基于EVA模型的中国中车投资价值分析
Abstract
Abstract
Development of China's securities market has become increasingly standardized, and the number of main board listed company close to 3500. More and more small and medium-sized investors into the stock market, investors need to set up the correct investment idea, avoid blindly following the investment. Only by establishing the correct value investment concept, can the securities market in China maintain a sound development.
Under the development opportunity of "One Belt And One Road" and China's 13th five-year plan, CRRC has shouldered great national responsibilities and society, and has developed rapidly. As a central enterprise, whether CRRC is worthy of investment has also become a hot issue for investors.
According to the value investment philosophy, when the intrinsic value of an enterprise is greater than the market price, it can increase its stock holdings. Instead, sell the company's stock.
Firstly, through theoretical analysis of traditional enterprise value valuation model and EVA model, The traditional model of measuring enterprise value relies more on the existing accounting standards and neglects the cost of equity capital. The economic added value (EVA) model considers the total capital cost of the enterprise. Through the adjustment of some accounting subjects in the calculation process, the enterprise value can be truly reflected and favored by value investors. Based on the characteristics of CRRC and the advantages of EVA model, the application of EVA model can effectively evaluate its intrinsic value.
Secondly, based on the macro-economic environment of CRRC, this paper analyzes the development trend and status of CRRC by using financial ratio analysis method. Finally, EVA model was used for empirical analysis. Calculate the historical EVA value of CRRC, And predict the company's EVA value in the next five years. Calculate the intrinsic value of China CRRC at the end of 2017. By comparing with the market value, the investment value of CRRC is finally obtained.
In addition to the macro-economic environment of the industry, the innovation point of this paper also combines financial ratio analysis and economic value-added model to predict the value of CRRC enterprises. This comprehensive analysis method is seldom used in China. Hopefully, the results of this study will be helpful for the investors of CRRC, and the methodology of this article will be used as a reference to other firms.
Abstract
Key words: Investment value analysis, Economic added value, Financial ratio analysis，Macro economic environment analysis
目录
目录
摘要 ............................................................................................................................... I ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................... I I 第1章绪论 . (1)
1.1课题来源及研究的背景和意义 (1)
1.1.1 课题的来源 (1)
1.1.2 课题研究背景和意义 (1)
1.2国内外在该方向的研究现状 (1)
1.2.1 国外研究现状 (1)
1.2.2 国内研究现状 (3)
1.2.3 国内外相关文献综述 (6)
1.3主要研究内容 (6)
第2章投资价值和EVA理论 (9)
2.1投资价值理论 (9)
2.1.1投资价值的含义和特征 (9)
2.1.2投资价值体系的发展 (9)
2.1.3中国证券市场上的主要投资价值的分析方法 (11)
2.2EVA理论 (13)
2.2.1EVA理论的概述 (13)
2.2.2EVA指标的构建 (13)
2.3中国中车价值评估模型的选择 (16)
2.4本章小结 (18)
第3章中国中车业务特征与财务分析 (19)
3.1中国中车业务发展特征 (19)
3.1.1中国中车基本情况 (19)
3.1.2公司主要业务范围 (20)
3.1.3 资本聚集形成行业发展的龙头 (21)
3.2宏观背景分析及行业分析 (22)
目录
3.2.1宏观背景分析 (22)
3.2.2行业分析 (23)
3.3中国中车财务报表分析 (26)
3.3.1偿债能力比率分析 (27)
3.3.2 营运能力比率分析 (29)
3.3.3 盈利能力比率分析 (31)
3.3.4 相对指标分析 (32)
3.4结论分析 (34)
3.5本章小结 (35)
第4章中国中车投资价值EVA实证研究 (36)
4.1中国中车EVA估值模型 (36)
4.1.1 计算中国中车历史EVA (36)
4.1.2 预测未来的中国中车 (39)
4.2计算中国中车的价值并分析结果 (44)
4.2.1 计算中国中车的价值 (44)
4.2.2 与中国中车市值的比较 (45)
4.3结果分析 (46)
4.3.1股价和企业价值偏离的原因分析 (46)
4.3.2中国中车投资价值分析 (46)
4.4本章小结 (46)
结论 (48)
参考文献 (50)
附表 (54)
附表一中国中车2015～2017年资产负债表 (54)
附表二中国中车2015～2017年利润表 (57)
附表三中国中车2015～2017年现金流量表 (59)
哈尔滨工业大学学位论文原创性声明和使用权限 (61)
致谢 (62)