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经济学人读译Time for a double dip

经济学人读译Time for a double dip
经济学人读译Time for a double dip

Time for a double dip?

二次探底的时候到了吗?

A lousy debt deal, rising fears of a recession, the danger of longer-term stagnation: America’s outlook is grim

债务协议一塌糊涂,衰退之忧与日俱增,长期经济停滞之虞:美国前景堪忧。

Aug 6th 2011 | from the print edition

THIS ought to have been a good week for the American economy. The country’s leaders at last ended a ludicrously irresponsible bout of fiscal brinkmanship, removing the threat of global financial Armageddon by agreeing to raise the federal debt ceiling. Y et far from heaving a sigh of relief, investors are nervous. Stockmarkets around the world have tumbled (see article). On August 2nd, the day the debt deal was signed, the S&P 500 index saw its biggest one-day fall in over a year, and yields on ten-year Treasury bonds dropped to 2.6%, their lowest level in nine months, as investors sought safety.

对美国经济而言,这本来应该是表现良好的一周。该国的领导人在最后一刻结束了既荒谬又不负责任的财政边缘政策,一致同意提高联邦债务的上限,消除了全球金融大灾难的威胁。然而,投资者根本没有松一口气,而是紧张不已。世界各地的股市纷纷下挫。8月2日,签订债务协议当天,标普500指数的单日跌幅是一年来最大,由于投资者寻求安全的投资,10年期国库券的收益率下降至2.6%,降到了9个月来的最低水平。

It is not all to do with America: the euro zone is a mess (see article) and manufacturing everywhere seems to be slowing. But America’s prospects have suddenly darkened. Statistical revisions and some grim new figures have revealed a weaker-than-assumed recovery that has all but ground to a halt. Once stalled, an economy can easily tip back into recession, particularly if it is hit by a new shock—as America’s is about to be, thanks to a hefty dose of fiscal tightening made worse by the debt deal. The odds of a double dip over the coming year are uncomfortably high, perhaps as high as 50%.

这并非只与美国有关:欧元区一片混乱,各地的制造业似乎都在放缓。但是美国的前景突然变暗淡了。统计数据的修订以及一些严峻的新数字已经表明比预期疲软的复苏几乎停滞不前了。经济一旦停滞不前就很容易重陷衰退,要是受到新的冲击更是如此——由于债务协议将使财政紧缩更加严厉,美国经济即将受到新的冲击。来年二次探底的可能性非常之高,可能高达50%。

Amer ica’s recovery from a balance-sheet recession was always bound to be sluggish and fragile. And its woes need not fell the world economy, thanks to the strength of emerging markets (see Economics focus). But the thoughtlessness of the debt deal—notably its failure to tackle any of the

real sources of America’s fiscal problems, such as entitlement spending—raises a bigger worry. Can the country’s politicians, so starkly polarised and so willing to gamble with the economy, be trusted not to turn what was always an inevitable period of hardship into longer-term stagnation?

美国从资产负债表衰退中复苏通常必定是缓慢而脆弱的。由于新兴市场的力量,美国的困境不一定会摧毁世界经济。但是协议的考虑不周——主要是没有解决美国财政真正的根源性问题,比如福利开支——引发了更大的担忧。人们能相信走极端又乐意拿经济博弈的美国政客不会将通常不可避免的困难期转变为较长期的停滞吗?

The fin rising to the surface

恶兆浮出水面

Begin w ith the state of the recovery. On July 29th America’s government statisticians published revisions to the past few years of GDP statistics. They showed that the 2008 recession was deeper than first thought, and the subsequent recovery flatter. Output has not yet regained its pre-recession peak. And the feeble recovery is petering out. Over the past year output has grown by a mere 1.6%, well below what most economists consider to be the economy’s underlying growth rate, and a pace that has in the past almost always been followed by recession. Over the past six months the United States has eked out annualised growth of merely 0.8%. Even observers who, like us, had expected America to bounce along near the bottom for a while had not expected growth to be this low.

