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The U.S. Federal Debt Outlook_ Reading th

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The U.S. Federal Debt Outlook: Reading the Tea Leaves
Oya Celasun and Geoffrey Keim
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2010 International Monetary Fund
WP/10/62
IMF Working Paper Western Hemisphere Department The U.S. Federal Debt Outlook: Reading the Tea Leaves1 Prepared by Oya Celasun and Geoffrey Keim Authorized for distribution by Charles Kramer March 2010 Abstract This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.
The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.
We show that fiscal policies reflecting a primary balance response to higher debt in line with historic experience would significantly increase the likelihood of reaching the debt targets of the U.S. administration in the medium term. Deficits and debt are higher under current budgetary proposals and IMF projections for real activity and interest rates, which do not include a reaction of policies to rising primary deficits. Under the IMF staff’s current economic projections, a primary fiscal adjustment of about 3.5 percent of GDP would be needed to achieve a debt level of about 70 percent of GDP in 2020. JEL Classification Numbers: E62, H68 Keywords: Public debt, fiscal sustainability, fan charts Author’s E-Mail Address: ocelasun@https://www.wendangku.net/doc/cc16863654.html,; gkeim@https://www.wendangku.net/doc/cc16863654.html,
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The authors thank Charlie Kramer, David Robinson, and Martin Sommer for useful comments.
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Contents
Page
I. Introduction ....................................................................................................................3 II. Federal Budget Projections—The Historic Record .......................................................4 III. Historic Fiscal Policy Behavior in the United States: How do Policy Makers Respond to Debt and Economic Cycles .......................................................................7 IV. The OMB’s and IMF’s Budget Projections for 2009–20 ..............................................9 V. Stochastic Simulations of Federal Government Debt Held by the Public ...................11 VI. Conclusions ..................................................................................................................13
Figures 1. U.S. Federal Debt Held by the Public (percent of GDP) ...............................................4 2. Fiscal and Economic Forecast Errors ............................................................................6 3. GNP/GDP Forecast Errors and Deficit Forecast Errors ................................................7 4. Actual and Predicted Primary Balances, 1949–2008 .....................................................9 5. Debt Profile Under Projected Primary Surplus Behavior (percent of GDP) ...............12 6. Debt Profile Under Historic Primary Surplus Behavior (Percent of GDP) .................13 Text Tables 1. Determinants of the Primary Balance ............................................................................8 2. Primary Deficit and Debt under Staff’s Baseline Projection and under Historic Primary Surplus Behavior ..........................................................................10 References ..........................................................................................................................15 Appendix: Debt Reduction after the Second World War ..................................................16
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3 I. INTRODUCTION The publicly held debt of the U.S. federal government rose sharply in 2008 and 2009 due to the decline in economic activity, and discretionary measures to stimulate the economy and stabilize financial markets. Looking ahead, the path of U.S. federal government is subject to an unusual degree of uncertainty, partly because of the continued large risks affecting the economy and partly because the future course of fiscal policies are uncertain. The Administration has put a forth a wide array of fiscal policy proposals in the FY 2010–11 budgets but many of these proposals are yet to be legislated by the U.S. Congress. Current federal debt projections vary greatly across forecasters reflecting the significant disagreement on the economic outlook and the future path of fiscal policies (Figure 1).2 Past experience with official budget forecasts portrays a record of large deviations between projections and outturns, given the inherent difficulty of predicting future policies and economic conditions. Against this backdrop, carefully assessing the risk profile of debt projections is important since the public debt outlook has potential implications for borrowing costs in the United States and abroad, and limits the set of feasible future fiscal policies.3
2
The staff’s fiscal projections are based on the Administration’s FY 2011 budget proposal adjusted for differences in the staff’s versus the Office and Management and Budget’s macroeconomic projections.
3
The empirical literature suggests that an increase in publicly held U.S. federal debt of one percent of GDP raises long-term real U.S. Treasury debt yields by 2-5 basis points. See, for instance, Laubach (2007) and Engen and Hubbard (2004). A number of studies, in turn, suggest that emerging market sovereign bond yields increase with U.S. government debt yields.
