challenges as energy security,urban air pollution,global warming,and economy structure adjustment,China has chosen new energy vehicles(NEVs)as one of the solutions to these problems.Accordingly,China hopes to leapfrog its auto industry to become globally competitive with advanced vehicle technologies.The reduction of trans-portation’s oil consumption and potentially boosting of the economy development by NEVs are straightforward.But their environmental impacts in China are complicated because Chinese electricity is still generated primarily from coal.Huo et al.(2010)analyzed CO2 and air pollutant implications of electric vehicles(EVs)in China and found that while EVs may not offer much benefit in reducing CO2emissions with current Chinese electricity generation mix,they may have CO2reductions in future.Furthermore,EVs could improve urban air quality by moving vehicle tailpipe emissions from urban areas to remote areas where electricity is generated.In addition,emissions of electric power plants are easier to clean up than those of millions of vehicles.

In the Chinese context,NEVs include hybrid electric vehicles(HEVs),especially plug-in hybrid electric vehicles(PHEVs);battery electric vehicles(BEVs);and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs).However,the definition sometimes covers broader vehicle technologies,such as alternative fuel vehicles.In the past10years,the national government,local governments, academic research organizations,and private companies have invested more than$1.79 billion to carry out NEV research and development(R&D),pilots and demonstrations,and commercialization(MOST2011a).

China is not the only country that devotes to transportation electrification.Many other countries and regions,such as the United States and Germany,have set up goals to develop NEVs as well.For example,the United States plans to have1million cumulative NEVs on road by2015and provides$2.4billion of loans to three of the world’s first electric vehicle factories in Tennessee,Delaware,and California and$2billion of grants to support30factories that produce batteries,motors,and other NEV components(https://www.wendangku.net/doc/4b7444825.html,,2011).Germany launched 1Particulate matter with a diameter of10μm or less.

a campaign to put 1million electric vehicles on road by 2020and planned to provide $705million of financial support (https://www.wendangku.net/doc/4b7444825.html,,2009).

Although tremendous efforts on research,development,and deployment of NEVs have been made in China,their progress status has not been summarized and evaluation of Chinese NEV evaluation has not been done,resulting in less understanding (and sometimes confusion)of Chinese NEV development outside of China.This paper is intended to summarize NEV activities in China,including policies and demonstration activities;evaluate Chinese NEV technology demonstration and commercialization progress;and provide some observations for Chinese NEV development in the future.The first year of the Chinese government ’s 12th Five-Year Plan (FYP)is 2011.We hope that this paper can be helpful in identifying Chinese NEV promotion barriers and thus in improving future NEV demonstration programs in China.2Data sources

Data on Chinese NEVs are scattered among various sources,which are mostly in Chinese language.To conduct analysis for this paper,we draw data from these sources:national and local governmental programs;27vehicle model bulletins issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT),as of October 20,2011;the Energy Savings and New

Energy Fig.2Annual crude oil consumption and domestic production in China (National Bureau of Statistics 1993–

2010)Fig.1Annual new vehicle sales in China (National Bureau of Statistics 2000–2010)

Vehicle Yearbook(2010);government documents(such as reports and public education materials);workshops sponsored by government agencies;surveys of academic researchers and NEV users;government websites;key public media coverage;and other web-based reports.

Although we made our best effort to collect the most up-to-date and reliable data,there are data limitations,especially in data regarding NEV production and on-road NEV popu-lation.Production data that we collected were limited to hybrid electric buses,hybrid electric cars,battery electric buses,and battery electric cars.Production data for both special purpose vehicles(SPVs)2and fuel-cell vehicles(FCVs)were not available,though their production volume is relatively small.In addition,on-road NEV population data from25demonstration cities covered different time periods,with5cities having aggregate statistical data only through the end of2010.

We used the annual and cumulative number of certified NEV manufacturers and models by technologies and vehicle categories to analyze the NEV research and development (R&D)activities and development status and trends.In addition,we collected annual and cumulative NEV production volumes by technologies and vehicle categories to verify market choices of products and technologies.More importantly,we compared on-road NEV population in each demonstration city with the goal of each city so that NEV demonstration progress in each city and nationwide can be evaluated.

