IEA世界能源趋势-非OECD国家的能源平衡
Excerpt from:
2 - EXCERPT FROM ENERGY BALANCES OF NON-OECD COUNTRIES (2015 edition)
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The following analysis is an excerpt from the publication Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries (2015 edition). Please note that we strongly advise users to read definitions, detailed methodology and country specific notes which can be found either in our publication or online at https://www.wendangku.net/doc/a52547861.html,/statistics/topics/energybalances/.
Please address your inquiries to wed@https://www.wendangku.net/doc/a52547861.html, .
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WORLD ENERGY TRENDS: AN OVERVIEW
Global trends
Mainly due to the rebound from the economic crisis, global energy demand increased by 2.5% in 2013, with OECD 1 countries seeing an increase of 0.9%, due to continued slow economic growth,
OECD countries an increase of +3.6%2.
Preliminary figures indicate a situation in 2014 with global energy demand continu-ing to grow, although at a slower pace (less than 0.5%) influenced by only a small increase in Non-OECD countries (+0.12%) and a larger decrease in OECD countries (-1.2%). The Non-OECD trends were mainly influenced by increased energy demand in most regions that were balanced by decreased coal demand in China and Non-OECD Europe and Eura-sian while the OECD country decrease was influenced mainly by a milder winter in Europe and a decrease in oil demand for power generation in Japan.
Production
Fossil fuels accounted for 81.6% of global energy pro-duction in 2013. Between 2012 and 2013, production of coal increased by 4.6%, oil by increased by only 2.7% (Figure 1).
Among energy production) saw an increase of 0.7%, with production from other countries compensating for
1. OECD includes Estonia and Slovenia starting in 1990. Prior to 1990, data for Estonia are included in Former Soviet Union and data for Slovenia in Former Yugoslavia in this publication.
2 As a result of a delay in publishing 201
3 energy data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, data in this publication for China are estimated. As such, care should be used when interpreting energy trends between 2012 and 2013.
continued low production in Japan, while hydro (2.4% of total production) increased by 3.3% between 2012 and 2013, due mainly to increase precipitation. With a 2.8% increase, biofuels, mainly due to the large part of solid biofuels, (fuelwood, agro-residues), kept their 10% share of global energy production. Other renew-able sources (e.g. solar, wind), despite representing only 1.2% of total production, registered the most pronounced growth rates. In 2013, wind generation increased by almost 22%, solar thermal generation by 28%, and solar photovoltaic by 41%.
Figure 1: Global annual change in
energy production by fuel
* In this graph peat and oil shale are aggregated with coal.
** Includes geothermal, solar thermal, solar photovoltaic and wind.
At a regional level, Asia 3 overtook the OECD as the largest energy producing region, accounting for 30% of global production in 2013, while the OECD was at 29.2%. Moreover, the annual increase in production was much higher in Asia than in OECD; with trends showing an increase in Asia (+5.6%) compared to only 2.8% for OECD (Figure 2).
3. In this chapter, Asia includes China region unless otherwise specified.
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Figure 2: Annual change in energy production by region
Many countries experienced a major increase in their own domestic production in 2013. This is the case for China, which was a major consumer of energy in Asia. Coal and natural gas production in China are esti-mated to have increased by 7.9% and 12.8% respective-ly, nuclear by 14.6%, solar and wind together by
mainly to larger precipitation.
In the OECD region, influenced by the United States and Canada with 4.2% growth each covering almost 60% of OECD total production. Several smaller countries in OECD experienced decreases in their production, in particular Denmark and Greece, each with 11% decrease in energy production.
Figure 3: Largest producers by fuel in 2013
* In this graph peat and oil shale are aggregated with coal.
Figure 3 illustrates that energy production is not even-ly distributed across countries. For each fuel, just four to five countries generally account for more than half of global production. For coal, this is even more pronounced: China and the United States together
produced 60% of the world total in 2013. Saudi Arabia and the Russian Federation are prominent in global production of oil, the United States and the Russian Federation in the production of natural gas, and the United States, France and Russia played a key role in the production of nuclear in 2013.
Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES)
Figure 4 shows the fuel shares of total primary energy supply (TPES) in 1971 and 2013. During this time world TPES more than doubled. Oil, still the domi-nant fuel in 2013, reduced its share from 44% to 31%, while natural gas increased from 16% to 21% and nuclear from 1% to 5%. The share of coal has in-creased constantly in recent years, influenced primari-ly by increased consumption in China, reaching its highest level since 1971, 29% in 2013.
Figure 4: Total primary energy supply by fuel
1971
2013
5 523 Mtoe 13 555 Mtoe
* In this graph peat and oil shale are aggregated with coal.
The OECD’s share of global TPES has fallen from 60% in 1971 to 39% in 2013, reflecting the steady growth of energy demand in China and India. TPES grew in OECD by 0.9% in 2013, due mainly to increased coal consumption. Within the OECD, the United States represents more than 41% of the regional total in 2013, just a few percentage points less than in 1971.
Figure 5: Total primary energy supply by region
1971
2013
5 523 Mtoe 13 555 Mtoe
* Including international marine and aviation bunkers.
-4%
-2%0%2%4%6%OECD Africa
Non-OECD Americas Non-OECD Europe
and Middle East
Asia World
0%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Coal*Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
1%Biofuels 4%
Non-and 16%
Americas 5%and Eurasia 9%
5%
Biofuels Other
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Outside of the OECD, the most dramatic increase over the years occurred in Middle East, where in 2013 the region consumed more than fifteen times as much energy as in 1971. However, the most prominent emerging region in world energy consumption is defi-nitely Asia, which more than doubled its share of global TPES during the same period and represented 35% of total TPES in 2013.
As shown in Figure 6, Asia increased its TPES by 5.9% between 2012 and 2013, due in part to increased coal demand in India and Indonesia, while Middle East expe-rienced a 1.8% growth, influenced by natural gas, and Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia experienced a decline of 1.9%, which was influenced mainly by decreased coal demand.
Figure 6: Annual change in TPES by region
* World also includes international marine and aviation bunkers.
The role of non-OECD countries in the current world energy picture is becoming more and more prominent when ranking countries by Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES), as shown in Table 1. In 2013, China continued to outpace the United States in terms of TPES, with China accounting for 22% of global TPES while the United States accounted for only 16%. India and the Russian Federation ranked third and fourth, respectively. Japan, the second largest OECD consuming country, is in fifth position.
In 2013, the top-five countries of Table 1 produced close to half of global GDP 4, consumed 53% of total world energy and accounted for 46% of the total popu-lation. However, the relative shares of GDP, population and TPES of these five countries significantly varied from one to another, as illustrated in Figure 7.
4. In this chapter, GDP refers to GDP using purchasing power parities.
Table 1: TPES - top-ten countries in 2013 and 1971
Country TPES (Mtoe)
Share in world TPES
2013 1971 People’s Rep. of China 3 022 22% 7% United States 2 188 16% 29% India
775 6% 3%
Russian Federation 731 6% N/A Japan 455 3% 5% Germany 318 2% 6% Brazil 294 2% 1% Korea 264 2% 0.3% France 253 2% 3% Canada
253 2% 3% Rest of the world 5 002 37% 44% World
13 555
100%
100%
It is interesting to note, from Table 1, that the top 10 countries accounted for 63% of global energy demand in 2013, while in 1971 the top 10 accounted for more than 56%. In addition, the major change in demand among these countries has occurred between the United States and China.
Figure 7: Top-five energy consumers:
2013 relative shares*
* Relative shares within the top-five, which differ from shares in the world total.
The United States consumed 16% of world energy, with a population of less than 5% of the global total. Conversely, China and India consumed 22% and 6% of global energy demand respectively, together ac-counting for more energy consumption than the United States (28% of global TPES) but accounted for almost 38% of the global population. In the Unit-ed States, the large share of energy consumption is associated with a commensurate share of global eco-nomic output (17%). India, the Russian Federation and Japan also consumed significant amounts of energy in 2013. However, energy intensities differed signifi-cantly. With a GDP almost two times larger than that of the Russian Federation, Japan consumed three times less energy per unit of GDP.
