Out look of global economic

Chapter 1 Outlook of Global Economies

ITIS Program, TIER

Chia-Yen Yang; Hui-Ping Lee; Min-Yu Wu; Jen-Chieh Tseng Major Developmental Trends and Issues of Global Economies New Global Economic and Trade Policy Framework Agreement of

Post-Financial Crisis

The worst recession of the post World War II period forced the G20 (Group of Twenty) nations to hurriedly schedule three leaders’ summits in the space of just over one year. Summits were held in Washington in June 2008, London in April 2009 and Pittsburgh in September 2009, respectively. Summits that previously were attended by finance and economic ministers and Central Bank presidents were suddenly being attended by the nations’ leaders.

In contrast to the first two summits, the Pittsburgh summit was held at a time when the global recession was gradually coming to an end. Because the economic recovery progress and policies varied from country to country, big differences in the focus of the individual nations started to become apparent. However, the challenges of reforming the global economic and trade structure, and trading environment reform after the financial crisis are just starting to be tackled, and progress in dealing with these important issues in the future will require close international coordination and integration. Therefore, the biggest achievement of the Pittsburgh summit was that it will now be possible for emerging economies to have significant participation in global economic and trade subject discussion and coordination through the further reorganizing of the G20 communication platform in the future. This means that the era when global economic and trade policies were dictated by a minority of advanced nations in the past has formally ended.

The Subjects of the Pittsburgh Summit

The recession initiated by the financial crisis is gradually coming to an end, nevertheless, loose monetary policies in many countries has raised concerns over the stability of energy and raw material markets, as well as stock and asset price bubbles in some

countries. Thus each country is considering ending their related economic stimulus polices. In addition, other topics mostly included the further discussion of issues raised at previous summits.

Timing the termination of economic stimulus packages

Most countries agree that the countries that have exhibited the quickest recovery pace such as China, India and other emerging markets still haven’t reached a position to allow the termination of stimulus packages. Needless to say America, European countries, Japan and other advanced countries still have a long way to go. In other words, major economies take ‘maintaining a stable recovery’ as the first priority. Although it’s too early to end economic stimulus packages, it will be a key issue requiring the coordination of all countries in the future.

Initiating a continuous and balanced global economic growth framework

The subject was emphasized by America first, and the purpose is to request the partially export-oriented European Union countries to progress their economic structure adjustment to allow greater consumer market function. This would enable the global economy to achieve long-term and balanced development. However, major European Union countries along with China and other emerging economies do not completely agree with America’s point of view. Therefore, the formal announcement after summit was only an agreement in principle that each country should pay more attention to stabilizing asset and credit markets and prices.

Implementing financial system reform

This subject is basically the extension of an ongoing debate re-emphasizing capital management of the financial system, the regulation of derivative markets and transnational financial activities, accounting standards, and financial monitoring promotion. However, while this issue involves the medium and long-term “backstage work”, the European Union emphasized the short-term issue of dealing with the “financial fat cat”. So in addition to financial reform, there is also an awareness of increased media visibility, and some consideration of domestic political pressures to be resolved.

Coordination of the global economic and trade policy reform organization

According to the summit announcement, this subject includes three points: 1. to

promote G20 as the primary international economic cooperation platform; 2. to reiterate establishing the Financial Stability Board, FSB to continuously monitor the progress of the previously-mentioned financial system reform; 3. to reiterate progressing International Monetary Fund, IMF and World Bank reform. To sum up, the main thrust of this initiative is to confirm the importance of the emerging economies’ participation in this international economic and trade policy communication platform.

Reiterate the need to help disadvantaged countries to escape the economic development vicious circle of food, energy and financial assistance.

Initiate the phasing out of oil subsidy policies of major countries in the medium term.

This is a policy strongly supported by the US as part of their suggested “framework for sustainable and balanced growth”.

Reiterate the need to ensure free trade (including the elimination of trade protectionism and contributing to the smooth completion of the next round of World Trade Organization negotiations in Doha in 2010), and a common framework for negotiations to deal with the response to climate change.

