时间序列实验答案4

7244.3

7154.47199.35 1.219013 1.227467

7167.8257161.113 1.217772 1.169093

7371.857269.8380.7047750.73994

72777324.4250.826140.877786

7231.77254.35 1.322269 1.227467

7425.3257328.513 1.138185 1.169093

7252.37338.8130.673460.73994

7347.7757300.0380.9349950.877786

7364.657356.213 1.2098751.227467

7222.757293.7 1.1959771.169093

7001.9257112.3380.7043960.73994

6787.556894.7380.9076340.877786

7049.96918.725 1.1587111.227467

6940.356995.125 1.124441.169093

6875.856908.10.877130.73994

6941.56908.6750.8423760.877786

总季度平均数总季节平均 1.003572

5、 一家大

型百货公司

季节指数s季节分离后的序列y/s回归预测值 T ST最终预测值

0.7373077436.7936297732.29135701.072502SUMMARY OUTPUT

0.8746626856.705797714.90966747.938261

1.223098457175.3014057697.52799414.834415回归统计1.16493227485.9292297680.14628946.849604Multiple R

0.737306796949.0747557662.76455649.808295R Square

0.874662246918.0990677645.38286687.127616Adjusted R

0.9784789803.1841297628.00117463.83126标准误差

1.1649327160.2462637610.61948865.854079观测值

0.7373076703.3135457593.23775598.547309

0.8746627803.5858427575.8566626.313361方差分析

0.9784789095.8611237558.47437395.800816

1.1649327488.0765577541.09268784.860085回归分析

0.7373076794.8629277523.71095547.284713残差

0.8746627154.6494537506.32926565.500911总计

0.9784788193.13267488.94757327.770372

1.1649326751.982097471.56588703.866091Coef

0.7373078218.1506487454.18415496.022116Intercept

0.8746626653.6559277436.80246504.688461X Variable

0.9784787929.4577917419.42077259.739928

1.1649326977.402973740

2.0398622.872096

0.7373077384.65735444.75952

0.8746627367.27566443.876011

0.9784787349.89397191.709483

1.164932733

2.51228541.878102

Y OUTPUT

回归统计

0.11509

0.013246

-0.04157

911.8744

20

df SS MS F Significance F

1200913.1022200913.10.2416230.628977

1814967269.41831515

1915168182.51

Coefficients标准误差t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%下限 95.0%上限 95.0% 7749.673423.594354518.29503 4.46E-136859.7348639.6126859.7348639.612 -17.381735.3609735-0.491550.628977-91.672456.90891-91.672456.90891

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