Academic English-Growing grey

Growing grey

John I. Clarke and Andrew Craven

The populationof the world is ageing. The proportion of elderly people in both developed and developing countries is growing. This article considers the statistics and some of the impacts of this demographic phenomenon. It is relevant to anyone studying population change.

We live in an ageist society, in which people are discriminated against on the grounds of age. This is curious, because most countries in the world have ageing populations, with a growing proportion of old people who will have an increasing impact upon all aspects of polity, society and economy.

1 Who are the old?

There are no sharp thresholds separating the old and the very old (sometimes less harshly called elderly and very elderly) from the rest of the population. Internationally, the UN Population Division defines the old as those aged 60 and over (United Nations, 2005). In 2005 there were about 673 million old people according to this definition一10% of the world population In the developing world this was 8% of the population and in the developed world 20%. The rather low UN threshold of 60 makes sense in the developing world, as people have lower life expectancies there, but in the developed world as a whole those aged 60 and over already outnumber children aged 0-14.

The widely cited data sheets of the Population Reference Bureau (Haute, 2005) use the higher threshold of 65 and over as a definition of old age. According to this, about 7% of the world population were "old" in 2005: only 5% of the developing world, but 15% of the developed world. In the UK we have tended, rather idiosyncratically, to define old people as those of pensionable age-65 and over for men and 60 and over for women. This is despite the fact that women tend to outlive men. At the 2001 census 18.4% of the UK population, or 10.8 million people, fell into this category. Fortunately, the gender difference in the definition is being replaced by a general move to 65 and over.

2 Who are the very old?

Demographers often distinguish between the "old and the very old, because they differ considerably in their activities, health, medical and housing needs, independence, social integration/segregation and in their contributions to society. Even access to the Internet tends to vary by age. Again, there is no clear cut threshold for the rapidly growing very old population. Seventy five and over is commonly used in the UK and other developed countries, and 85 and over for the increasing numbers of very, very old. However, the UN Population Division provides data for an intermediate age group-the oldest-old -aged 80 and over. In 2005 this group accounted for only 1.3% of the world population, and more than half of them were in the developed world where less than a fifth of the world population was living (United Nations, 2005)

3 More old and very old people

Ageing of the population is mainly caused by- the worldwide phenomenon of fertility decline, which is bringing about widespread but variable reductions in the percentage of young people. It is augmented by increased life expectancy. The number of those aged 60 and over in the world is increasing by about 2% annually, faster than younger age groups. In 2000, there were approximately three times as many people aged 60 and over in the world as in 1950; by 2050 they

are expected to triple again to reach 22% of the world total, or almost 1.9 billion. Eight out of ten of them will be living in the developing world.

Naturally, the percentage of old people ( Figure 1)and their rate of increase varies among countries. In 2005, those aged 60 and over ranged from more than 25% in Japan, Italy and Germany to less than 5% in most tropical African countries and in the oil-rich countries in the Middle East that attract numerous young workers. By 2050, the range is expected to be even wider from more than 40% in Japan( which has the longest life expectancy in the world), Italy, the Republic of Korea and Slovenia to still less than 5% in a few African countries (Equatorial Guinea, Liberia and Swaziland). Broadly, ageing of population is fastest in countries with rapid fertility decline (e.g., China, the Republic of Korea, Tunisia, Iran and Algeria), and slowest in the least developed countries of tropical Africa (e.g., Niger, Uganda) that have experienced limited fertility decline. These contrasts between countries are much the same if the 65-year threshold is used. In this ageing process the UK is about average for a developed country. In 2005, 21% of the UK population were aged 60 and over, and this is expected to rise to 29% in 2050. By this time. some developed countries will have two elderly people for every child.

The geographical differences are even more striking among the oldest age groups, whose rates of growth are more rapid still. UN projections indicate that the world population of oldest-old aged 80 and over is increasing by 4.2% annually. It is expected to grow from 87 million (1.3% of the world total) in 2005 to 394 million (4.3% of the total) in 2050, 70% of this group living in the developed world. In India and China this group may number 100 million and 53 million respectively by 2050. However much higher percentages of oldest-old are likely to be found in some developed countries: more than 15% in Japan and Italy, and up to 9% in the UK (Figure 2) In contrast, many African populations will still have less than 1% of their populations aged 80 and over. The 2001 census in the UK gives more than 1.1 million people (1.9%) aged 85 and over. This is 5.5 times the number counted 50 years earlier at the 1951 census. In 2001 there were more than a third of a million aged 90 and over. The very old is the fastest growing age group.

4 More old women

Women generally live longer than men, although the difference varies from over 10 years in many countries vn eastern Europe (13 years in Russia) to 1 year or less in some countries in south-central Asia(Nepal, Bangladesh and India). So the majority of older people are women, but that majorty increases with age. In the world population of 2005, there were about 10% more women than men aged 60 and over (67 million) . However, there were twice as many women as men aged 80 and over and four times as many female centenarians. In male-dominated societies, elderly widows who outlive their usually older husbands face particularly severe social and economic problems. More than half of all women aged 75 and over in the UK live alone, compared with less than a third of men of that age, because more elderly men remarry.