Initiate preparations for a further two G20 leaders’ summits in 2010 in Canada and South Korea, after which the 2011 annual meeting will be the next communication between the international trade and economic policy platform and the first to be held in Paris.

Major Summit Achievements

Main purpose of a “framework for sustainable and balanced growth” as suggested by the US.

The main emphasis of the “framework for sustainable and balanced growth” from the US perspective is that China, as the head of the emerging economies, should play a more important role in the consumption market to promote balanced global growth. The US also recognizes the importance played by the emerging economies on global economic development, and the US wants major countries to communicate and coordinate closely while formulating and implementing economic and trade policies. In other words, the US position at the G20 Pittsburgh summit is not to focus on short-term goals, but to stress the importance of establishing a global economic and trade policy communication platform.

The evolution of US-China relations

The rise of China is a fact that no one can ignore. The US consistently claims that China should play a more important role in consumption to reverse the unbalanced global rate of growth. That is to say, the US will request more direct and open discussion on the subject of RMB appreciation, service sector market opening, unfair trade policy elimination (ie. dumping, intellectual property violation and environmental neglectαin the mid and long term.

Nevertheless, the US has to make more effort in solving its domestic economic structural problems, which is why it hopes for China’s support or at least lack of resistance. Therefore, The US’s interaction with China will vary according to the subject. Theoretically, the US will use both hard and soft tactics on subjects that strongly affect US interests and global stability. For example, it’s hard for the US to negotiate on the subject on RMB appreciation and market opening but still support China’s participation in international organizations.

Although China has conflicted with the US over RMB appreciation, trade disputes and service market opening, China has cooperated with America both on other economic and non-economic subjects. Thus, China has to establish a practical bilateral competition and cooperation policy. China and the US will both compete and cooperate in the future. Undoubtedly, China’s position in Sino-US relations will no doubt continue to increase.

Possible development after the Pittsburgh summit

In the next three years, each country will remain devoted to solving its own domestic structural economic problems. However, ending the economic stimulus policies may be the next big challenge for international economic and trade cooperation in the future. This summit is the prelude to the establishment of the necessary economic and trade coordination and cooperation policies between major countries.

However, it may be hard to solve coordination difficulties and international conflicts. The worst-case scenario would be that each country was forced to solve its own economic problems and trade cooperation problems by itself. If this is unsuccessful, there is the medium-term risk that another global asset price bubble might appear.

Outlook of Major Economies

According to IMF, OECD and EIU predictions, the US, Europe and Japan’s growth

rates for 2009 will be between -2% and -3%, -4% and -5%, and -5% and -7%, respectively, all negative. China’s growth rate will be around 8%, still positive. What does the recovery look like after financial crisis? Although the US will still head the global economy, how soon it will recover is a key reference index. Private consumption accounts for 70% of the United States’ GDP. Restricted by a high unemployment rate and a weak housing market, US GDP will not recover or surpass the 2008 level until 2011, even by optimistic estimates, and not until 2012 by conservative estimates. In other words, the biggest global market is showing signs of a mild U-shape recovery pattern in the future. The European Union and Japan will recover more slowly than the US.

Other major economies will have to play more important roles to solve the United States’ structural consumption problem. This problem involves major currency fluctuations. The US dollar will depreciate slightly but not as much as expected. The reason is that America’s private consumption will decrease in the mid-term, there will be a lower demand for foreign goods, and so the US dollar supply will be relatively lower in the global financial system. Secondly, America’s financial system reforms will restrain the issue of risky financial commodities. Unless the global surplus funds find an alternative currency immediately, demand for the US dollar will remain strong in the mid-term, which is why the US dollar will not devalue.