3NEV policy development

While the official definition of NEVs was not available until2007,NEV-related work began much earlier—in fact,in the1990s.During the process of NEV R&D and demonstration,the policy focus has changed,thereby reflecting the NEV development situation and what China preferred at different stages.At the beginning,there was no clear policy preference.Then hybrid technology became a high interest,mainly due to the introduction of the Toyota Prius and other hybrid products in the late1990s and during the10th FYP period.Following that phase,fuel cell technology became more promising.Recently,pure electrification has become the focus. Figure3summarizes the key policies and programs that China has had in place since1995.

The9th FYP(1995–2000)had two major developments for BEVs.One was to formally highlight the importance of BEVs by adding BEVs into the National Key Science& Technology Industrialization Projects(National Electric Vehicle Test and Demonstration Zone2004).The other development was the Clean Vehicle—Clean up the Air Program that was launched by13ministries together in1999(MOST1999;MOST et al.1999).In this program,clean vehicles covered a broad area,including clean conventional internal-combustion engine vehicles,compressed natural gas vehicles(CNGVs),liquefied petroleum gas vehicles(LPGVs)(two alternative fuel vehicles),HEVs,and BEVs.During this FYP,an EV test and demonstration zone was established in Shantou,Guangdong Province,and an EV standard technical committee was set up to lead EV standard development.

Based on the9th FYP results,the Ministry of Science and Technology(MOST)estab-lished an Electric Vehicle Key Project under the National High-tech R&D Program(the863 Program)in the10th FYP(2001–2005)in2001(Zhang2001).And in2004,the National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC)revised the Auto Industry Policy and developed an Energy Savings Medium-and Long-Term Plan,in which the auto industry was first identified as one of the pillar industries for the national economy by2010,and 2SPVs include garbage trucks,street sweeping trucks,construction trucks,tourist vehicles,post office vehicles,etc.

hybridization and car dieselization were the technology focus (NDRC 2004a ,b ).Within these five years,China specified and established R&D focuses on three electric drive technologies (fuel cell,electric,and hybrid vehicles)and three associated technology components (battery,electric motor,and electric control system)and successfully developed several FCV ,BEV ,and HEV prototypes.The funding size,including both national and local governments and enterprises,reached $290million.

The most recent five years (the 11th FYP,2006–2010)established a milestone for NEV development in China by moving NEVs from the laboratories or prototypes to the market and road in a large volume.In 2006,the State Council adopted the China Science and Technology Medium-and Long-Term Development Plan,which for the first time mentioned the NEV term in the official policies and specified focusing on hybrid vehicles,alternative fuel vehicles,and fuel cell vehicles (the State Council 2006).At the same time,MOST continued its support of the NEV and initiated the Energy Savings and New Energy Vehicle Key Project under the 863Program (MOST 2006a ,b ).During the 11th FYP,the total funding,including both national and local governments and private sectors,exceeded $1.5billion (Fig.4).The Management Rule on New Energy Vehicle Production,adopted by the NDRC in 2007,officially defined the term,NEV ,for the first time.Based on the definition,NEVs include HEVs,BEVs (including solar-panel-powered vehicles),FCVs,hydrogen internal-combustion engine vehicles,and other vehicles with new fuels,such as di-methyl ether and high-efficient energy storage capacitors (NDRC 2007).

Due to the worldwide economy crisis,China issued 10industry adjustment and renovation plans in 2009,and the Auto Industry Adjustment and Renovation Plan was among them.The plan set a series of vehicle annual sales goals with incentive policies to support.For example,new vehicle sales should exceed 10million in 2009,and the average growth rate between 2009and 2011should be at least

10%.Fig.3Key Chinese NEV policies and programs since 1995

Most importantly,the plan required initiating the Energy Savings and New Energy Vehicle Pilot Program and set the goal that,by 2011,NEV sales should account for 5%of the total sales of light-duty passenger vehicles (the State Council 2009).As a result of the auto industry stimulus plan,China exceeded the United States as the world ’s largest new vehicle market in 2009,and the Ministry of Finance (MOF)and MOST launched the NEV demonstration and promotion program by issuing the Notice on Implementing Energy Savings and New Energy Vehicle Pilot Program (MOF et al.2009).This pilot program was also widely called the Thousands of Vehicles,Tens of Cities (TVTC)Program.