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Figure 1. U.S. Federal Debt Held by the Public (percent of GDP)
110 IMF 110
90
90
70
OMB
70
50
50
30 Projections 10 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Sources: Office of Management and Budget and Fund staff estimates.
30
10
This paper has two objectives—to evaluate the fiscal uncertainty stemming from economic conditions, and to compare debt profiles under different assumptions regarding future fiscal policies. The paper quantifies the uncertainty surrounding medium-term debt projections using fan charts—frequency distributions for debt over the horizon 2011–20— based on empirically plausible constellations of shocks to real output and interest rates. The fan charts are used to evaluate debt profiles under two alternative assumptions for the evolution of the primary balance: the primary balance path implied by the President’s FY 2011 Budget Proposal versus a primary balance path implied by estimated past fiscal policy adjustments to changing debt levels and the output gap. The rest of the paper is structured as follows. Section II provides an overview of the past record of budget and economic projections. Section III presents historic estimates of a primary surplus reaction function. Section IV presents fan charts of federal debt held by the public for the 2011–20 periods. Section V discusses the policy implications of the analysis.
II. FEDERAL BUDGET PROJECTIONS—THE HISTORIC RECORD There are two sources of official federal budget projections in the United States. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) annually presents projections of the federal budget and debt through for the next five to ten years (and updates them in the summer under the Mid-Session Review). The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) also estimates the deficit and debt implications of the President’s budgetary proposals. The CBO additionally produces biannual “baseline” projections of the Federal budget under the assumed continuation of current laws and policies (i.e., not taking into account any
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5 proposals that are yet to be legislated). None of these projections are meant to provide an objective prediction of fiscal balances in the medium-term, but rather projections under particular sets of policy and economic assumptions. Yet, they are the main sources of information available to the public on the likely future course of the fiscal path, and are, hence, closely watched. The IMF’s fiscal projections usually take the President’s Budget Proposal as a starting point, making adjustments for differences in underlying economic assumptions and for the likelihood of the enactment of various policies, where appropriate. The past record of budget projections shows a strong tendency for “optimistic” budget forecasts. Comparing fiscal outturns to the OMB’s budget projections from the initial year of each presidential term since 1977, one observes a much larger frequency of cases where the medium-term budget surplus was overestimated and the level of future debt was underestimated (Figure 2). The key exceptions are the budget projections made in fiscal years 1993 and 1997, partially reflecting an unexpected turnaround in economic activity after those years. While errors in predicting future real GDP have been significant contributors to budget forecast errors, they leave a large part of the variation in budget forecast errors unexplained. A scatter plot of budget and real GDP forecast errors show that large errors in projecting future economic activity tends to correlate with large errors in projecting future balances (Figure 3). However, a simple regression of budget projection errors on real GDP and CPI inflation forecast errors can explain only about 12 percent of the variation in budget errors, with CPI projection errors not contributing systematically to budget projection errors. That is, the evolution of future discretionary fiscal policy actions—and not just the automatic response of the budget balance to the economic cycle—have led to significant deviations of budget balances from their previously projected levels. Taken together, these stylized facts highlight the benefits of quantifying and assessing both the economic and fiscal policy risks surrounding public debt projections, as a complement to the deterministic projections that derive debt paths from a given set of policy actions embedded in the proposed budget. For instance, budgetary projections can be combined with empirically-realistic probability distributions for key economic variables to yield probability distributions for future debt under current policy proposals. Alternatively, probability distributions for economic variables could be augmented with behavioral assumptions for future policies. One possible augmentation would be a primary surplus reaction function estimated from past policy behavior. Combined with stochastic forecasts of macroeconomic variables, such a fiscal policy reaction function could be used to judge current policy proposals in terms of their implications for the future expected debt profile. The following sections provide such stochastic analysis.