As to the Euro; the Euro has appreciated noticeably in the past few years and major economies in the Eurozone will recover slowly; being limited by future appreciation. Additionally, Japan will also recover much more slowly than other countries; their low interest rate environment will continue for some time. FDI and financial investment will be restrained by the low interest rates and limits on the Japanese yen appreciation. Other Asian currencies, such as the Korean won will appreciate noticeably because of significant depreciation in the past year.

The following section examines individually the world’s four largest economies; the United States, Europe, Japan and China, with a view to giving a brief analysis and explanation of the overall economic situation and future prospects.

United States of America

Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the third quarter of 2009 from four consecutive quarters of negative growth, according to the estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Information received since the Federal Open Market

Committee (FOMC) met in November suggests that economic activity has continued to pick up and that the deterioration in the labor market is abating. The pessimistic prediction for GDP growth rate in 2009 is -0.5%, much better than previous predictions of -0.6% to -1.6%. GDP growth rate will be 2% to 4% in 2010, higher than earlier predictions of 0.8% to 4%. FOMC members also consider that recovery will be slow, real GDP will grow mildly, and the unemployment rate will fall slowly in the next few years.

The housing sector has shown some signs of improvement over recent months. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index - Composite 10 CSXR has climbed since June 2009. Existing home sales have also increased since April 2009, and in October 2009 reached 6.1 million, close to the 2006 level, according to the statistics of the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Housing starts and housing permits have improved and new home sales in October 2009 finally increased after 41 months of negative growth. However, according to data of the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the foreclosure rate hit a record high in the third quarter of 2009. House prices will be pressed continuously by a weak housing market.

Regarding monetary policy, FOMC cut the federal target rate down to within a range of 0 to 0.25 percent in December 2008, and sustained a loose monetary policy. Due to mild growth or negative growth of private consumption, it is predicted that the target rate will be unchanged in the short term. Nevertheless, the committee is gradually slowing the purchasing pace of mortgage-backed securities; the amount having reduced to about USD 175 billion from USD 200 billion, meaning that quantitative easing of monetary policy can gradually be wound down.

The Purchase Management Index (PMI) announced by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) was up by 50 points from August 2009, the economic activities expanding continuously. In addition, capacity utilization increased from its low point of June 2009, and corporate profits gained as well. However, the unemployment rate remains at 10%, and the Economic Policy Institute (EPI) estimates that the unemployment rate will not start to fall until after it reaches 10.3% in the first quarter of 2010. On the other hand, retail sales have reversed to grow positively reflecting that household consumption is increasing gradually despite the most serious unemployment crisis since World War II. Nevertheless, consumer confidence fell slightly in December 2009, with consumers still worried about the weak economy and labor market. On the other hand, the weak US dollar and a strong demand from emerging economies have increased trade, but the soaring crude oil price and

bull commodity market has raised import costs. Thus imports were larger than exports and the trade deficit expanded.

According to the Conference Board statistics, the leading indicators of the last 10 months rose for the 7th straight month. In the half year through November, the index grew at a 5 percent pace and the index of coincident indicators of September 2009 remained unchanged. It is predicted that recovery is underway. According to the latest forecast of EIU in October 2008, the GDP growth rate will be -2.4% in 2009 and 2.5% in 2010. IMF estimated the GDP growth rate will be -2.7% in 2009 and 1.5% in 2010. The US economy is expected to show mild recovery in the future.

Table 1-1-1?US Forecast Summary

2008 2009(e) 2010(f) Real GDP growth (%) 0.4 -2.5 2.5 Unemployment rate (%) 5.8 9.4 9.7 Consumer price Inflation (%) 3.8 -0.5 1.2 Government balance (% of GDP) -3.1 -9.9 -10.4 Current-account balance (% of GDP) -4.9 -2.4 -2.7

US$ 3-month commercial paper rate (%) 2.1 0.3 0.3 Exchange rate (JPY : USD) 103 94 90 Exchange rate (USD : EUR) 1.47 1.40 1.42 Source: EIU (2009/11).