-3%
-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%OECD Africa
Non-OECD Americas Non-OECD Europe
and Eurasia
Middle East
Asia World1
0%
20%40%60%
80%100%
TPES
Population
GDP PPP
6 - EXCERPT FROM ENERGY BALANCES OF NON-OECD COUNTRIES (2015 edition)
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Total Final Consumption (TFC)
Figure 8: Total final consumption by sector
1971
2013
4 249 Mtoe 9 173 Mtoe
To conclude this global overview, Figure 8 presents the shares of different sectors in total final consump-tion 5 (TFC). Industry is still the largest consuming sector (with a significant fraction derived from non-energy use), followed by the transport sector and the residential sector.
It is notable to observe at a global level that although regional shares of energy consumption have changed over the years, energy consumption by sector has remained relatively constant.
The following sections briefly describe 1971-2013 energy trends in six different regions of the world:
OECD, Africa, Non-OECD Americas, Asia, Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, and the Middle East.
5. In this chapter, each sector of final consumption includes its respec-tive non-energy use quantity.
8%
Agriculture/Non-specified 8%Agriculture/
Non-
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OECD
The OECD energy trends are largely driven by the importance of the United States, which accounts for 41% of regional TPES. Japan and Germany follow, with 9% and 6% of regional TPES. After a short peri-od of decrease in the mid-70s and early 80s, the OECD energy supply has progressed regularly, with an average annual growth rate of 1.1% since 1971. This trend continued in 2013, With TPES increasing by 0.9%, primarily due to increased nuclear energy production and coal consumption. This increase was still not as high as the 1.9% increase in GDP. Since the oil shocks of the 1970's, the OECD has diversified its energy supply. Consequently, the fuel shares in TPES have evolved, as shown in Figure 9. Although oil remains the main component of TPES, its share decreased from 51% in 1971 to 36% in 2013. The decrease was compensated by a pronounced in-crease in nuclear (from 1% to 10%) and by an in-creased penetration of natural gas (from 19% to 26%).
Figure 9: Total primary energy supply* by fuel
1971
2013
3 372 Mtoe 5 299 Mtoe
* Excluding electricity trade.
** In this graph peat and oil shale are aggregated with coal.
Despite being the second largest energy producing region, the OECD 1 is also the largest importer. In terms of self-sufficiency, the OECD is last among all regions, with a production/TPES ratio of 75%, far behind the closest region, Asia, at 87%.
The trends in electricity generation are even more pronounced than those of TPES, as presented in
1. OECD includes Estonia and Slovenia starting in 1990. Prior to 1990, data for Estonia are included in Former Soviet Union and data for Slovenia are included in Former Yugoslavia in this publication.
Figure 10. Electricity production has almost tripled since 1971, increasing on average by 2.5% per year, more than twice as fast as TPES, at a rate comparable to that of GDP. Oil has been almost completely dis-placed by the dramatic increase of nuclear and natural gas, among non-hydro energy forms. Hydro has pro-gressed very slowly, losing 10% in the share over the time period while coal has maintained the dominant role as electricity source, with a share in 2013 (33%) comparable to that of 1971.
Figure 10: Electricity generation by fuel
1971
2013
3 837 TWh
10 796 TWh
* In this graph peat and oil shale are aggregated with coal.
The role of coal in total final consumption (TFC) within OECD countries is much less important than that in electricity generation. In final consumption, oil is the key fuel, as shown in Figure 11. Oil consump-tion (in the form of secondary products like motor gasoline) had decreased after the oil shocks of the 70s, but since the mid-80s it has grown again. This has also been the trend between 2012 and 2013, with oil consumption increasing by 0.5% during this period. Oil still accounts for about half of the total final con-
sumption within the OECD.
Figure 11: Final consumption by fuel
* In this graph peat and oil shale are aggregated with coal.
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Figure 12: Total final consumption by sector and fuel
* In this graph peat and oil shale are aggregated with coal.
As illustrated in Figure 12, the driver for oil consump-tion (47% in 2013) is the transport sector, where total consumption grew by more than 90% between 1971 and 2013. Meanwhile in all sectors, consumption of electricity has increased considerably: it almost tripled between 1971 and 2013.