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Figure 2. Fiscal and Economic Forecast Errors
Deficit
5 0 -5 -10 -15 1974 100 (percent of GDP; fiscal years) 80 60 40 20 0 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 2009 2016 1977 Actual 1982 1993 1997 1990 20 1980 2001 0 2005 2009 IMF Forecast 80 60 40 1981 1988 1995 2002 2009 2016 100 (percent of GDP; fiscal years) 1990 1977 1982 1986 1993 5 2001 0 2005 2009 -5 Actual IMF Forecast -10 -15
1980
Debt Held by the Public
Real GDP
150 (indexes, t-1 = 100) 140 -6.2 130 120 110 100 90 1977 1980 1982 1986 1990 1993 1997 2001 2005 2010 -11.2 -11.0 -3.1 -7.2 1.8 6.3 -3.6 -6.7 140 130 120 110 100 90 150
Consumer Prices
220 (indexes, t-1 = 100) 200 180 160 140 120 100 1977 1980 1982 1986 1990 1993 1997 2001 2005 2010 24.5 17.6 -19.6 200 180 160 1.1 5.0 -2.2 -2.4 4.2 140 120 100 220
-1.6
Note: Forecasts are compared to data collected from historical vintages and are not the currently published series. This method helps to limit the role new methodologies or revised data have on the forecast errors. Sources: Budget of the Federal Government (various years), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' ALFRED database, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, and Fund staff calculations.
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Figure 3. GNP/GDP Forecast Errors and Deficit Forecast Errors
4 2 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6
1 year 4 years 7 years 10 years 2 Years 5 years 8 years 3 years 6 years 9 years
Deficit Forecast Error (percent of GDP)
0 -2 -4 -6 -8
-8 -10
-10 -8.0
-6.0
-4.0 -2.0 0.0 GNP/GDP Forecast Error (percent)
2.0
4.0
Note: Forecasts are compared to data collected from historical vintages and are not the currently published series. This method helps to limit the role new methodologies or revised data have on the forecast errors. Sources: Budget of the Federal Government (various years), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' ALFRED database, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, and Fund staff calculations.
III. HISTORIC FISCAL POLICY BEHAVIOR IN THE UNITED STATES: HOW DO POLICY MAKERS RESPOND TO DEBT AND ECONOMIC CYCLES? The most relevant past episode to the current fiscal outlook is the aftermath of the Second World War, when a combination of strong real economic growth, low real interest rates and primary surpluses brought about an impressive reduction in federal debt held by the public (see the Appendix). Current circumstances are unlikely to lead to strong real growth in the near-to-medium term, underscoring the importance of future primary surpluses in bringing down debt.4
4
See Barrerra, Estevao, and Keim (2009) for an analysis of U.S. potential GDP growth prospects.
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Table 1. Determinants of the Primary Balance
Lag of debt as a percent of GDP Contemporaneous output gap as percent of GDP Constant 0.039 ** [0.015] 0.310 *** [0.083] -1.717 ** [0.658] 0.28 1948-2008 60
R-squared Observation period Number of observations
Notes: Standard errors are shown in brackets. *** and ** denote significance at the 1% and 5% levels, respectively. Ordinary least squares estimation. Dependent variable, the unified Federal Government Primary Balance as a percent of GDP.
Systematic evaluations of fiscal balances suggest that federal primary budget balances in the United States have historically increased rapidly in response to higher debt and the deviation of real GDP from potential output.5 A simple estimated fiscal reaction function for the period 1949–2008 suggests that the primary balance has risen on average by 0.039 percent of GDP for a one percentage point of GDP increase in debt held by the public (Table 1). This result can be interpreted as indicating policymakers have bolstered public finances in response to increases in debt, and suggests that fiscal policy has on average been responsible.6 In addition, the primary balance has on average increased by 0.310 percentage points of GDP in response to a one percentage point increase in the deviation of output from potential, illustrating the sensitivity of the federal government balance to economic conditions. Notably, however, actual surpluses exceeded the predicted levels quite significantly in most of the 1990s, but fell short of the model predictions over most of the 2000s (Figure 4). Hence, while such an estimated reaction function is not necessarily the best predictor of the policy path in any given point in time, it has the advantage of summarizing the long-run historic tendency in primary surplus behavior, and can be used as a benchmark for generating debt projections.