European Union / Eurozone

One year after the global financial crisis, the European Union, as with other economies, is using regular and non-regular policies to support the economy. The European System of Central Banks (ESCB) has maintained a low interest rate at 1% since May 2009 and injected liquidity into the banking systems. On the other hand, each country has used fiscal policy to eliminate real sector shocks. However, the Eurozone’s special monetary and political structure reduces policy effectiveness compared with other economies. But partial policies did work, according to information from Eurostat, the Eurozone’s GDP in the third quarter of 2009 decreased 4.1% from a year ago, and increased by 0.4% compared with the second quarter. The GDP has grown positively since the first quarter of 2008, showing signs of a recovery.

Strong exports and government expenditure made large positive contributions to GDP in the third quarter of 2009, but private consumption was still weak. Exports fell by 2.9%

from year ago, but the magnitude of the decrease has reduced. Although increasing imports have offset positive growth of exports, the net exports still made a positive contribution to GDP. Current account accounted for 0.07% of GDP and became a source of recovery. On the other hand, private consumption and fixed capital formation only decreased by 0.2% and 0.4% respectively, supported by economic stimulus packages.

The increasing unemployment may be a barrier to recovery. According to statistics from Eurostat, the unemployment rate has increased since early 2009, and was at 9.84% in October 2009. Unemployment was 15.57 million up by 134 thousand from a month earlier. It means that the severe unemployment situation will add to the uncertainty of recovery.

As to exchange rate, funds shifted to Europe because of low interest rate levels in the US and propelled the Euro to appreciate. The Euro appreciated from USD 1 = EUR 1.2785 to USD 1 = EUR 1.4914 in November 2009, an appreciation rate of around 7%. The interest rate gap between the US and Eurozone determines the fluctuation of the Euro, and the Euro will remain at a high level in the short term. The strong Euro harms exports and may affect the recovery.

The budget deficit accounted for 6.1% and 5.1% of GDP in the first and second quarters of 2009, both against 3% budget deficit pledges required to adopt the Euro. Some countries such as Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and the UK face credit risks. Greece’s budget deficit accounts for 12.7% of GDP and the government debt accounts for 112.6% of GDP. Moreover, Fitch downgraded Greece's credit rating from A- to BBB+ on December 8th2009, reflecting concerns over the medium-term outlook for public finances given the weak credibility of fiscal institutions and the policy framework in Greece. Hence, the European Commission set EU budget deficit deadlines of between 2012 and 2014/15 for 13 EU countries to slash budget deficits to below 3% of GDP.

According to information from the European Commission, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) was 88.8 in November 2009, up by 24.2 since March 2009. Although ESI rose for 8th straight month, it was apparently lower than the average level of 100 of 1990 to 2008. Manufacturing industry confidence rose 19 to -19, from its lowest level of March 2009. The service sector rose 21 to -4 reflecting rising consumer confidence. Retail and construction sectors both rose 6 points to -11 and 26, respectively. Although each index increased, they still remain at historical lows. These imply that enterprises are still conservative over investment and consumers are careful in their expenditure. There is

uncertainty over future recovery. According to the latest forecast from EIU in September 2008, the GDP growth rate is expected to be 0.2% in 2010.

Table 1-1-2?Eurozone Forecast Summary

2008 2009(e) 2010(f) Real GDP growth (%) 0.6 -4.1 0.2 Consumer inflation rate (%) 3.2 0.0 0.8 Unemployment rate (%) 7.7 10.0 11.5 Gross investment growth (%) -0.3 -13.2 -0.4 Government balance (% of GDP) -1.9 -6.5 -7.2 Current-account balance (% of GDP) -0.4 -0.8 -1.1

3-month Euribor (%) 4.6 1.3 1.1 Exchange rate (EUR : USD) 1.47 1.36 1.39 Source: EIU (2009/12).

Japan

As a result of the financial crisis, Japan fell into a deep recession in 2008 and 2009. Japan had recovered mildly after the ‘missing decade’ from 2003, but the US subprime crisis stopped the recovery in its tracks, and Japan’s economy reversed into a severe recession.