In order to help China adjust its economic structure toward resource savings and move in an environment friendly direction,and recognizing the strategic impacts of NEVs on the auto industry in the future,the State Council issued Decisions on Accelerating the Cultiva-tion &Development of Emerging Strategic Industries in October 2010,and it selected NEVs as one of the seven strategic industries.In the policy,plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicles were further highlighted as the focus for demonstration and commercialization (the State Council 2010).Meanwhile,the 12th Science &Technology Development FYP clearly stated pure electric driving as the goal and claimed that the electric vehicle population should meet 1million by 2015(MOST 2011b ).

4The thousands of vehicles,tens of cities program

The TVTC Program focuses on the demonstration of HEVs,BEVs,and FCVs in public service vehicle fleets,including buses,taxis,government vehicles,and special purpose vehicles.In January 2009,MOF and MOST approved 13Tier I cities to carry out the demonstration (MOF et al.2009).Following that,MIIT and NDRC joined the program and approved seven additional cities (Tier II)in May 2010and five more cities (Tier III)in August 2010for NEV demonstration,together with MOF and MOST (MOF et al.2010a ,b ).Meanwhile,the four ministries approved 6cities among these 25cities to carry out pilots to subsidize private NEV buyers,which support only plug-in hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles (MOF et al.2010c ).

These 25pilot cites are located in 21provinces.One important reason to approve these cities is their overall human population and vehicle stock numbers.By the end of 2010,these 25cities together accounted for 18%and 33%of the national total human population and vehicle stock,respectively.The 21provinces accounted for 80%and 86%of the national total human population and vehicle stock,respectively (Fig.5)(National Bureau of

Statistics Fig.4Chinese NEV investment in the 10th and 11th 5-Year Plans (MOST 2011)

2011;Ding 2011).If NEV development becomes successful,a significant portion of the Chinese population will benefit from the air-pollution reduction features of the NEVs.

Both the national government and local governments provide financial support to the NEV demonstration in the 25cities.National subsidies mainly cover the extra cost to buy NEVs,while the financial support of local governments partially covers the extra purchase cost of the vehicle and focuses on infrastructure development and vehicle maintenance.The amount of subsidies that each vehicle could receive depends on the vehicle ’s category,technology type,and vehicle efficiency performance.For example,hybrid electric cars could receive a subsidy of 50,000RMB per car from the national government if the car could save at least 40%fuel relative to regular cars and its electric power ratio exceeds 30%.3On the other hand,incentives for BEVs and FCVs are much simpler,and they could receive subsidies of 60,000and 250,000RMB per car,respectively.The NEV buses have similar technical performance requirements,but receive large subsidies per bus.Hybrid electric buses,battery electric buses,and fuel cell buses could receive as much as 420,000,500,000,and 600,000RMB per bus (MOF et al.2009).Figure 6provides more details about the amount of subsidies that NEV types may receive from the national government based on the vehicle category,technology type,and performance.

Based on the approved local demonstration plans from 25cities,by the end of 2012the NEV demonstration goals of these 25cities could add up to 52,623vehicles in the public service vehicle fleet.Figure 7summarizes the cities and their NEV demonstration goals in the public service vehicle fleet by three tiers,as well as the 21provinces where these cities are located.Among the cities,Shenzhen (Guangdong Province),Beijing,and Shanghai have the most ambitious goals,9,000,5,000,and 4,157,respectively (MOST 2011a ).Some local governments have adopted even higher goals than the plan in the TVTC Program.For example,Guangzhou (Guangdong Province)and Chengdu (Sichuan Province)have decided to demonstrate 2,600and 1,900NEVs,compared with the goals of 2,050and 1,030approved by the national government for the two cities (MOST 2011c ;Chengdu Municipal Government 2010).The six pilot cities for private NEV buyer subsidies also are displayed on the figure,and the total goals reach 129,100in the private vehicle fleet (Table 1)(MOST 2011a

).Fig.5Human population &vehicle stock shares from 25cities and 21provinces to national totals in China 3The ratio is that of rated power of the electric motor to the sum of the rated power of the electric motor and the on-board engine.