2004006008001000
12001400
M t o e
Industry Transport Residential Other
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Africa
In 2013, Africa produced 8.3% of the world’s energy. African production is dominated by oil (38%), fol-lowed by traditional biomass (32%), natural gas (15%) and coal (14%). The production and consump-tion of biofuels (mainly fuelwood) is significantly higher across Africa (48% of total TPES) than the world average (10% of total TPES).
Production of commercial types of energy are unevenly distributed across sub-regions, as shown in Figure 13. Crude oil and natural gas tend to be concentrated in a few countries of North, West and Southern Africa. In 2013, Nigeria, Angola, Libya, Egypt and Algeria produced together 75% of the crude oil of the region, while Algeria produced alone more than 41% of the regional output of natural gas. Coal is produced al-most exclusively in South Africa, the sixth largest coal exporter in the world, and a significant coal con-sumer itself.
Figure 13: Energy production by sub-region
* In this graph peat is aggregated with coal.
North Africa includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia; East Africa includes Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, South Sudan, Sudan and United Republic of Tanzania;
Southern Africa includes Angola, Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe;
Central Africa includes Cameroon, Congo and Democratic Republic of Congo;
West Africa includes Benin, C?te d'Ivoire, Gabon, Ghana, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal and Togo.
In 2013, Africa’s crude oil production decreased com-pared to 2012 (-6.3%). Among the region’s oil produc-ers, output declined in Libya (-30.8%), Congo (-9.9%) and Nigeria (-6.4%) while it increased in South Sudan (+219%), Sudan (+39.9%) and Mozambique (+40%). Africa represented 10% of world crude oil output and it exported 80% of this production in 2013. Natural gas production decreased by 3.8%, with almost half of the output exported in 2013, both by pipeline and LNG.
As shown in Figure 14, TPES in Africa is dominated by solid biofuels (mainly fuelwood), with a share in 2013 (48%) much higher than the world average (10%). The presence of large forests, agro-industry, agriculture, a large rural population, and a low GDP per capita have resulted in a large use of solid biofuels for cooking. Because of the extensive use of wood and charcoal, energy intensity 1 is higher than the world average.
Figure 14: Total primary energy supply* by fuel
1971
2013
191 Mtoe 746 Mtoe
* Excluding electricity trade.
** In this graph peat is aggregated with coal.
However, the share of traditional biomass in TPES decreased significantly between 1971 and 2013, due to increased electrification, and particularly the recent development of power generation from natural gas. Natural gas increased its share in TPES from 1% in 1971 to 13% in 2013. Coal continued to represent an important share of African TPES (14% in 2013), due to the continued high reliance of South African supply on it (68% in 2013). Figure 15: Electricity generation by fuel
* In this graph peat is aggregated with coal.
Figure 15 shows that electricity generation in part drove the substantial changes observed for TPES between 1971 and 2013. The growth of natural gas
1. Measured by the ratio TPES/GDP.
50100150200250300350400Africa
Africa
Africa Africa
Africa
Africa
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power generation, especially in natural gas producing countries, has been remarkable. In 1971 natural gas only produced 1% of electricity in Africa while it now produces 36% of all electricity on the continent, even with a 7-fold increase in the amount of power generated during the period. In 2013, natural gas provided 96% of the electricity in Tunisia, 93% in Algeria and 77% in Egypt. On a regional level, the share was 36%, larger than in the OECD (24%), and only behind Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia (40%) and Middle East (64%). The large share of coal in electricity production is due to the weight of South Africa, which almost exclusively uses coal as an electricity source (94% in 2013). Elec-tricity production reflects the disparity in fossil fuel resources between sub-regions of Africa. In 2013, North African countries plus South Africa, represented only 20% of the population but generated 76% of the electricity in Africa. Electricity remains a grave scarci-ty for most Sub-Saharan African countries, with electri-fication rates averaging 30%2.
2. Electrification rate extracted from WEO electricity database, 2013 https://www.wendangku.net/doc/a52547861.html,/media/weowebsite/energydevelop ment/WEO2013Electricitydatabase.xlsx.
