应用随机生产模拟的发电系统可靠性评估方法

电力系统自动化991705

电力系统自动化

AUTOMATION OF ELECTRIC POWER

SYSTEMS

1999年　第17期　第23卷　No.17　vol.23　

1999

应用随机生产模拟的发电系统可靠性评估方法

王秀丽　陈皓勇　甘志　王锡凡

摘　要　鉴于发电系统可靠性计算是电力系统可靠性评估中最重要的环节，提出了进行发电系统可靠性评估应同时考虑电力约束及电量约束的概念，论述了应用随机生产模拟评估方法计算发电系统可靠性的必要性及其实现过程，对发电系统可靠性的指标选取进行了讨论，介绍了发电系统可靠性软件包REGEN的功能、特点及设计思想，最后给出的某省实际系统的算例，验证了此方法的必要性和有效性。

关键词　发电系统可靠性　随机生产模拟　电力不足概率　电量不足期望值

分类号　TM 732

RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF GENERATION SYSTEM BASED

ON PROBABILISTIC PRODUCTION SIMULATION

Wang Xiuli, Chen Haoyong, Gan Zhi, Wan Xifan

Xi'an Jiaotong University, 710049, Xi'an, China

Abstract　The reliability evaluation of generation systems is an important part of that of power systems. The reliability indices of generation systems are first discussed. Then this paper proposes a concept for reliability evaluation of generation systems based on the probabilistic production simulation method taking the load capacity constraint and the energy constraint into account. Based on the concept, a software package REGEN is developed. This paper details its functions, features and design steps. Its application on a real power system is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Keywords　generation systems reliability　probabilistic production simulation　loss of load probability (LOLP)　expected energy not supplied (EENS)

0　引言

电力系统可靠性的评估通常分为系统的充裕度和系统的安全度两个方面。充裕度指电力系统内是否有足够的电力设备以满足用户的需求和运行的约束。安全度与电力系统的扰动有关，涉及电力系统是否能抵御出现的扰动。充裕度的评估方法可按电力系统的不同功能部分分别进行［1～3］。发电系统可靠性计算是最重要的一个环节，在进行发电系统可靠性研究时，通常假定输电系统有足够的输电能力并且完全可靠，不会影响发电设备向用户的供电。以往发电系统可靠性研究的重点在于考虑发电机组随file:///E|/qk/dlxtzdh/dlxt99/dlxt9917/991705.htm（第 1／9 页）2010-3-22 17:23:08