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The new iPhone is sure to shatter previous sales records. It may also prove the moment to dump Apple shares.


Each new iPhone has sold as many units as all previous generations combined, Apple executives have joked internally according to recent trial testimony. And it isn't crazy to believe exponential growth can continue for at least one more. Combine pent-up demand among existing iPhone users looking to upgrade, with the possibility that the new model will finally be compatible with the world's largest carrier, China Mobile, and investors can expect explosive results.

据前不久的庭审证词显示,苹果高管在公司内部开玩笑时曾说,每款新iPhone 的销量都是之前所有几代产品的销量之和。认为至少另一款iPhone的销量也将呈现出这种增长模式并非不切实际的想法。那些想让手里iPhone更新换代的用户具有潜在需求,再加上新机型可能最终将与全球最大无线运营商中国移动(China Mobile)的网络兼容,基于这两个因素,投资者可以期待新iPhone异常火爆的销售情况。

But the device setting those records is itself likely to be just an incremental upgrade over its predecessor, the iPhone 4S. Indeed, if the latest version of Apple's mobile operating system is any guide, the newest iPhone may not look that much different from smartphones Apple sold over three years ago. Granted, the screen is expected to be larger and the device thinner. But the actual user experience isn't expected to be very different.

但创造这项纪录的新款iPhone本身却可能只是iPhone 4S的“增量升级”版。实际上,如果从苹果最新版移动操作系统来判断的话,那么新款iPhone可能与苹果过去三年来售出的智能手机并无太大差别。当然,预计屏幕会变大,机身会变薄,但实际用户体验可能不会有太大不同。

In one sense, that is good since a reason the iPhone is so popular is that 'it just works,' notes analyst Neil Mawston of research firm Strategy Analytics. The hardware, software and Apple services like iTunes are tightly integrated and easy to use, making the device appealing to a huge swath of non-techie users. That is opposed to, say, devices running Google's Android operating system, where the ability to customize can complicate the user experience.

市场研究公司Strategy Analytics的分析师莫斯顿(Neil Mawston)指出,从某


In another sense, sticking to the iPhone's traditional design is a problem, giving rivals a chance to jump ahead with new features. The Windows Phone operating system that Nokia uses has 'live tiles' that display useful information or photos directly on the device's home screen, not just dummy icons you have to touch to launch apps. The camera technology in Nokia's latest device is also likely to be superior to Apple's. And Nokia is showing its engineering prowess with, for instance, a touch screen that should work for users wearing winter gloves. Such subtle improvements have typically been the hallmark of devices designed under Steve Jobs.

从另一个层面来看,iPhone在设计上坚持走传统路线也有问题,这会给竞争对手一个推出新功能并领先苹果的机会。诺基亚(Nokia)使用的Windows Phone操作系统有可直接在手机主屏上显示有用信息或图片的“活动瓷片”(live tiles),而不仅仅是必须通过碰触才能启动应用程序的一个个图标。诺基亚最新手机采用的相机技术可能也比苹果先进。而且诺基亚目前正在展示其设计实力,如用户带着防寒手套也能用的触摸屏等。这类细微之处的改进历来都是乔布斯(Steve Jobs)生前在任时苹果产品所具有的特色。

Apple has other powerful advantages, including a huge ecosystem of apps. Android also has plenty, but Windows Phone lags far behind. Users that have downloaded lots of apps, not to mention other media from the iTunes store, may find themselves locked into using an iPhone. But if rivals surpass the iPhone in other crucial respects, it becomes harder for Apple to justify the price premium it charges wireless carriers to sell its devices.

此外,苹果也有其它强大的优势,包括巨大的应用生态系统。安卓也有很多应用软件,但Windows Phone在这方面则远远落后。那些下载了很多应用软件(更不必说从iTunes商店下载其它媒体内容)的用户可能会发现自己已离不开iPhone 了。但如果竞争对手在其它关键领域超越iPhone,苹果向无线运营商证明其高价位属于合理范畴的难度就会增大。

Not long ago, Nokia and BlackBerry looked nearly as impregnable as Apple does today. Apple's dominant ecosystem should prevent it ever suffering a similar decline. Yet the fact that it finds itself in a hit-driven business is perhaps good reason its shares trade for just 12 times earnings for the fiscal year ending September 2013 despite growing faster than any other company in the S&P 500 in 2011, ex-acquisitions.

不久以前,诺基亚和黑莓(BlackBerry)也曾与如今的苹果一样,有着看似几乎固若金汤的地位。苹果所主导的应用生态系统应该会防止它重蹈黑莓的覆辙。不过,苹果从事的是一个需要大量人气的行业,这也许就很好地解释了为何该公司根据截至2013年9月财年预期收益计算的市盈率仅为12倍,尽管苹果的增长速度超过2011年标普500指数(S&P 500)任何一家成分股公司(不包括发生收购的公司)。

Once upon a time, Apple revolutionized cellphones by turning them into hand-held computers. Resorting to evolutionary design changes would give rivals an opening.