先从复苏状况说起。7月29日,美国政府的统计人员公布了过去几年国内生产总值统计数据的修订版。它们表明,与起初设想的情况相比,2008年的衰退更加严重,随后的复苏也更加乏力。产出还没有恢复到衰退前的峰值。乏力的复苏正在消失殆尽。在过去一年,产出只增长了1.6%,远远低于大多数经济学家认为的潜在经济增长率,以往出现这样的速度,随之而来的通常是衰退。在过去6个月,按年率计算,美国只增长了0.8%。我们预计美国的复苏会在低谷附近徘徊一段时间,但是连像我们这样的观察人士也没有预测到增长会如此缓慢。

Temporary factors have played some role in this. Soaring oil prices crimped consumer spending. The Japanese earthquake disturbed supply chains. In some industries, notably car production, a rebound is plainly under way. But the overall economy is now so weak that it would take a lot to get growth up to a reasonable rate. And there are some signs that the temporary shocks may have left a more lasting dent on the psyche of firms and shoppers. That is why the newest figures are so disconcerting. Consumer spending fell in June; consumer confidence slumped in July, as did manufacturers’ orders. Of course, these are early, incomplete, snapshots, but the chances of a double dip over the coming year, which seemed relatively small only a month ago, have risen alarmingly.

临时性因素产生了一些影响。石油价格飙升抑制了消费者开支。日本地震扰乱了供应链。在一些产业,主要是汽车业,复苏正在有序进行。但是目前,经济总体而言呈现颓势,要付出巨大努力才能将增长率提升到合理的水平。有迹象表明,短暂的冲击可能给企业和顾客留下更加持久的精神创伤。正因为这样,最新的数字才令人如此不安。6月,消费者开支有所下

降;7月,制造商的订单大幅减少,消费者的信心也大跌。诚然,这些是不完整的早期征兆,就在1个月前,二次探底的可能性似乎相对较小,但是接下来一年二次探底的可能性已经增加到了令人焦虑不安的程度。

If that happens, then America’s politicians will bear much of the blame (see article). Their prescription for a weak economy is a large slug of austerity. Thanks to the expiry of a payroll-tax credit and extended jobless benefits in December, the United States is on course for a fiscal contraction of some 2% of GDP next year, the biggest of any large economy—and enough to drag a weak economy into recession.

如果发生二次探底,美国的政客将要负主要责任。他们采取大量的紧缩措施来应对疲软的经济。由于工资税减免政策和延长的失业补贴于今年12月份终止,明年美国的财政紧缩将达到国内生产总值的2%左右,这是任何大经济体中紧缩幅度最大的,足以让疲软的经济陷入衰退。

The debt deal, which implies only modest new spending cuts in the short term, is not directly responsible for this. But Congress could, and should, have stopped this potentially ruinous trajectory. There was a deal to be had: keep up spending in the short term, with a stress on much-needed infrastructure investment, as well as extending the temporary tax cuts, in exchange for a big medium-term reduction in the deficit, centred on entitlements and tax reform. Congress did precisely the opposite, failing to support the economy now and failing to find enough cuts over the next decade to stabilise America’s debt. Any hard decisions have been given to a commission—a cop-out that condemns workers and firms to more crippling uncertainty about how the country’s fiscal mess will be tackled. Would you build a factory today if you knew that taxes had to rise eventually, but had no idea which ones?

债务协议带来的只是短期幅度不大的新开支削减,对此没有直接责任。但是国会可以也应该阻止这种可能具有破坏性的趋势。本该达成如下协议的:短期继续增加开支,着重急需的基础设施投资,同时延长临时减税政策,以便中期大幅削减赤字,以福利和税收改革为中心。国会的做法正好相反,目前没有支持经济,也没有找到今后十年为了稳定美国债务所需的足够债务削减。任何艰难的决定都推给了委员会——这种逃避行为迫使工人和企业越发不确定该国的财政混乱局面将如何收拾。如果你知道税收最终必然会上升,但是不知道哪项税收会增加,现在你会开厂吗?

Worse, the poisonous politics of the past few weeks have created new sorts of uncertainty. Now that the tea-partiers have used default successfully as a political weapon, it will surely be used again. The refusal to compromise, rapidly becoming a point of honour for both parties, is wreaking damage elsewhere, partially shutting down the Federal A viation Administration (see article) and postponing trade bills. At best, the politicians will have slowed a sputtering expansion; at worst they will have killed off the recovery and inflicted lasting harm on the world’s most impressive prosperity machine.