(a) Passenger cars

(b) Buses

Fig.6National subsidies for NEVs as functions of the electric power ratio and energy saving level(1,000 RMB/vehicle)in China(numbers in black are for HEVs;numbers in red are for EVs and FCVs)

5NEV development status and progress

Each of the25cities has an approved NEV demonstration goal by2012.We compared the number of NEVs demonstrated on the road by date to their goal to indicate the progress of NEV demonstration in individual cities.In addition,we examined the number of certified NEV makers,models,and production volume by date to show the growth pattern and technology development.

5.1NEV makers and models

From2005to October20,2011(the most recent date for which we could obtain data for this paper),China certified405NEV models from76makers(Fig.8).4Of these,343models from70makers were approved to receive subsidies after launching the TVTC Program (MIIT2009–2011;CA TARC et al.2010).Comparatively,the United States approved subsidies to44hybrid electric and battery electric car models from17makers5(https://www.wendangku.net/doc/4b7444825.html,2011; https://www.wendangku.net/doc/4b7444825.html,2011).In fact,most NEV models,85%,were certified after2008.Among76makers,the median number of models per maker is only three,although the top maker has26NEV models. Moreover,20makers have only1model each.Figure9shows the NEV type mixes by vehicle type since2005.Buses were the dominant vehicle type from2005to2008,and they have remained the main vehicle type.The percentage of car models has not changed much,but the percentage of special purpose vehicle models apparently has increased.The emerging SPV models are reflected in the demonstration plan of most cities,where5%to68%of NEVs are SPVs.For example,Beijing plans to demonstrate5,000NEVs by2012,and3,380would be SPVs(MOST2011a).

From the technology aspect,hybrid vehicles definitely were the mainstream technology before2009.After that,impacted by the national policy direction shift to BEVs,the BEV models became popular.Several FCV models are certified for demonstration,but the number is quite small.Only14models are certified,mainly because of support to the Shanghai2010 World Expo.The FCV demonstration also occurred before2010,such as for the2008 Olympic Games,and some updated versions of those previously demonstrated models have been included in the recommended NEV model bulletin.

Overall,HEVs,BEVs,and FCVs account for41%,55%,and4%of the total NEV models,respectively.Buses,cars,and SPVs account for63%,21%,and16%of the total NEV models,respectively(Figs.9and10).

One interesting phenomenon is that almost every pilot province has NEV makers.Among the21provinces that have NEV pilot demonstration programs,only3provinces—Inner Mongolia,Yunnan,and Hebei—do not have their own NEV makers and certified models.Of the provinces with NEV makers,Beijing ranks as the first,with46NEV models.Most other provinces each have more than10NEV models(Fig.11).In addition,along with these21 provinces and25cities,other local governments have expressed a strong interest in NEV production.For example,Guangxi and Heilongjiang Provinces have no approved demon-stration cities,but they have NEV makers and certified models.This phenomenon does indicate that local governments,similar to the central government,aspire to have the NEV industry stimulate their economic development.

Although numerous NEV makers and models are certified by the central government,we found that many of the makers do not produce NEVs,and many of the NEV models are not 4The recent certified NEV models are listed in the27th Auto Product Bulletin,dated October20,2011.

5FCVs are not included because there are no models approved for receiving subsidies.

in production.For example,only 55%of electric bus (E-bus)makers and 45%of electric car (E-car)makers are producing BEVs,although hybrid bus and car makers are in a better situation.6In addition,on average,only 33%of the certified 324hybrid and electric vehicle models are in production.For example,only 28%of hybrid bus models are in production (Fig.12).

5.2NEV production,stock,and demonstration progress

The NEV production volume has increased steadily from 2005to 2011.Especially since 2009,the volume has jumped to above 7,000,inspired by the TVTC Program.In 2006,mostly due to the introduction of the Toyota Prius,the NEV production reached a high volume (even though the Prius was not produced in China).By August 2011,the cumulative NEV production exceeded 22,000,with most —16,740NEVs or 76%of the total —produced after 2008(Fig.13).Figure 11also shows the NEV production distribution among the provinces from 2010to August 2011.7Nineteen provinces produced 14,152NEVs,or 64%of the total,since 2005.However,only 6provinces had a volume that exceeded 500.Guangdong Province,Anhui Province,and Hunan Province were the top three and produced 4,600,2,747,and 1,613NEVs,respectively (https://www.wendangku.net/doc/4b7444825.html, 2011).