5 Dependency burden

The surge in the numbers and proportion of old people is posing a growing age-related dependency burden on the active populations of most countries. This is sometimes measured by a potential support ratio (PSR), which is the ratio of the number aged 15-64 to those aged 65 or more. Since 1950, the world PSR has fallen from 12 to 9, and by 2050 it is expected to fall to 4, a level already attained by the UK and Spain. It is even lower than this in Portugal (3.9), Greece (3.7), Italy (3.5) and particularly in Japan (3.3). By 2020 one in four Japanese will be over 65. In

the developed world, we have had time to become accustomed to the growing problems of pensions, poverty, health, housing and isolation of elderly people in individualistic societies with loosening family ties. It is unfortunate that the valuable experience of elderly people is often overlooked as a resource. they are insufficiently integrated into society, and a growing percentage of the them are living alone. In the developing world, ageing of populations is happening much more rapidly, as is urbanisation and a decline in the cohesion of the extend family, traditionally a support for the elderly. The problems of adjustment to ageing are therefore more acute and immediate in less economically developed countries.

6 Age-selective migration

Migration plays an important part in the age differentiation of populations, particularly at a local level within countries. For many year the movement of people of working age has dominated migrtion, but retirement migration has a clear effect on the location of elderly people in developed countries. In Britain all 10 districts with the highest proportions (3.6% -4.6% at the 2001 census) of persons sged 85 and over and all 10 districts with the highest proportions (27.4-33.1%) of persons of retirement age have coastal locations in the south and southeast of England. These are traditional retirement areas (Figure 3). Seven of the districts appear in both lists: Christchurch (Dorset), East Devon, West Somerset, Tendring (Essex), Arun (West Sussex), and Rother and Eastbourne (East Sussex). The inevitable preponderance of old women in these districts means they have low gender ratios, sometimes fewer than 90 males per 100 females. No doubt the pattern would have been sharper had it not been for the recent preference for retiring abroad to sunnier climes.

Differential ageing of populations also leads to international migration. The more aged populations of the developed countries are inevitably attracting younger migrant workers from less developed countries. All countries of the European Union, for example, are faced with growing international migration and growing ethnic diversity of populations. These have become thorny political topics, especially with the emergence of terrorism and militant religious fundamentalism. The impact of international migration may be one of the major consequences of ageing populations during the 21st century.

References

Haub, C. (2005). 2005 world population data sheet. Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau. Retrieved October 26, 2011，from https://www.wendangku.net/doc/665620964.html,/pdf05/OSworlddatasheet_ eng.pdf United Nations (2005). World population prospects: The 2004 revision,highlights (ESAlPlWP.193). New York:

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. Retrieve

d October 26,2011，from : https://www.wendangku.net/doc/665620964.html,/esa/population/publications/WPP2004/2004Highli

ghts-inalrevised.pdf

John I. Clarke is an emeritus professor of geography at the University of Durham, and h as written and edited many books about Population geography.

Andrew Craven is research director at software consultancy SQS Solutions.

Source:Adapted from Clarke, J. L,&Craven, A. (2006). Growing grey. GeographyReview.2

(2), 10-13. Reproduced by permission of Philip Allan Updates.

Text Growing grey, Text 4a (Reading texts pp. 150-155)

Text 4a is an article from the Geography Review on issues related to an ageing population. Focus task

Your reading purpose for Tasks 1-3 is to carry out reading research on the basis of completing an essay entitled:

The population of the world is ageing. What impact will this phenomenon have on society? Imagine that in the process of your research you will read the text Growing grey in the Geography Revie,、一you grill then make notes that could be used to write a short summary for use in completing the essay.

As you work through Task引一3, think about how you would write this essay.

Task 1Considering the title and the introduction

1.1 Consider your own view of the impact of an ageing world population.

Discuss your view with another student.

1.2 Analyse the title.

a the title Growing grey make you feel that the text may he useful to you?

b Discuss your views with another student.

1.3 Read and evaluate the short opening summary to the article.

a Select cme ,entenre you think is the most relevant to your rending purpose.

B Explain、cur chalice to another student.

Task 2 Considering subheadings and displayed information

Text 4a contains quite a lot of displayed information. Apart from the title,there are six subheadings, one photograph and three figures (maps). This information can help you predict the content of the text.

2.1 Read the subheadings in the table. In the right column, write down what you expect to

learn from each section.

You will rcml the、、hole mxt in Task 3 to check whether your predictions are accurate or not.

The first one has been dome for you.

In order to produce an appropriate summary of the text，you need to have a clear understanding of the content. Looking carefully at heaadings, photos and figures can help provide

a way into the text and clarify the content. Once you fool you understand the content, you can move on to the next stage of the process: making notes.

Task 3 Making notes

When preparing to make notes, you should concentrate on the main points. You only need to add examples if you feel they will be useful for your task.

3.1 Read the introduction and the first two sections og the text.

Do not use a dictionary ar this stage,but read for genral understanding.

Your teacher will set a tithe limit.

3.2 Write your notes.

Write down everything you can remember in note form or as a mind map.

Key reading skills: Making notes after you read

You can often save time by making notes after you have finished reading. If you make notes as you read, it may slow down your reading and interrupt your concentration on the text.

3.3 Repeat the procedure in Ex 3.1 and 3.2 for:

1. Section 3

2. Sections 4 and 5

3. Section 6

Discuss your notes with other students.

3.4 Compare your notes with the model supplied by your teacher.

a. What do you find most interesting or effective about the notes provided by your teacher?

b. Do you think your own notes are effective?

3.5 Reflect on your note-taking. Discuss the following with other students.

1. What strategies did you use to carry out the task?

2. Were your strategies successful?

Key reading skills: Note-taleing strategies

Reading and making notes is an essential academic skill. Making notes enables you to reflect on your understanding of the text and helps you to organise your ideas. Be prepared to try out different strategies when taking notes so that you can find what suits you best.

Note: Now you have read Text 4a, check the accuracy of your predictions in Ex 2.1.

Task 4 Writing a summary

4.1 The final stage of the process is to organise your notes and then write your summary. You will be able to compare your notes and summary with examples supplied by the teacher.