更加糟糕的是,过去几周勾心斗角的政治添加了新的不确定性。既然茶党人士成功地将违约当做了一种政治武器,他们必定会再次利用这种武器。拒不妥协对两党来说迅速成了某种荣

誉,但是拒不妥协却在其他地方产生了破坏性的影响,一定程度上关闭了联邦航空管理局,推迟了贸易法案。最好的情况是,美国政客将放缓乏力的增长;最糟糕的情况是,他们将扼杀复苏,对世界上最引人注目的繁荣国家造成长期的伤害。

In the land of the blind the one-eyed Fed is king

在盲人的国度,独眼的美联储就是国王

Does it have to be this way? Not necessarily. Barack Obama or one of his Republican challengers may yet discover the courage to tell the truth about the American economy in next year’s presidential election. But given the politicians’ current uselessness, the only institution with the power to avert danger is the Federal Reserve. With interest rates so low, that means more quantitative easing. Printing more money is justifiable in the circumstances, but still a tool offering diminishing returns. Fiscal help would have been much better.

情况必然会这样吗?那不一定。贝拉克?奥巴马或共和党的某位总统候选人可能还没有勇气在明年的总统选举中说出美国经济的真实情况。但是鉴于政客们目前无所作为,有扭转乾坤能力的机构就只有美联储了。利率如此之低,这意味着会采取更多的量化宽松政策。在这种情况下,多印钱情有可原,同时还能带来不断减少的回报。但是要是采取的是财政援助,效果会好得多。

If America does manage to avoid recession and slowly begins to pull out of this mire, it will be testimony to its underlying strengths. It still has huge advantages over other rich countries: a younger, less-taxed population, a more innovative economy and, for now at least, the dollar as the global reserve currency. If only it had the political leaders to match, its chance of avoiding recession would be far better than one in two.

如果美国着实成功地避免了衰退并开始缓慢摆脱衰退,这将证明美国的潜在力量。与其他富国相比,美国仍然拥有巨大的优势:较年轻、税负较轻的人口、更加具有创新性的经济还有至少就目前而言,美元还是全球的存储货币。要是美国有称职的政治领导人,它避免衰退的可能性将大大高于50%。

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经济学人翻译

CONVIVIAL, and not averse to a drink, Nancy Wake could often be found cheering up a cocktail bar. In the late 1940s, and again towards the end of her life, it might have been the American Bar of the Stafford Hotel, just across the road from The Economist’s offices in London. In 1940, when she was living as a newlywed in Vichy France, it could have been another American Bar, this one in the H?tel du Louvre et de la Paix in Marseilles. It was a chance encounter here with an English officer, interned by the French authorities but that day on parole, which led to her membership of the resistance, and then to her role as an agent of the British Special Operations Executive in occupied France. Of the 39 SOE women infiltrated into France, 11 of whom would die in concentration camps, she was perhaps the most redoubtable. 南希?维克性格开朗,能喝善饮,鸡尾酒吧经常可以看到她惬意的身影。上世纪40年代末和生命最后的时光里她常光顾的可能是斯塔福德旅馆里的美国酒吧,这家酒吧就和伦敦《经济学人》办公楼隔路相望。而1940年时,新婚燕尔的维克居住在维希法国,那时候她可能是巴黎卢浮旅馆和马赛和平旅馆内另一家美国酒吧的常客。在这家酒吧,机缘巧合,她和一位被法国当局拘留恰巧在当天假释的英国军官相遇。正是这段偶遇让她加入了反法西斯抵抗组织,后来成为法国占领区内英国特种作战执行队的一名间谍。所有39名渗透到法国境内的间谍中,11名险些死在集中营里。维克恐怕是39名间谍中最厉害的角色了。 From her earliest days, Miss Wake combined opposing qualities. She was disciplined, but at the same time a free spirit. In Sydney, to which her large family had moved after leaving her birthplace in New Zealand, she twice ran away from home. As soon as she could, she made her way to London, then to Paris to work as a freelance journalist. There it was her cheerful independence as much as her good looks that caught the eye of the rich French industrialist, Henri Fiocca, who would take her to Marseilles as his wife. 打从很小起,维克性格中就充满了对立。她一方面严于律己,另一方面却叛逆不羁。一大家人从维克出生地新西兰搬至悉尼后,她曾两度离家出走。条件一允许她就去了伦敦,然后到巴黎当起了自由记者。在巴黎,凭着快乐的天性、独立的精神和美丽的容貌她吸引了腰缠万贯的法国企业家亨利?菲奥卡,随后,两人在马赛市结了婚。 She enjoyed her new life of luxury while it lasted, but she was no flibbertigibbet. Soon after meeting the interned British officer, she was helping to get similar Allied airmen, refugees and escaped prisoners-of-war out of occupied France and into Britain. She took a flat, ostensibly for a lover, in fact for the resistance, sheltered men on the run and became a crucial part of the southern escape line to Spain, travelling all over southern France from Nice to N?mes to Perpignan, with clothing, money and false documents. 虽然尽情享受着豪华奢侈的新生活,但她绝不是那种只贪图享受的轻浮女人。和那位英国军官认识后不久,她就开始为盟军空军、避难人员和从法国被占区逃往英国的战俘提供协助。她租下一幢公寓,以养情人作掩护,供抵抗组织活动所需,为逃难人员提供庇护;她带着衣物、钱和假造的公文,从尼斯到尼姆再到佩里皮昂在法国南部来回奔走,成为法国南部向西班牙逃亡路线的一个关键人物。