The NEV mix shows that hybrid technology dominated the products before 2010.After the national policy began to shift to pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles (conventional hybrid vehicles are treated as one type of energy-saving vehicle),electric vehicle production increased significantly.However,cumulatively,hybrid vehicles are still 6Once a maker or model does not have production for two continuous years,we assume that the maker or model is inactive and no longer exists.7Because of limited data,we were unable to allocate NEV production data before 2010to models,makers,and

provinces.

Fig.7Thousands of Vehicles,Tens of Cities Program in China

the mainstream products —78%of the total NEV production —despite the number of electric vehicle models,which account for 55%of the total number of all NEV models.Nonetheless,the electrification trend is clear.The ratios of electric vehicle annual production to NEV production rose from 0%in 2005to 23%in 2010and to 44%by August 2011(Fig.14).Compared with conventional vehicle production,the NEV production is concentrated in a few makers and models,even though there are many NEV makers and certified models.Tables 2and 3summarize the production volumes of the top five makers and models for electric buses (E-buses),hybrid electric buses (H-buses),electric cars (E-cars),and hybrid electric cars (H-cars),respectively.The top five E-car and H-car makers account for more than 99%of the total,while the E-bus and H-bus makers have less concentration,but still more than 70%.The top five models account for 68%,77%,99%,and 90%of the total E-buses,H-buses,E-cars,and H-cars,respectively.

Both the E-car and H-bus categories are dominated by a single company that has significantly more production volume than the others.For example,Cherry produced 1,615battery electric cars,which accounts for 71%of the total battery electric car produc-tion.Because Cherry produces only the QQ3in a large volume,this model accounts for 71%of the total battery electric car production as well.The hybrid bus made by Wuzhoulong accounts for 45%of the total hybrid electric bus production.Technical specifications of the QQ3model show that it uses a lead-acid battery.The model has a top speed of 80km/h and a driving range of 120km at a 30-km/h steady speed.The top-selling HEV car,the Junjie FSV

,Fig.8Number of certified NEV makers and models in China

Table 1NEV goals in six pilot cities for private NEV buyer subsidies in China

City Beijing Shenzhen

(Guangdong)

Hefei (Anhui)Hangzhou (Zhejiang)Shanghai Changchun (Jilin)Goal 30,00025,00021,10020,00017,00016,000

also uses a lead-acid battery and has only basic hybridization technology for the start and stop functions.Due to reduced performance and use of a lead-acid battery,the cost of these models is significantly lower than that of other models equipped with a lithium-ion battery and capable of high performance.This may explain why these low-tech,low-cost models have significantly high production volumes.We also found that lead-acid batteries are used in buses.Wuzhoulong produced about 200lead-acid,battery-powered hybrid buses in 2010.However,because of the unavailability of data we could not determine how many buses of the total 1,201hybrid buses from Wuzhoulong used a lead-acid battery.The significant sales by Wuzhoulong are indeed due to the low-cost,lead-acid battery,as well as the intense promotion of NEVs by the Shenzhen government during the UNIVERSIADE in 2011.We also compared NEV bus and car makers with conventional bus and car makers.Data show that most top 10conventional bus and car makers have joined the NEV production,but

(a) Annual

(b) Cumulative

Fig.10NEV type mix by vehicle technology in China (a) Annual

(b) Cumulative

Fig.9NEV type mix by vehicle type in China

only some of them play an active role in developing NEVs (Tables 4and 5).Interestingly,new players or conventional makers that are not in a leading market position tend to be more active in the NEV market.For example,none of the top 3NEV bus makers come from the top 10conventional bus makers.Cherry and BYD rank first and third as NEV car makers,but they rank only seventh and ninth among the top 10conventional car makers (Auto Weekly 2011;China Association of Automobile Manufacturers 2011).This trend implies that the non-dominating,conventional vehicle makers may consider that NEVs offer a better opportunity to successfully compete against the dominating makers.