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Non-OECD Americas
In 2013, energy production in Non-OECD Americas was 0.6% lower than in 2012, with decreases in ener-gy production in Brazil (-2.2% for oil, -8.7% for nu-clear and -5.9% for hydro) and Argentina (-5.3% for oil, -5.2% for gas and -2.4% for nuclear). These drops in production were not completely compensated for by increases in Bolivia (+14.4% for oil, +13.9% for gas and +7.8% for hydro) or Colombia (+5.7% for oil, +5.4% for gas and +7.7% for biofuels).
Figure 16 shows that oil largely remained the domi-nant fuel in the supply (44% in 2013), followed by comparable shares of natural gas and biofuels (~20%). While the share of natural gas in TPES in-creased from 8% to 22% between 1971 and 2013, the share of biofuels and waste decreased from 33% to 19% while hydro became an important part of energy supply in the region (9% in 2013). Urbanisation and increases in the purchasing power of citizens explain the move away from traditional biofuels.
Figure 16: Total primary energy supply* by fuel
1971
2013
190 Mtoe 619 Mtoe
* Excluding electricity trade.
** In this graph peat is aggregated with coal.
As shown in Figure 17, hydro generation developed at an average rate of 6% per year between 1971 and 2013, growing from 3% to 9% of TPES. In 2013, hydro represented 58% of total Non-OECD Americas electricity generation, due mainly to Brazil’s very large share of hydro (69%), and far above the world average of 16%.
Figure 17 also shows some decreases in nuclear and hydro power production between 2012 and 2013, due mainly to the impact of continued security testing of nuclear plants and ongoing drought in Brazil. Simi-larly, increases in the demand for fossil fuels were
affected by the reduced availability of nuclear and hydro power production.
Figure 17: Annual change in TPES by fuel
* In this graph peat is aggregated with coal.
** Includes geothermal, solar thermal, solar photovoltaic and wind.
Figure 18 illustrates the sectoral consumption in the region. In 2013, industry accounted for 40% of total final consumption (TFC), followed by transport (34%) and residential (16%). Oil consumption, accounting for al-most half of TFC, is driven, as in all countries, by road transport. Still, within transport, Non-OECD Americas has the largest share of liquid biofuels in the world (10%) mostly due to Brazil (15%), the world’s largest exporter and consumer of fuel ethanol from sugarcane.
Figure 18: Total final consumption
by sector and fuel
* In this graph peat is aggregated with coal.
The difference in the growth of Industry and Transport consumption (~3 times between 1971 and 2013) in comparison to the growth in Residential consumption (an increase of only 2/3 since 1971) can be seen in Figure 18. Although the share of electricity in TFC increased from 7% in 1971 to 18% in 2013, due to a series of structural and regulatory changes to favour access to electricity and to develop intercon-nections, its impact on consumption in the Residential
sector seems to be limited.
-10%
-6%-2%2%6%10%
20406080100120140160180200
Mtoe
Industry Transport Residential Other
Coal**
3%
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Asia
In 2013, Asian total primary energy supply continued its growth of 5.9% over 2012, in line with the strong economic growth for the region, with GDP in the region increasing by 6.6%, dominated by China (+7.7%) and India (+6.9%). Asia is the largest energy producing region in the world, with almost 30% of global production in 2013. Figure 19 shows the recent steep growth in production, led by China, the largest coal producer in the world, accounting for 77% of Asian production. Moreover, despite this growth, the region as a whole is a net energy importer, as its internal demand is growing even faster than its production. Self-sufficiency has slowly declined over the last twenty years for both China (87% in 2013) and India (68% in 2013). Indonesia, which is still self-sufficient because of its large coal production, became a net oil importer in 2004.
Figure 19: Energy production by country
Figure 20: Total primary energy supply* by fuel
1971
706 Mtoe
4 689 Mtoe
* Excluding electricity trade.
** In this graph peat is aggregated with coal.
As shown in Figure 20, coal is the main energy source in the region, accounting in 2013 for more than half of the TPES, well above the world average of 29%. Asia con-sumed about half of the world’s coal in 2013. Figure 21 shows that in 2013 Asia saw an increase in nuclear energy production (almost 10%) and renewables (almost 20%), however the renewables growth is from a very small
base of only 1% of TPES. In 2013, China also increased its oil demand by 3%, maintaining its position as the world’s second largest crude oil importer behind the United States and just outpacing Japan.