2018考研英语:阅读经济学人文章(一)

2018考研英语:阅读经济学人文章(一) German politics 德国政治 Gone boy on the right 消失的极右领袖 How an anti-foreigner, anti-establishment group ischanging German politics 一个反移民、反伊斯兰化组织如何改变德国政治 Bachmann: only joking, honest 巴赫曼:真的只是玩笑罢了 THE march on January 19th in Dresden by Pegida, or “Patriotic Europeans against theIslamisation of the Occident”, would have been its 13th. But it was cancelled because the policehad “concrete”information of plans to assassinate its organiser, Lutz Bachmann. On January21st Mr Bachmann was exposed in German tabloids for posing as Hitler on his Facebook page.He called it a joke, but later resigned his position. Pegida plans to resume its marches nextweek. 1月19日,在德累斯顿爆发了一场由Pegida(或者称作“爱国欧洲人反对西方的伊斯兰化”)发起的游行。本来这次游行应该在13号举行,但是由于警方获知了刺杀该运动领袖卢茨巴赫曼行动的“详细”信息而被取消。1月21日,巴赫曼因为在“脸书”(Facebook)上传其模仿希特勒的照片而被德国小报争相报道。他声称这只是一个玩笑,但是随后他宣布辞职。Pegida计划下周恢复游行。 Among its followers, despite Mr Bachmann's antics, neo-Nazis are a small minority. The typicalmarcher is a middle-aged, middle-class Saxon man who, says Hans V orl?nder at the TechnicalUniversity of Dresden, is alienated from politics and the liberal media, and yearns for ahomogenous fatherland. The marches may have “passed the peak”, adds Dieter Rucht at theBerlin Social Science Centre. Yet there will be political fallout. Nine-tenths of Pegida supportersback the Alternative for Germany (AfD), founded only in 2013 and represented in three easternstate parliaments. 在该运动众多的追随者中,除了巴赫曼这种滑稽行为的人,新纳粹仍是少数。据来自德尔德累斯顿技术大学的汉斯?福尔兰德尔讲,其中有一位的游行示威者是较为典型,他是一个来自于萨克森州的中年中产阶级男性,他对政治和自由媒体漠不关心,却呼唤一个同文同种的父国。柏林社会科学研究中心的Dieter Rucht说到,这支游行队伍可能已经“越过底线”。也许会带来某些政治后果。Pegida运动中有十分之九的支持者拥护德国新选项党(AfD),该党于2013年刚刚成立,享有东部三个州的议会席位。