Despite the recent significant NEV production growth,compared with conventional vehicles,the NEV volume is still quite low.From 2008to 2011,the ratio of NEV buses to

(a) Makers

(b) Models

Fig.12Percentage of certified NEV makers and models that are in production in

China

Fig.11Distribution of NEV makers and models by province in China

conventional buses increased from 0.1%to 1.2%,while the ratio for NEV cars was tiny —only 0.04%in 2011(Fig.15).In 2009,the NEV car ratio encountered a big drop mainly for two reasons.First,the conventional vehicle production volume increased by 52%,stimulated by the incentive policies after the economy crisis.Second,NEV car production dropped from 2,002in 2008to 551in 2009,which indicates that NEV car production was not steady at that time.However,inspired by the national NEV pilot program,production became steady after 2009(https://www.wendangku.net/doc/4b7444825.html, 2011;China Association of Automobile Manufacturers 2008–2011).

The 25cities have been approved three times,and the progress of each tier city is different.Figure 16depicts the NEV population and the progress of these cities by tiers.After 31,15,and 12months,Tier I,II,and III cities have achieved 31%,16%,and 5%of their goals,respectively.

Figure 17summarizes the NEV demonstration progress of 25cities compared with the national average progress,as of October 2011.On average,26%of the total goals has been completed nationally.At the local level,Hefei (Anhui Province)has exceeded 50%of its goal.Seven Tier II and III cities have made progress of less than 10%.Among the 25cities,Shenzhen has the most ambitious goal —9,000NEVs.Because of this ambitious goal,Shenzhen did not rank at the top in terms of progress.Shenzhen completed only 26%of its goal,even though it has the highest NEV population,at 2,363(MOST 2011a ,c ;https://www.wendangku.net/doc/4b7444825.html, 2010;MBA Library 2011;Li 2011;Chen 2011;He 2011;Wu 2011).

(a) Annual

(b) Cumulative

Fig.13Annual and cumulative NEV production volume in

China Fig.14Ratios of electric vehicle production to NEV production in China

Name(production volume)

E-Bus BYD-Changsha(213),Shenma(202),Wuzhoulong(69),Changlong(57),Yixing(48)

H-Bus Wuzhoulong(1201),CSR-Times(447),Foton-Beijing(188),Shenma(186),Yutong(156), E-Car Cherry(1615),BYD(271),Haima(192),Jiangnan(181),Nissan-Zhengzou(17)

H-Car Brilliance(396),Chang’an(292),GAC-Toyota(236),BYD(167),Shanghai-GM(127)

The private NEV vehicle fleet is still quite small.Shenzhen and Hangzhou each have sold 800and162NEVs to private owners,which is about3.2%and0.8%of their goals, respectively(MOST2011c).

6Discussions

6.1Project monitoring and evaluation

In the past10years,China has invested a significant amount of funding to develop and commercialize NEVs.However,project monitoring and evaluation is lagging behind.This has been demonstrated from our research for this paper.We have attempted many ways to collect the most updated and reliable data from different sources in order to determine the status of the Chinese NEV program.However,there is no single source for such information. Data about NEV makers and models since2009have been obtained from the recommended NEV product bulletins released by the government.Makers and models before that time are based on information from the Energy Savings and New Energy Vehicle Yearbook(CAT-ARC2010),which is edited by the China Automotive Technology&Research Center (CATARC)and guided by the Technical Experts Committee for Energy Savings and NEV Key Project under the MOST863Program.The NEV demonstration goals for individual participating cities are from government documents and policies.The production volume is from both the Yearbook and the website sponsored by the Clean Vehicle Production Promotion Center,Energy Savings and NEV Key Project Office under the863Program, and CATARC.Vehicle population data have been gathered from government documents, workshops sponsored by the governments,government official websites,key media cover-age,and surveys to local cities.Even with such efforts,the NEV population data have limits. Among the25cities,5cities had NEV population data by2010,5cities had the data by March or April of2011,and15cities had the data by July to October2011.