Increase in per capita GDP, urbanization and electrifica-tion programmes have lowered the share of biofuels (predominantly solid biofuels) in the region from 47% in 1971 to 13% in 2013. Due to the expansion of infra-structure, natural gas has become significant in the fuel mix (8%). In 2013, China increased natural gas produc-tion by 13%, and also strongly increased its LNG im-ports (+25%) that had started in 2006.
Figure 21: Annual growth in TPES by fuel
* In this graph peat is aggregated with coal.
** Includes geothermal, solar thermal, solar photovoltaic and wind.
As shown in Figure 22, Asia has the largest share of coal in the electricity mix among all regions (68% in 2013). Among the largest electricity producing countries, coal provided 76% of electricity in China, 73% in India, 93% in Mongolia and 51% in Indonesia.
Figure 22: Share of coal in electricity generation
in 2013
In 2013, total electricity generation in Asia increased by 7.6% in large part due to the 9% increase of China. Even if electricity production grew in the region at an average an-nual rate of 8.3% since 1971, its consumption per capita is still below the world average in 2013.
500
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20%
40%
60%
80%
Non-OECD Americas
Middle East
OECD Africa
Non-OECD Europe
and Eurasia
Asia
World
8%
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Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia
With a production/TPES ratio of 161%, it is one of the most energy self-sufficient world regions, with the Russian Federation accounting for 63% of regional TPES in 2013, Ukraine (10%) and Kazakhstan (7%). Moreover, non-OECD Europe and Eurasia represents 8.5% of the world energy supply.
Figure 23 shows the trend over time for regional TPES. In the years after 1990, economic output as well as energy consumption strongly declined (~30%), due to the very sharp decrease in industrial consumption. A slow recovery has occurred since 1999, which was briefly interrupted by the economic downturn in 2009, followed by a short recovery and now a slow downturn in 2013.
Figure 23: Trend in total primary energy supply*
by fuel
* Excluding electricity trade.
** In this graph peat is aggregated with coal.
Natural gas and oil are the largest contributors to en-ergy production in the region (40% and 37% respec-tively in 2013), followed by coal and nuclear. Natural gas production increased in the largest producing country, the Russian Federation, with the 2013 output up by 4% from 2012. In addition, crude oil and hydro production increased by 1% and 9% respectively. In 2013, nuclear power provided 16% of the electrici-ty of the region, with highest development in Ukraine (43%), Bulgaria (33%) and Armenia (31%). However, it has been the development of natural gas in the re-gion which is the most significant variation in the regional fuel mix over the last four decades, as shown in Figure 24. In 2013, oil, coal and natural gas still accounted together for more than 80% of the supply.
Figure 24: Total primary energy supply*
* Excluding electricity trade.
** In this graph peat is aggregated with coal.
As illustrated by Figure 25, industrial energy con-sumption decreased by almost 4% between 1971 and 2013 – and decreased by 38% between 1990 and 2013. The decrease between 1990 and 2013 was par-ticularly pronounced in Azerbaijan (-80%), Armenia (-80%) and Georgia (-79%). In recent years, industrial energy consumption has gradually recovered in the region (+13% between 2000 and 2013). Consumption in the transport sector has almost doubled over the last forty years, with growth of 31% between 2000 and 2013, mainly due to increases in the vehicle population.
Figure 25: Total final consumption
by sector and fuel
* In this graph peat is aggregated with coal.
In 2013, natural gas had the largest share in the re-gional TFC (30%), followed by oil (27%), heat (20%) and electricity (15%). Natural gas was also the domi-nant fuel in the regional electricity mix (40%) with coal at 24%. In 2013, coal and oil-generated electrici-ty decreased (-1.3% and -55% respectively) while solar, geothermal
and wind electricity generation
400
800
1200
1600
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350
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increased by more than 60%, now accounting for 0.6% of electricity output for the region.
In 2013 the region saw a 1.9% increase in energy production compared to the previous year. The trend in energy production is evident in Figure 26, which shows the regional production of oil was just above 2012 levels (+0.9%). Production of natural gas in-creased by 4.2%, with the largest increases in Russia (+4%) and Ukraine (+4%).