考研英语经济学人文章阅读训练一

Tencent Video battles iQiyi in China’s streaming wars腾讯视频与爱奇艺之中国流媒体大战 But the two big Chinese streaming platform may onc day settle into a cosy duopoly 但两大平台在未来某天或将实现双头垄断 L aunched in2010,iQiyi has grown used to the foreign press calling it“the Netflix of China”.Not the worst nickname,given the videostreaming pioneer’s success.But Gong Yu,iQiyi’s founder and boss,insists that his firm is more accurately described as“Netflix plus”.A bold claim for a loss-making business worth one-fifteenth as much as America’s(cash-generating)entertainment powerhouse with a market value of$214bn.Still,Mr Gong has a point. 创立于2010年的爱奇艺常常被外国媒体称为“中国版网飞”。鉴于这家流媒体先驱的成功,这一称号也算名副其实。但爱奇艺创始人兼老板龚宇坚称,准确来说,爱奇艺是“加强版网飞”。对于这家仍在亏损的公司来说,这种说法有些张狂,作为美国娱乐业巨头的网飞现已实现盈利,市值高达2140亿美元,而爱奇艺市值仅为其十五分之一。不过,龚宇所言仍有些许道理。 Like Netflix,iQiyi offers customers a deep catalogue of licensed and original content.Unlike Netflix,which relies almost entirely on subscription fees,iQiyi has multiple revenue streams.“Membership fees”,which start from19.8yuan ($2.87)a month,accounted for just over half of iQiyi’s7.4bn yuan in revenues in the second quarter. 爱奇艺和网飞一样,也为客户提供海量版权及原创影视作品。但不同于几乎完全依赖会员费的网飞,爱奇艺拥有多项收入来源。在爱奇艺第二季度74亿元的营收中,每月19.8元(约合2.87美元)起的“会员费”占比刚刚过半。 The rest came mainly from an online store(which sells“entertainment-related merchandise”),a nascent mobile-gaming arm,an e-book business and advertisements;iQiyi operates a“freemium”model which allows stingier users to stream some content free of charge provided they agree to watch ads.

2013年9月新经济学人的几篇文章及其翻译

Women managers in Asia. 女性高管在亚洲。 Untapped talent. 尚待开发的人才。 Sexism is rife in Asia. That creates an opportunity for non-chauvinist firms. 性别歧视在亚洲"大行其道"。这为非大男子主义至上的企业创造了机遇。 IN THE West, women typically make up 10-20% of upper management and company boards. They are relatively lucky. A report from McKinsey, a consultancy, shows that Asian women lag far behind. 在西方,女性通常占据10-20%的公司高层和董事会职位。相比之下,她们是幸运的。来自麦肯锡咨询机构(McKinsey)的报告显示在此方面,亚洲女性大大落后了。 There are exceptions. In Australia women's share of board and executive-committee jobs is roughly on a par with that in America and parts of Europe. Singapore too has a large number of women in senior management (see chart). But elsewhere the picture is mostly dire, and not necessarily because the countries concerned are poor. In Japan and South Korea, both rich, women are about as likely to sit on boards as men are to serve tea. 例外也是有的。在澳大利亚,女性在董事会和执行领导层所占份额与美国和欧洲部分水平一致。新加坡也有大量女性工作在高级经理职位上。但在其他地方,女高管的境地就多半是岌岌可危的了,也不一定,都因为相关国家很穷。在日本和韩国这两个富裕国家,女子就很可能只是给坐在董事会里的男人们倒茶端水,而不是一起议事。 One reason why so few women in Asia get plum jobs is that in most countries far fewer of them are in the workforce than in the West, where their labour-force participation rate is usually around 60-70%. In India only about one woman in three has a formal job, though millions sweat on farms and in family businesses. Education is unequal, too. In 2009-10 only 10-15% of students entering the elite Indian Institutes of Management were female. But even in Asian countries where plenty of women leap from college onto the corporate ladder, they do not climb as high as men. 很少有亚细亚女性会得到称心如意的工作,一个原因是多数亚洲国家里,在职场中仅有极少数的女子,而在西方女性参与劳动(工作)率一般大致在60-70%。在印度,三个女子中大约只有一个有正式工作,虽然有数百万的女性在农场和家庭事务上挥洒汗水。教育也是不平等的。09到10年度,进入印度精英管理学院的学生中仅有10-15%是女性。但即使是在那些有众多女性能从大学走上职业之路的国家,她们也没攀登到男性所能达到的高度。The most common reasons given are much the same as in Europe: the double burden of work and domestic responsibilities; the requirement in many senior jobs to be always available and free to travel; women's reluctance to blow their own trumpet; and the scarcity of female role models. In Asia, an additional hurdle is the lack of public services to support families, such as child care. 与在欧洲一样,最为普遍也是肯定的原因是:职场与家庭责任的双重重担;高管职位随时随地的出差要求(受家庭牵连,女性做不到这点);女性对自卖自夸的不情愿;以及女性榜样的稀缺。而在亚洲,另一个障碍是缺乏诸如孩童看护(Child Care)一类的,援助家庭的公共服务。 So is it just a question of waiting until Asia catches up with the West? The McKinsey report's authors, Claudia Süssmuth-Dyckerhoff, Jin Wang and Josephine Chen, think it is not as simple as that. Having studied 744 large companies and quizzed 1,500 executives in ten Asian countries, they conclude that, unlike their Western counterparts, Asian senior managers are not very interested in the subject. Some 70% of them did not see "gender diversity" as a strategic priority.