5
See for instance, Bohn (1998). This specification follows the base specification in Bohn (1998), who uses a somewhat different measure of cyclical variations in output and also includes a measure of temporary government spending. Estimating the reaction function over more recent time periods results in comparable coefficient estimates. Bohn (1998) shows that a positive coefficient on lagged debt in the primary balance reaction function would rule out an unstable debt path in the long-term (but a small coefficient would mean that debt stabilizes at a high level). The magnitude of the coefficient we estimate, 0.039 percent of GDP for each percentage point of GDP increase in debt, exceeds the average differential between ex-post real interest rates and growth in the United States ( e.g., 0.018 over 1985-99), which implies that the stabilization would be quite rapid if policymakers follow the reaction function.
6
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Figure 4. Actual and Predicted Primary Balances, 1949-2008 (percent of GDP)
6 6
3
3
0
0
-3 Predicted Actual -6 1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Sources: Office of Management, Haver Analytics, and Budget and Fund staff estimates.
-3
-6
IV. THE OMB’S AND IMF’S BUDGET PROJECTIONS FOR 2009–20 The OMB remains significantly more optimistic than IMF staff on the overall future path of the recovery. For instance, the differential between real interest rates on new borrowing and real GDP growth—a key determinant of the rate of debt accumulation—is projected by OMB at about half a percentage point or less over the medium term, while IMF staff projections put the projected differential at about 2 percentage points. IMF staff make projections for U.S. federal government deficits by making adjustments to OMB’s budget projections on the basis of the differential between staff’s and OMB’s assumptions on future real GDP growth, the GDP deflator, and interest rates on Treasury debt (of three-month and ten-year maturities). The elasticities IMF staff use to determine how budgetary outcomes will differ from those projected by the OMB on the basis of deviations in economic variables were chosen to broadly replicate the OMB’s sensitivity analysis for revenues and expenditures to key economic variables (The President’s FY 2010 Budget Proposal, Analytical Perspectives, Table 12–4). Adjusted to reflect the IMF staff’s economic projections, the FY 2011 budget proposal would push federal debt held by the public to about 105 percent of GDP by 2020.7 Revenues would be slightly lower than projected by the OMB, but expenditures would be
7
The Administration’s FY 2011 budget projects debt to reach levels comparable to those that would be obtained under the assumption of historical fiscal behavior, but with much less primary fiscal effort.
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10 significantly higher reflecting the higher costs of debt service and the inherently slow response of entitlement expenditures to changes in the path of real GDP growth. As discussed in more detail in the next section, the policy proposals under the FY 2011 budget would lead to a significantly higher level of debt than the path of primary surpluses implied by historical policy behavior. Under the staff’s baseline macroeconomic projections, if primary balances from 2012 onwards were to follow the relationship estimated in Section III using historical data, debt would stabilize immediately around 68 percent of GDP (Table 2). That is, if the rising debt levels lead policymakers to respond by adjusting fiscal policy early, with a magnitude consistent with the behavior observed in the past, upward pressures on debt would diminish significantly. If instead policymakers gradually shift toward policies implied by the estimated historic reaction function over the period 2012–20, debt would stabilize slightly above 80 percent of GDP in the medium term. While that adjustment path represents a significant improvement over the baseline path under the FY2011 budget proposal, it would still leave debt at a suboptimally high level in the medium term.