According to the Cabinet Office statistics, the real GDP growth rate was -8.4%, -7.7% and -4.4% in the first, second and third quarters of 2009, respectively. Fixed capital formation, exports and imports all decreased significantly. Private consumption also fell slightly with soaring unemployment and low consumer confidence. Only government expenditure rose due to the economic stimulus packages.

Japan’s unemployment rate increased fast in the first half year of 2009 and stood at a record high of 5.7% in July 2009. Accompanied by continuous economy promotion, the unemployment rate fell for three successive months and stood at 5.1% in October 2009. The demand of the employment market increased, but it is still difficult to seek employment.

Weak global demand and a strong Japanese yen appreciation caused Japan’s exports to decrease. Exports deceased by over 40% in the first half of 2009, and over 30% in the second half of 2009. Japan’s economy suffered severely as a result of export reduction. Nevertheless, imports fell as oil prices decreased and offset the negative effect in the trade surplus. Hence the trade surplus was still positive, one of the few pieces of good news during the recession.

The weak economy caused an unwinding of the massive yen carry trade and led to Japanese yen appreciation. Furthermore, US quantitative easing of monetary policy also supported the strong Japanese yen. The Japanese yen surged to a 14-year high of JPY 85 to the US dollar in November 2009. Corporate export profits, such as the motor and electric industries decreased significantly because of the Japanese yen appreciation. Japan’s government announced that they would not rule out the possibility of controlling the exchange rate to save export industries by allowing the Japanese yen to depreciate in the short term. However, a continuously weak US dollar may lead the Japanese yen back to its former high level.

As to industrial production, the manufacturing industry paused, affected by weak demand. The industrial production decreased by around 30% in the first half of 2009 but was restored by the subsequent recovery.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) lowered the interest rate to 0.1% in December 2008 and sustained the low level for one year. However, the deflation problem continuously worsened. The growth rate of consumer price index of 2009 continuously decreased and stood at a record low of -2.5% in October 2009. Therefore, BOJ will not raise the interest rate in the short term.

Japan’s government announced that it might re-issue JPY 50 trillion in government bonds to pay for the large-scale economic stimulus packages. Japan had a big government deficit in the past, and the OECD predicted the deficit will reach 200% of GDP in 2010 and become the biggest debtor in the world. Therefore, government debt will affect the future economy.

Looking forward, the World Bank and OECD estimate that Japan’s real GDP growth rate will be 1.0% and 1.8% in 2010, respectively. The IMF and EIU forecasted 1.7% and 1.5% in 2010, respectively. Major institutes forecast Japan’s GDP will have positive growth in 2010.

To sum up, faced with weak investment, production decrease, domestic consumption downturn, and bad job market conditions, Japan’s economy has fallen into a severe recession again. Although the government has used a loose monetary policy and expanding fiscal policy, confidence is still weak. The liquidity trap caused policies to be useless. Hence, Japan’s economy is expected to be weak in the short term. Until Japan’s government can solve the huge government debt and budget deficit, the overall economy remains very fragile in the long term.

Table 1-1-3?Japan Forecast Summary

2008 2009(e) 2010(f) Real GDP growth (%) -0.7 -5.5 1.5 Industrial production growth (%) -3.4 -22.2 11.5 Government consumption growth (%) 0.8 1.2 2.2 Private consumption growth (%) 0.6 -0.7 1.3 Fixed capital formation growth (%) -5.1 -13.2 -1.5 Export of goods and services growth (%) 2.0 -25.0 10.8 Import of goods and services growth (%) 0.9 -14.6 5.7 Consumer price inflation (%) 1.4 -1.3 -0.4 Unemployment rate (%) 4.0 5.1 5.6 Current-account balance (% of GDP) 3.2 2.8 2.7 Government balance (% of GDP) -2.7 -7.4 -8.0 Exchange rate (JPY?USD) 103.4 93.6 90.0 Source: EIU (2009/12).