2017考研备考英语阅读题源经济学人文章:Black Friday

2017考研备考英语阅读题源经济学人文 章:Black Friday Black Friday 黑色星期五 The long weekend 漫长的周末 A new, earlier discount frenzy grips Christmasshoppers 新一轮提前促销打折狂潮吸引了众多圣诞购物者 THE rhythms of Christmas used to be so simple. Buypresents in December, eat and drink too much, return unwanted gifts, then hunt bargains inthe January sales. Such habits may now be altered by the arrival on British shores of BlackFriday, an American retail phenomenon. 圣诞的节奏一直都很单一。在12月买礼物,尽情吃喝,再退还那些不中意的礼物,然后在一月大减价之际狂购便宜货到手软。而如今这样的习惯,很可能随着“黑色星期五”—美版“双十一”—登陆不列颠海岸而悄然改变。 Black Friday is the day after Thanksgiving. This year it falls on November 28th. As Thanksgivingday revolves around the eating, so Black Friday revolves around the shopping. It has becomethe biggest day of the year for American retailers as they discount thousands of products,kick-starting the Christmas shopping season. According to one story the name thus refers toshops doing such booming trade that they go from the red into the black. It might equally benamed because of the casualty rate. Shoppers get hurt in the stampede for bargains. Somehave even died. “黑色星期五”就是每年感恩节之后的第一天。今年就是11月28日。像感恩节的主题是美食一样,“黑色星期五”的主题便是购物。因在“黑色星期五”商家们会给成千上万的商品大打折扣开启圣诞购物季,由此这一天成了美国零售商们每年最盛大的一天,有一种说法是,这个名字正说明了那些在这天生意异常兴隆的商家大额进账,转亏为盈(红色记录赤字,黑色记录盈利)。还有一种说法是因为在这天的伤亡率。顾客们会在争抢折扣商品的拥堵人群中受伤。有些人甚至会为此丧命。 Since they do not celebrate Thanksgiving, Brits had never taken to Black Friday, until last year.Then, some British retailers joined American-owned companies like Amazon to introduce bigsavings. This year many more have embraced it. Visa Europe predicts that shoppers will spend6,000 per second on the day. John Lewis, a big London department store, is opening for itslongest day ever, from 8am to 10pm. 因为从来不过感恩节,所以去年之前英国人对黑色星期五一直无感。而其后,部分英国零售商加盟了类似亚马逊这种美国公司来引进各种省钱方式。在今年,已有更多的零售商投入到这些公司的怀抱。据维信欧洲(VisaEurope,信用卡集团)预测,在黑色星期五这一天,购物者们将每秒消费6000英镑。英国一家大型零售商店约翰·路易斯,在这天也会迎来其

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