Table 2. Primary Deficits and Debt under Staff's Baseline Projection and under Historic Primary Surplus Behavior
(percent of GDP; fiscal years) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Primary deficit Staff's baseline based on FY 2011 budget Historic behavior (2012 onwards) Gradual shift towards historic behavior OMB budget projection Debt held by the public Staff's baseline based on FY 2011 budget Historic behavior (2012 onwards) Gradual shift towards historic behavior OMB budget projection 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.6 3.7 -0.7 2.8 3.0 2.8 -0.9 1.7 1.7 2.6 -0.9 1.1 1.1 2.9 -0.9 0.8 0.9 3.1 -0.9 0.4 0.7 2.9 -0.9 -0.1 0.5 2.7 -0.9 -0.6 0.2 2.9 -0.9 -1.0 0.5 2.9 -0.9 -1.5 0.7
69.3 69.3 69.3 69.3
73.2 68.7 72.3 71.0
76.6 68.2 74.5 71.9
80.2 68.0 76.5 72.3
84.3 67.8 78.3 72.9
88.6 67.7 79.8 73.6
93.0 67.7 80.9 74.2
97.3 101.9 106.8 67.7 67.8 68.0 81.5 81.8 81.7 74.8 75.9 77.2
Notes: Primary balances under historic behavior are calculated on the basis of the estimated reaction function shown in Table 1. Primary balances under a gradual shift toward historic behavior are given by the weighted average of the baseline IMF staff projection and the primary balance implied by the estimated historic reaction function. Under the gradual shift scenario, the weight on the primary balances derived from the historic reaction function is 0.2 in 2012 and smoothly rises to 1 in 2020. Sources: Office of Management and Budget and IMF staff estimates.
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11 V. STOCHASTIC SIMULATIONS OF FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC To generate stochastic forecasts of the key variables driving debt dynamics, a vector autoregression (VAR) model is estimated for real GDP growth and real interest rates on three-month and 10-year Treasury debt covering the period 1953–2009. A large number of stochastic forecasts are then derived from the estimated equation system, with shocks to the variables sampled from the estimated joint error probability distribution.8 In a first step, we quantify the uncertainty around debt projections based on the FY 2011 budget. Stochastic forecasts of growth and real interest rates derived from the estimated VAR model, combined with the primary surplus path implied by the FY 2011 budget (adjusted for the differences between growth and interest rate forecasts underpinning the budget versus the staff’s baseline economic projections), underscore the significant degree of uncertainty stemming from the economic environment (Figure 5).9 Importantly, with more than 80 percent probability, debt in 2020 would be higher than the Administration’s projection of 77 percent of GDP.10 Further, with about 20 percent probability, debt would exceed staff’s baseline debt projection of about 105 percent of GDP for 2020.
8
For a description of the methodology see Celasun, Debrun, and Ostry (2006).
9
In this exercise, the primary balance path as a share of GDP is assumed to follow IMF staff’s baseline projections, but the interest rate/growth differential which determines interest costs follow the stochastic VAR forecasts.
The IMF staff’s baseline debt projection is higher than the mean path of the simulated debt distribution since the average economic forecast based on the VAR estimated over 1953-2009 is more favorable than the economic assumptions under the IMF staff’s baseline. VAR forecasts are likely to over-predict growth going forward, since they do not take into account the output loss associated with financial crises (documented, for instance, by Cerra and Saxena, 2008). The IMF’s GDP projection allows for a financial crisis effect.
10
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Figure 5. Debt Profile Under Projected Primary Surplus Behavior (percent of GDP)
120 120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20 2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
20 2020
Note: The dark cone in the center is the 20 percent standard error interval around the median projection, and the overall cone marks the 80 percent confidence interval. The solid red line shows the staff's baseline projection. Sources: Office of Management and Budget, Haver Analytics, and Fund staff estimates.
What would the debt profile look like if future primary balances instead followed patterns in historic primary surplus behavior, exhibiting a significant response to higher debt and output gaps? Combining the estimated historical primary surplus reaction function with stochastic forecasts of real GDP growth and real interest rates—and allowing for empirically realistic shocks to the primary surplus—imply a much more favorable median projection but slightly larger variation around the median path (reflecting the realistic uncertainty embedded into projected primary surplus behavior) (Figure 6).
