韩国造船报告
Shipbuilding
Jan-May industry trends
Jan-May cumulative orders up 70.0% YoY; Zero effect from weak yen
According to Clarkson data, cumulative new shipbuilding orders from January to May totaled to 4,067 DWT, up 70% YoY. Orders continued to grow in May, jumping 61.5% YoY in the month. By vessel type, bulk carriers accounted for the majority of orders (48.5%), followed by tankers and containerships. Notably, product carriers made up a relatively a high percentage (6.9%) of orders, extending last year’s trend.
By country, Korean and Chinese shipbuilders dominated, representing 36.2% and 43% of total orders, respectively. Japanese shipbuilders, on the other hand, saw their share shrink YoY to 13.8%, despite strong expectations of the weak yen boosting orders. Korean shipbuilding orders were more diversified, ranging from product carriers to containerships and gas tankers, whereas Chinese and Japanese players had a high order exposure to bulk carriers. In terms of order value, Korean shipbuilders were ahead by a wide margin, thanks to a large number of high-end vessel orders.
Price increases to extend from small/mid-sized vessels to mid/large-sized
As of end-May, the Clarkson newbuilding price index remained flat MoM and YoY at 126. Although the headline index stayed unchanged, a closer look by vessel type and size shows several changes. First, small and mid-sized shipbuilding prices have been rising. Price increases have extended from small to mid-sized and large containerships, and to capesize vessels for bulk carriers. In contrast, tankers have seen a price fall in VLCCs. For mega-containerships, we believe prices have fallen or flattened despite robust order growth. Newbuilding prices, which rose in line with increasing global orders in March, seem to be picking up in a wider range of vessels thanks to order growth in April and May.
Maintain Overweight on the sector; Top picks are HMD and SHI
For small and medium-sized shipbuilders, we favor Hyundai Mipo Dockyard (HMD), which stands to benefit most from the recovery of the merchant vessel market and a widening performance gap among shipbuilders. We keep our target price for HMD unchanged at W148,000. In the yet-to-recover large shipbuilder segment, we recommend Samsung Heavy Industries (SHI) and Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI), which are well-poised to benefit from the growing offshore plant market. We maintain our target price of W46,200 for SHI and W260,000 for HHI. That said, we believe HHI will benefit less than SHI, given the firm’s higher exposure to the still-sluggish machinery and merchant-vessel sectors.
Figure 1. Share performances of shipbuilders and exchange rate
Source: Clarkson, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Overweight (Maintain)
Industry Report
June 12, 2013
Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd.
Shipbuilding/Machinery Ki-jong Sung
+822-768-3263
kijong.sung@https://www.wendangku.net/doc/694205973.html,
6080100
120140160
1802002202406/12
8/12
10/12
12/12
2/13
4/13
6/13
1920
21
22
232425JPY/W (L)
US$/JPY (L)
Korean shipbuilders (L)
Japanese shipbuilders (L)
Foreign ownership of Korean shipbuilding shares (R)
(-1Y=100)(%)
Table 1. Orders and orderbook by vessel type
(mn DWT, %)
Order
Orderbook
Type
Jan-May ‘12
Jan-May ’13
YoY (%)May ‘12
May ‘13
YoY (%)
Tanker 59.4108.783.0749.8 531.6 -29.1Bulker 133.7197.447.61,950.9 1,251.0 -35.9Container 2.767.92414.8445.4 373.7 -16.1PC 19.228.045.851.7 47.7 -7.7Other 24.2 4.8-80.2220.5 256.4 16.3Total 239.2
406.7
70.0
3,418.3 2,460.4 -28.0
Source: Clarkson, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Table 2. Orders and orderbook by country
(mn DWT, %)
Order
Orderbook
Country
Jan-May ‘12
Jan-May ’13
YoY (%)May ‘12
May ‘13
YoY (%)
Korea 70.2147.4110.0934.4 653.4 -30.1China 76.6175.1128.61,483.2 1,032.9 -30.4Japan 82.956.2-32.2688.5 532.9 -22.6Other 9.528.0194.7312.2 211.2 -32.4Total 239.2
406.7
70.0
3,418.3 2,430.4 -28.9
Source: Clarkson, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 2. Orders by vessel type (YTD as of May 2013) Figure 3. Orders by country (YTD as of May 2013)
Source: Clarkson, Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Clarkson, Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 4. Major countries’ shares of global newbuilding orders Figure 5. Major countries’ order breakdown (Jan.-May 2013)
Source: Clarkson, Bloomberg KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Clarkson, Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
PC
Bulker 48%
Other 1%
43%
Others
Figure 6. Newbuilding price trends by vessel type
Figure 7. Capesize bulker order and newbuilding price trends
Source: Clarkson, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Clarkson, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 8. Post panamax order and newbuilding price trends Figure 9. UL/VLCC order and newbuilding price trends
Source: Clarkson, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Clarkson, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 10. Global order and newbuilding price trends
Figure 11. Global sales volume and secondhand price trends
Source: Clarkson, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Clarkson, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
1. Orders funneling to a handful of shipbuilders
The most notable aspect of orders in May was a rise in small- and mid-sized ship prices despite falling heavy plate prices and the sluggish shipping market. Competition among small- and mid-sized shipbuilders has eased markedly due to the massive restructuring over the last several years. As such, orders funneled to a handful of shipbuilders with high competitiveness, drove up ship prices. Given that these small- and mid-sized shipbuilders are seeing their order backlogs and order inquires increase, ship prices will likely climb further. PC orders are funneling into Korean shipbuilders, while bulk carrier orders are concentrating at Chinese and Japanese shipbuilders. Meanwhile, the prices of large-sized ships, including LNG carriers and mega containerships, remained flat despite a marked increase in orders, as: 1) the competitive environment for large shipbuilders has not changed notably due to a lack of restructuring; and 2) large shipbuilders maintain a small order backlog.