Besides NEV sales and on-road stock,a strong program monitoring system could help collect data and information about NEV prices,performance and consumer feedback, investments,incentives,and infrastructure development.These data are essential for policy Table32011top five Chinese NEV models

Name(production volume)

E-Bus BYD-Changsha(213),Shenma(202),Wuzhoulong(53),Yixing(48),Changlong(36) H-Bus Wuzhoulong(1181),CSR-Times(407),Shenma(186),Foton(178),Dongfeng(100) E-Car QQ3(1615),E6(271),Haima(192),Zotye(120),Tongyue(59)

H-Car Junjie FSV(395),Camry(228),Zhixiang(200),F3DM(167),Buick(127)

Bus maker NEV Ranking in conventional bus production

Wuzhoulong1Below10

CSR Times2Below10

Sunwin3Below10

Foton45

Dongfeng5Below10

Jinlv67

Shenma7Below10

Ankai8Below10

Yutong93

Zhongtong1010 evaluation and improvement to ensure the program success.Both the national government and local governments have established leading official committees and offices to support the NEV development and demonstration.They are responsible not only for collecting all the data,but also for verifying the data and conducting the evaluation.However,our research has revealed that data collection and verification are not systematic and certainly need improvement.Also,a comprehensive evaluation of program progress still is not available.An annual evaluation mechanism and reporting will benefit the program and generate increased public awareness and support.

6.2Ambitious goals and technology reality

As of October2011,31months have passed since the13Tier I cities were approved to start the NEV demonstration.Only16months remain for them to meet their established goals. For Tier II and III cities,the situation is even more serious,since they were approved in2010 but had the same deadline.As explained above,the national average progress is only26%.8 The progress has been slower than anticipated for many reasons,such as overly ambitious goals,immature technology and products,high costs of NEVs,and the lack of adequate infrastructure.Realizing such a situation,it is understandable if the2012goal is not met on time.More realistically,the government may need to extend the demonstration project deadline so that Tier II and III cities could have enough time to meet their goals.Needless to say,goals for individual participating cities have indeed been ambitious.However,some cities and provinces themselves have adopted even more ambitious goals for2015.Among the25cities,9of them have adopted policies to set explicit NEV development goals by 2015,either by NEV production capacity or by economy output.The production capacity adds up to1.33million(Xiangfan Development and Reform Commission2009;Hangzhou Development and Reform Commission et al.2011;Zhengzhou Municipal Government 2011;Guangzhou Municipal Government2011;Shenzhen Municipal Government2009; Tangshan Municipal Government2010;Tianjin Science and Technology Commission 2010).Also,seven provinces have adopted policies to set up the provincial NEV goals, which add up to1.48million by2015(Fig.18)(Hunan Provincial Government2011;Zhou 2010;Jiangsu Provincial Government2010;Guangdong Provincial Government2010; 8Even considering the data update issue and assuming that all produced NEVs since2009go to25cities(i.e., 18,702NEVs by October2011),the average progress was only36%.

Henan Provincial Government 2010;Shandong Provincial Government 2009;Liaoning Provincial Government 2010).If all production capacity came into real production and sales,the NEV population by 2015would exceed the national goal in the 12th Science &Technology FYP.There must be a good balance between ambition and the ability to meet the goals.Otherwise,either poor products will penetrate into the market to satisfy the goals,or a large gap will exist between the goals and progress.

6.3Technology choices for current market shares or future potential

Although China has clarified the fuel cell,battery electric,and hybrid electric vehicles as the key vehicle technologies and the battery,electric motor,and electric control systems as the key automotive technologies to provide financial support,some confusion exists.The TVEC Program ’s incentives do not differentiate between lead-acid battery vehicles and advanced vehicles that use a lithium-ion battery.Moreover,both public HEVs and EVs could receive subsidies,while private NEV buyers could receive subsidies only if they purchase plug-in hybrid vehicles and battery electric vehicles.As introduced previously,a lead-acid battery was adopted for top-selling car models,and the performance of those models was inferior.Car maker

NEV Ranking in conventional car production Cherry

17GAC-Toyota

2Below 10BYD

39Brilliance

4Below 10JAC

5Below 10Chang ’an

65Jiangnan

7Below 10FAW-Haima

8Below 10Shanghai-GM

92Dongfeng 10Below

10

Fig.15Share of NEV bus and car annual production compared with total conventional bus and car annual production in China

Another vehicle category is SPVs,which play an important role in many cities ’demonstration plan.On average,about 20%of NEVs in 25cities are SPVs.In fact,the SPVs ’ratio in the Beijing ’s plan is as high as 68%.It may be a good strategy to build enough expertise and knowledge from vehicles with simple,low performance requirements before moving to fully functional competitive NEVs.Also,it is under-standable if vehicle performance is not sufficient enough at the beginning mainly due to cost-control reasons.However,the choice of current technologies and products should consider technology and product development in the future,and not focus only on meeting existing demonstration number goals.From this aspect,in order to be price competitive,it is fine to reduce the lithium-ion battery size,which may result in short mileage,low speed,and other power specifications.The products could work well,especially in circumstances such as an urban driving fleet with

SPVs.