The next iPhone should again propel Apple's stock and its sales. That may be the time for Apple shareholders to take their money off the table.



The Japanese government made a formal decision to buy islands at the center of a dispute with China, a move to prevent the islands from ending up in Japanese nationalists' hands but one that provoked an angry response from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao.


Japan's chief government spokesman said it had agreed with the islands' private owners to purchase them, stressing it was in line with the government's policy of maintaining control of the islands in a 'peaceful and stable' manner.


'The government has been renting the islands since fiscal 2002 to keep

them under peaceful control. But since the current private owners intended to put them on the market, we've decided to buy them,' Chief Cabinet Secretary Osamu Fujimura told a regular news conference.

日本内阁官房长官藤村修(Osamu Fujimura)在例行记者会上说:自2002财年以来政府就租下了这些岛屿,以使之处于和平的控制中;但现在的私人岛主打算将岛屿出售,于是我们决定购买这些岛屿。

On Tuesday, the cabinet approved the funding for the purchase, Mr. Fujimura said, adding that the ¥2.05 billion ($26 million) in funding would come from the government's reserve fund.


He also said that Japan and China have been in contact on the issue.


'Both governments have been communicating closely through diplomatic channels to avoid misunderstandings and unforeseen incidents' pertaining to the situation, Mr. Fujimura said. 'We do not wish for this matter to adversely affect the bilateral relationship.'


In addition, Japan has sent its most senior diplomat in charge of relations with China to Beijing, a government official said. The diplomat, Shinsuke Sugiyama, director-general of the Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, is scheduled to return tomorrow.

除此以外,一位政府官员说,日本已派遣负责对华关系的最高级别外交官前往北京。这名外交官是外务省亚洲及大洋洲事务局局长杉山晋辅(Shinsuke Sugiyama),按计划他将于明天回国。

The move to buy the islands prompted anger from the highest levels of the Chinese leadership, with Mr. Wen saying late Monday that the islands-controlled by Japan, which calls them the Senkaku, but claimed by China and Taiwan; they're called Diaoyu in Chinese-are an inalienable part of China's territory. He said China would 'absolutely make no concession' on issues concerning its sovereignty and territorial integrity, according to state-run Xinhua news agency.


The Japanese central government decided to buy the islands after Tokyo's nationalist governor, Shintaro Ishihara, said the city was negotiating such a purchase. Mr. Ishihara had proposed building facilities on the islands, including a port, to fend off landings by Chinese activists opposing Japanese control.

在日本中央政府决定购买争议岛屿之前,东京都知事、民族主义者石原慎太郎(Shintaro Ishihara)曾说,东京都正在与岛主协商购岛事宜。石原慎太郎提议在岛上修建包括港口在内的设施,以防止反对日本控制这些岛屿的中国活动人士登岛。

Japanese officials have said the central government's purchase plans are aimed at preventing nationalists such as Mr. Ishishara from seizing control of the islands, a move which would be certain to further inflame nationalistic sentiment in China.A team from the Tokyo metropolitan government this month conducted a survey of the islands from surrounding waters.


The central government and the owner had agreed on the purchase Friday, Mr. Fujimura said, although he declined to comment on the price.


A government official involved in the negotiations said last week the government wouldn't pursue any development on the islands.


Mr. Fujimura also shrugged off views that the decision may worsen ties with China, reiterating that no territorial dispute exists over the

islands. 'This is a domestic matter which should not trigger any diplomatic issues,' he said.


Earlier Monday, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said the country would take 'necessary measures' to protect what it believes is its territory following the Japanese government's announcement. The spokesman, Hong Lei, didn't specify what measures the country would take, and reiterated Beijing's stance that any unilateral moves by Japan over the islands are 'illegal and invalid.'


It is unclear whether China will escalate its response beyond the standard rhetoric. The Chinese government is trying to maintain a diplomatic status quo ahead of a sensitive, once-a-decade leadership transition set to begin later this year.


But the spat prevented a formal meeting between the two nations' leaders at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Vladivostok, Russia, this weekend. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and Chinese President Hu Jintao only held a 15-minute discussion Sunday on the sidelines of the forum.

但是,中日岛屿之争导致双方领导人未能在上周末亚太国家峰会上举行正式会晤。在周日于俄罗斯符拉迪沃斯托克举行的亚太经济合作组织峰会期间,日本首相野田佳彦(Yoshihiko Noda)与中国国家主席胡锦涛仅在会议间隙进行了15分钟的会谈。

While the two sides agreed not to disclose the contents of the talks, Xinhua said Mr. Hu had told Mr. Noda he was against nationalization of the disputed islands, and that he believed the move would be invalid.


China appeared to take a small step Monday to ratchet up economic pressure on Japan. At a news conference, Dong Yang, secretary-general of the state-backed China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, linked slowing sales of Japanese cars to the diplomatic tussle.

为增加对日本的经济压力,周一中国似乎迈出了一小步。受政府支持的中国汽车工业协会(Association of Automobile Manufacturers)秘书长董扬在新闻发布会上表示,日系车在华销量放缓与中日外交冲突有关。

'I don't want to comment much, but I guess Japanese brands' sales slowed in August mostly due to the Diaoyu issue,' Mr. Dong said.