Figure 26: Energy production by fuel
* In this graph peat is aggregated with coal.
Since 2000 the economies of Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia have been expanding at an average rate of almost 5% per year. In 2013 they experienced a 2.4% increase in GDP. In line with GDP growth, energy production has increased by 1.6% per year on average since 1971.
The energy profile of the Non-OECD and Eurasia region is largely influenced by major energy produc-ers and exporters such as the Russian Federation. In 2013, the Russian Federation produced 9.8% of global energy, 19% of global natural gas, and 12% of global oil.
A key world energy exporter, the Russian Federation is increasing its production faster than its domestic de-mand. In 2013, net exports in the region were equivalent to 44% of total production, compared to 32% in 1990. Within the region, the Russian Federation produced 77% of total oil, 75% of total natural gas and 61% of total coal in 2013, keeping its position as largest ex-porter of natural gas, second exporter of crude oil and third exporter of coal in the world.
Figure 27: The Russian Federation: total final consumption by fuel
1990
2013
625 Mtoe 434 Mtoe
* In this graph peat is aggregated with coal.
Figure 27 shows the penetration of natural gas in final consumption for the Russian Federation (29% in 2013), and the stable share of oil in time, driven by consumption in the transport sector.
Even though the energy intensity of the region has decreased since 2000 (by about two thirds), Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia remains one of the most energy intensive among all regions, with a TPES/GDP ratio almost two times as large as the world average.
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Middle East
With a production more than 2.5 times as large as its supply, Middle East is the region with the highest energy self-sufficiency ratio in the world. In 2013, the region produced 13% of global energy, 31% of global oil and 16% of global natural gas. In 2013, production increased in the region for natural gas (+5.8%) but decreased for crude oil (-1.1%), influenced by the production trends of specific large producers. Figure 28 shows that Saudi Arabia is the largest oil producer in the region (41%), followed by UAE, Kuwait and Iran (12%) and Iraq (11%). Iran is also the second largest producer of natural gas, with 29% of the regional production, following Qatar at 31%. Regional trends for 2013 were dominated by increases in Iraqi and UAE oil output (+1% and +5% respec-tively), but decreases in Kuwaiti and Saudi oil output (-2% each). Iran and Syria also saw decreases in oil output (-4% and -68% respectively). Increases in Qatari and Iraqi natural gas output (+13% and +21% respectively) also dominated the regional trends. Qatar has developed natural gas production at an average annual growth rate of 16% in the last thirteen years.
Figure 28: Energy production in 2013
The Middle East has also dramatically developed its own energy demand. Over the period 1971-2013, TPES grew on average by 7% per year, faster than in any other region in the world. As shown in Figure 29, the supply is almost exclusively based on oil and natu-ral gas. Natural gas has partly displaced oil, doubling its share between 1971 and 2013.
Key factors for the fast development of natural gas in Middle East are power generation and the petrochemical sector. While the share of oil in electricity production shrank from 54% in 1971 to 33% in 2013, the share of natural gas increased from 27% to 64% in the same period. In 2013, natural gas provided almost all the electricity generated in Bahrain, in the United Arab Emirates, Oman and in Qatar.
Figure 29: Total primary energy supply* by fuel
1971
2013
43 Mtoe
689 Mtoe
* Excluding electricity trade.
Figure 30 illustrates the growth of consumption in the transport sector, which relies almost exclusively on oil. Oil is responsible for 48% of total consumption in the region as a whole, 90% in Yemen, and 78% in Iraq. Electricity more than doubled its share in final energy consumption (from 5.6% in 1971 to 14.9% in 2013).
Figure 30: Total final consumption
by sector and fuel
Improving energy efficiency remains a key challenge for the region. The fast growth of supply compared to economic output has pushed energy intensity upwards since the early 80's. With a 2013 ratio almost twice as large as the world average, Middle East is second only to Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia in terms of TPES/GDP.
200
400
600
Others
Oman Qatar Iraq Kuwait UAE Islamic Rep. of Iran
Saudi Arabia Mtoe
20406080100120140160180200220Mtoe
Industry Transport Residential
Other
Other Other
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