China

The global financial crisis derived from the US subprime loan problem led to demand in the US and Europe declining which influenced China’s export sector and then real economic sector. China’s GDP growth rate decreased from 9.1% in the third quarter of 2008, to 6.8% in the fourth quarter of 2008, and 6.1% in the first quarter of 2009. In order to eliminate the shock and keep GDP growth rate at 8%, China’s government used a strong fiscal policy and loose monetary policy to stimulate the economy. A RMB 4 trillion expansion of domestic demand was the core of fiscal policy in which transport, infrastructure, construction and housing investment accounted for 80%. As to monetary policy, the People’s Bank of China (PBC) cut deposit and lending rates and the RMB reserve requirement ratio several times, moreover, PBC expanded credit and encouraged banks to offer loans. PBC created a loose monetary environment by these actions to inject financial liquidity.

China’s GDP growth rate decreased to 6.1% in the first quarter of 2009 from 6.8% in the fourth quarter of 2008, but improved to 7.9% and then 8.9% in the second and third quarters of 2009, respectively.

The major sector of expansion for domestic demand is to boost investment. The investment in urban fixed assets (accumulated) grew by 30.5% from March of 2009, and maintained a growth of over 30% in the seven months to October. This shows the great

impact of China’s stimulus policy. Additionally, China used a series of subsidization polices such as ‘home appliances for the villages’, ‘cars for the countryside’, and the ‘auto and home appliance replacement plan’ to sustain continuous retail sales growth. Retail sales for consumer goods for the year-to-September 2008 declined by 23.1%. However, the year on year figures for February 2009 showed a growth of 11.6%. For the year to March, retail sales growth was 14.7%, and this remained steady to reach 16.21% in October 2009.

Both China’s CPI and PPI grew negatively at the beginning of the financial crisis and many people were worried about a deflation problem. However, the year on year CPI growth rate decline was reduced from 1.6% in February 2009 to 0.5% in October 2009. The year on year PPI growth rate in December 2008 showed a decline of 1.1%. By July 2009 this had grown to a negative growth rate of 8.2% but subsequently reduced to a drop of 5.8% in October 2009.

As a result of the financial crisis, in November 2008, China’s exports and imports fell by 2.2% and 17.9%, respectively, from a year ago. However, the low base-period, global mild recovery and China’s economic recovery eliminated the decline in both exports and imports by October 2009.

Looking forward, China’s domestic consumption will grow continuously due to sustained economic and income improvement. China’s government wants to stimulate consumption to improve the imbalanced economic growth structure, thus the subsidization policies for stimulating consumption will be implemented continuously. However, overcapacity and repeated construction problems may slow fixed investment. Although both exports and imports will grow positively in 2010, external demand will not rebound as strongly. Therefore, sustained export growth will be one of the priority policies.

The strong economic stimulus package may have side effects such as an asset price bubble, overcapacity, repeated construction and inflation, and may cause uncertainty over future growth. Although China has already implemented some regulatory measures to adjust for these problems, it is less likely that China will use strong tightening measures due to the weakness of the global economy and uncertainty of recovery. However, loose monetary policy will come to an end. The timing of which will depend on the pace of China’s economic recovery and the seriousness of any asset price bubbles.

Table 1-1-4?China Forecast Summary

2008 2009(e) 2010(f) Real GDP growth (%) 9.0 8.2 8.9 Private consumption growth (%) 8.4 9.5 8.6 Government consumption growth (%) 8.2 12.4 10.4 Fixed capital formation growth (%) 10.1 15.0 12.1 Export of goods and services growth (%) 13.9 -9.0 4.8 Import of goods and services growth (%) 15.2 -4.5 7.2 Consumer price inflation (average, %) 5.9 -0.8 2.5 Source: EIU (2009/12).

Year 200520062007 2008 2009

NTD/USD32.1732.5332.84 31.52 33.05

Note: Exchange rate of USD to NTD

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