2. Ship demolition to reach 628,100 DWT (
3.9% of freight capacity) in 2013
As of May, global cumulative ship demolition stood at 203,000 DWT YTD, which accounts for 1.3% of total freight capacity. If the current trend continues, annual ship demolition will likely reach 628,100 DWT (3.9% of the freight capacity) in 2013. Increasing ship demolition is mainly attributable to the slowdown in the shipping market. Since freight rates have fallen, the demolition of old ships are picking up speed. As global top-tier shipping lines are enhancing their competitiveness by increasing fuel-efficient eco-friendly ships in their fleet, second-tier shipping lines are also likely to accelerate their ship replacement, further lowering the number of years a ship is in operation.
Figure 12. Major freight indexes and heavy plate price trends
Figure 13. Small-to medium-sized shipbuilders’ order trends
Source: Clarkson, Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Clarkson, Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 14. Global ship demolition trends
Figure 15. Demolition trends by major vessel type
Source: Clarkson, Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Clarkson, Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
400
800
1,200
1,600
H M D
O s
h i m a N e w Y Z J
Z h
o n g h u a T s
u n e i s h i S u n g d o n g
M i t s u b i s h i S h a n g h a i S .Y .S P P s h i p b u i l d i n g
('000 CGT)0
102030
40
50607089
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
5/13
0.0
0.51.01.5
2.0
2.5
3.03.5
4.0(mn DWT)(%)
3. Competition among top three Korean shipbuilders to ease on FPS market growth
We expect the global offshore plant market to expand and experience less competition thanks to the growth of the floating production system (FPS) market. With intensifying competition for natural resources, demand for drilling facilities will likely remain solid in the long term. In particular, floating rigs and the FPS have a capacity utilization of 92% and 94%, respectively. As such, the floating rig and the FPS markets will likely continue to expand over the next several years. In the FPS market, HHI have the highest competitiveness. SHI is planning to enter the large-sized FPS market, aided by its technological prowess in the drillship market. The top three Korean shipbuilders are unlikely to hike their ship prices despite an increase in large-sized ship orders, as their merchant ship order backlog remains small.
4. Japanese shipbuilding stocks corrected; Comeback of foreigners is key
Shares of Japanese shipbuilders, which had advanced on yen weakness, have recently corrected. Most Japanese shipbuilding- and heavy-industry-related stocks, excluding MODEC with a high percentage of offshore businesses, have fallen, as the expected benefits of yen weakness did not play out. However, foreign funds that had moved to Japan have not yet returned to the Korean market
Source: Clarkson, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 18. Major global shipbuilders’ P/E-ROE (2013F) Figure 19. Major global shipbuilders’ P/B-ROE (2013F)
Source: Clarkson, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Clarkson, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
12.6
12.8
12.10
12.12
13.2
13.4
13.6
6/12
8/12
10/12
12/12
2/13
4/13
6/13
Important Disclosures & Disclaimers
Stock Ratings Industry Ratings Buy Relative performance of 20% or greater
Overweight Fundamentals are favorable or improving
Trading Buy Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral Fundamentals are steady without any material changes Hold Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening Sell
Relative performance of -10%
* Ratings and Target Price History (Share price (----), Target price (----), Not covered (■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell (◆)) * Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months.
* Although it is not part of the official ratings at Daewoo Securities, we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development.
* The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future earnings.
The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.
Analyst Certification
The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean
securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws and regulations thereof. Opinions expressed in this publication about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal views of the Analysts primarily responsible for this report. Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. No part of the compensation of the Analysts was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report but, like all employees of Daewoo Securities, the Analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. except as otherwise stated herein.
Disclaimers
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United States: This report is distributed in the U.S. by Daewoo Securities (America) Inc., a member of FINRA/SIPC, and is only intended for major institutional Disclosures
As of the publication date, Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. has acted as a liquidity provider for equity-linked warrants backed by shares of Hyundai Heavy and Samsung Heavy as an underlying asset, and other than this, Daewoo Securities has no other special interests in the covered companies.
As of the publication date, Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. has been acting as a financial advisor to Hyundai Mipo Dockyard for its treasury stock trust, and other than this, Daewoo Securities has no other special interests in the companies covered in this report.
As of the publication date, Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. issued equity-linked warrants with Hyundai Heavy and Samsung Heavy as an underlying asset, and other than this, Daewoo Securities has no other special interests in the covered companies.
Hyundai Heavy
6/11
12/11
6/12
12/12
6/13
(W)
Hyundai M ipo Dockyard
6/11
12/11
6/12
12/12
6/13
(W)
Samsung Heavy
6/11
12/11
6/12
12/12
6/13
(W)
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