Sales of Nissan Motor Co. 7201.TO -1.74% vehicles in China slowed slightly in August, said Kimiyasu Nakamura, president of Dongfeng Nissan, on Saturday. The company sold 95,200 cars in China in August, compared with 98,100 in July.

东风日产(Dongfeng Nissan)总裁中村公泰(Kimiyasu Nakamura)上周六说,日产汽车(Nissan Motor Co.)8月份在华销量放缓。该公司8月份在华售出汽车95,200辆,低于7月份的98,100辆。

Despite frequent eruptions of anti-Japanese sentiment in China, Japan has tried to keep tensions under control with its biggest trading partner. This contrasts with Japan's tough stance toward South Korea, an economic rival, with which it also has a territorial dispute.


'It's not in the interest of either Japan or China to let this situation adversely affect the overall relationship between the two countries,' Japanese Foreign Minister Koichiro Gemba said in a recent interview.

日本外务大臣玄叶光一郎(Koichiro Gemba)近日接受采访时说,让这种局势对日中两国的整体关系造成负面影响,这不符合双方的利益。

In September 2010, China strongly protested after Japan filed charges against a Chinese fishing boat captain involved in a collision with Japanese coast guard vessels near the islands.


Tensions flared again last month when activists from Hong Kong landed on one of the islands. Japanese officials didn't press charges and instead deported the members.




Some Japanese auto makers bucked an otherwise positive August for auto sales in China, and an industry group executive cited the potential ripple effects from a territorial dispute over islands in the East China Sea.

在8月中国汽车销售整体看好的情况下,一些日本汽车厂商却遭遇销售下滑。一位行业组织管理人士将此归因于东中国海(East China Sea,中国称东海)领土争端产生的连带影响。

Sharp discounts ensured that auto sales in China grew at their fastest pace in five months in August, and a domestic industry group said it expects sales in the world's largest car market to remain brisk in the final months of this year.


But some Japanese car makers fared poorly. Mazda Motor Corp.'s sales in China fell 6% from a year earlier to 16,539 vehicles in August, while Toyota Motor Corp. and its Chinese partners sold about 75,300 cars last month, down 15% from a year earlier.

不过,一些日本汽车厂商却销售惨淡。8月马自达(Mazda Motor Corp.)在华销量降至16,539辆,同比下滑6%。丰田汽车(Toyota Motor Corp.)及其中国合资伙伴上个月汽车销量约为75,300辆,同比下滑15%。

At a press conference on Monday, Dong Yang, secretary general of the state-backed China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, linked slowing sales of Japanese cars to the countries' growing diplomatic tussle over islands in the East China Sea, called Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China.

在周一举行的新闻发布会上,政府支持的中国汽车工业协会(China Association

of Automobile Manufacturers)的秘书长董扬将日本汽车销售放缓归因于中日两国围绕东海争议岛屿日益加剧的外交争端。争议岛屿在日本被称为“尖阁列岛”(Senkaku),在中国被称为“钓鱼岛”(Diaoyu)。

'I don't want to comment much but I guess Japanese brands sales slowed in August mostly due to the Diaoyu issue,' Mr. Dong said.


In a move likely to heighten tensions between the Asian neighbors, the Japanese government on Monday said it had decided to nationalize the group of islands.


It's unclear how much direct impact the territorial dispute has had on the China sales of Japan's auto makers. Honda Motor Co. HMC -0.33% saw sales rose 15% in August from a year ago. Toyota and others couldn't be reached on Monday for comment.

领土争端对日本汽车厂商在华销量的直接影响究竟有多大,目前还不得而知。8月本田汽车(Honda Motor Co.)销量同比上升15%。记者周一无法联系到丰田和其他厂商置评。

Sales of Japan's Nissan Motor Co. witnessed a slowdown after the territorial dispute between Japan and China in the East China Sea started in mid August, but the situation has been improving lately, Kimiyasu Nakamura, the president of Dongfeng Nissan, Nissan's China joint venture, said on Saturday. Nissan said it sold 95,200 cars in China in August, which is up 0.6% from a year earlier but down from July's 98,100 sales.

日本日产汽车(Nissan Motor Co.)在华合资公司东风日产(Dongfeng Nissan)的总裁中村公泰(Kimiyasu Nakamura)上周六说,8月中旬中日在东海爆发领土争端后,日产汽车的销量放缓,但最近情况有所好转。日产说,8月该公司在华汽车销量为95,200辆,同比增长0.6%,但低于7月的98,100辆。

China's auto market continues to struggle with high inventories and cutthroat price competition after years of surging output, while a slowdown in the domestic economy and higher oil prices have also taken their toll. The discounts auto makers are offering poses a threat to their profit margins, as they slash prices to make sure they hit their annual sales targets.


The association said Monday that car makers sold 1.22 million passenger vehicles in August, up 11% from a year earlier and 9% from July, marking the biggest monthly rise since the 15% month-on-month increase in March.