Fig.16Chinese NEV population and the progress of each tier city in meeting their NEV goals by August

2011Fig.17NEV demonstration progress in 25cities in China by August 2011(%of NEV goal completed by each city)

6.4Local market protection

This analysis found that almost all NEV pilot provinces have their own NEV makers.Under such a situation,local governments tend to prioritize by using local products.The central government realizes this problem and requires local demonstration cities to open their markets for competition.It appears that this requirement has not resulted in meaningful action.We noticed that some government policies clearly encourage local market protection,especially through incentive policies and government vehicle purchases.If local market protection happens everywhere,it would be difficult for good products to have a large market share in order to reduce NEV overall costs and have high market penetration.In the end,the NEV development in China may not become competitive.

China probably has the highest number of conventional vehicle makers and models in the world.In the past decades,one of the key concerns for the central government has centered on how to consolidate its auto industry and a build strong,competitive industry.This problem is still not well solved,and NEV development seems to face the same issue (i.e.,too many NEV makers and NEV models within several years).The top NEV maker and model were reviewed above.If we removed the top maker/model,we would find that the aggregation is low.The government must develop policies to encourage good competition and industry consolidation to form several leading NEV companies nationally.

6.5NEV introduction and infrastructure requirements

PHEVs,EVs,and FCVs need new infrastructures to refuel them with electricity and hydrogen.Hydrogen refueling stations are mostly for the limited FCV demonstrations in large,concentrated events such as the 2008Beijing Olympics and the 2010Shanghai World Expo.At present,EVs are prioritized in Chinese NEV demonstration programs.Thus,the key infrastructure challenge is to establish EV charging stations.The urgency for developing an extensive EV charging station network may not be too high at the current stage because most demonstration cities now focus on public vehicle fleets for NEV applications and it is much easier to establish and manage the recharging infrastructure to meet the NEV fleet applications.However,with eventual penetration of NEVs into private vehicle owners,development of NEV charging infrastructure will be an important component for successful NEV deployment.Both the State Grid Cooperation of China and China Southern Power Grid are working closely with local governments to establish EV recharging infrastructure.

A Fig.182015NEV goals for local cities and provinces

few years ago,the charging connector standard between EVs and recharging stations was not developed.Only very recently,China adopted four standards to mandate all charging stations meet the same technical standards for EV charging stations(https://www.wendangku.net/doc/4b7444825.html,2011). Shenzhen(of Guangdong Province)has the most NEV population on road and is rapidly developing the charging infrastructure system.By August2011,Shenzhen has established 62charging stations,57of which are for bus charging;and it will have2,349charging poles by the end of2011(MOST2011c).In summary,China needs to strengthen the development of NEV recharging infrastructure to meet the demand of growing private NEV users in the6 demonstration cities and get ready for large-scale commercialization of NEVs.

7Conclusions

The TVTC Program establishes a milestone for commercializing NEVs in China—but the difficulties and challenges are real.Areas of concern include inferior technologies,immature products,and the lack of monitoring and evaluation.Meeting the NEV goals by the2012 deadline will be difficult for the individual participating cities.However,despite the slow progress of the program and the reality that some NEV technical performances may not meet expectations,there is no doubt that the NEV program conveys the appropriate signal for advanced vehicle technology development.China should continue the demonstration program and facilitate the necessary strengthening by providing close monitoring and evaluation, targeting financial support for advanced technologies such as lithium-ion batteries,updating policies for NEV products based on performance evaluation,and removing local market protection to encourage competition.A strong program monitoring and evaluation system will serve to identify problems,improve incentive policies,and ensure the success of the program. Acknowledgments This work was supported by the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy of the United States Department of Energy,under contract DE-AC02-06CH11357.The authors thank Dr.Hao Cai of Argonne National Laboratory for providing assistance for this paper.

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