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Figure 6. Debt Profile Under Historic Primary Surplus Behavior (percent of GDP)
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2006 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2020
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Note: The dark cone in the center is the 20 percent standard error interval around the median projection, and the overall cone marks the 80 percent confidence interval. The solid red line shows the staff's baseline projection. Sources: Office of Management and Budget, Haver Analytics, and Fund staff estimates.
The results suggest that if the federal government on average adjusts the primary surplus as it has done in the past—implying a stronger improvement in the primary balance than under the staff’s baseline budget projections—the probability that debt in 2020 would exceed the Administration’s projection of 77 percent of GDP would be less than 40 percent. Notably, with more than 80 percent probability, debt would be lower than the level it would reach by 2020 under the IMF staff’s baseline.
VI. CONCLUSIONS Taking account of the joint stochastic distribution of real growth and real interest rates suggest significant uncertainty around the debt projections, with risks tilted toward a higher level of debt at the end of the forecast horizon, especially if primary surpluses do not rise to the same degree in response to rising debt as they have on average since 1949. Under the staff’s baseline economic projections for the January 2010 World Economic Outlook, stabilizing debt at about 70 percent of GDP over the 2015–20 period would require an adjustment of about 3.5 percent of GDP relative to the primary surplus path implied by the FY 2011 budget. With nondefense discretionary expenditures near historical lows and significant cuts in mandatory spending programs hard to achieve in the near term, most of the burden would need to fall on revenues, which on a general government basis are significantly lower than in most other large advanced economies.
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14 Policymakers could stabilize debt rapidly if they set primary federal budget balances in line with the estimated historic fiscal reaction function. However, the change in the primary budget balance that would result from a switch to historic behavior would be significantly larger than any adjustment that has occurred since the end of World War II. But if the adjustment were delayed, then a sizable debt buildup as shown in the gradual adjustment scenario in Section IV would occur. The tension between the needs to maintain adequate stimulus before a durable recovery is achieved and to secure sustainability in the face of aging and crisis related fiscal pressures calls for a delicate balancing act. It has been suggested that curbing the future growth rate of health care costs and implementing readily available policy options to reduce future net social security expenditures would relieve this tension. It is certainly true that long-run fiscal finances not only in the United States but also in many other advanced economies are unsustainable in the absence of such reforms. However, it would be too optimistic to assume that solely relying on actions to cut future health and aging-related expenditures would be enough to avert the potentially negative implications of the future fiscal path on growth. Thus, it is important that a credible and sizable fiscal adjustment is undertaken once a sustainable recovery is firmly entrenched. There are two basic reasons that bolster this view. First, under current budgetary proposals, federal debt held by the public in the U.S. is set to double to 80 percent of GDP from its pre-crisis level in merely five years and will continue to rise without further fiscal action. Aging and health related spending are not the key drivers of this debt build-up. If the estimates of the interest effect of debt in the academic literature are taken at face value, such a rise in debt could add 100–200 basis points to long term government yields. It is hard to argue that allowing for a further expansion of debt from such levels would not pose risks to real growth; in fact the economic costs of raising taxes to keep debt at this level are likely to be far outweighed by the potential costs of inaction and uncertainty.11 Second, there are no well-understood and easy solutions to the problem of curbing health care costs—the most important factor in long run fiscal spending. As frequently emphasized by the CBO, serious reductions in the trajectory of costs could prove elusive and will require constant policy effort, experimentation, and immense political determination. Betting on the sure implementation and success of measures without creating space for maneuver in case of delays or failures would be risky. The uncertainty around potential actions to curb health care costs is a key reason why a medium run fiscal correction is needed—in addition to urgently taking the steps to address the entitlements problems—before the aging on the population makes the latter even more politically challenging.
Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) document that real growth is significantly lower when public debt exceeds 90 percent of GDP.
11
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15 REFERENCES
Barrera, Natalia, Marcello Estevao, and Geoffrey Keim, 2009, “U.S. Potential Growth in the Aftermath of the Crisis,” United States: Selected Issues (Washington: International Monetary Fund). Bohn, Henning, 1998, “The Behavior of U.S. Public Debt and Deficits,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 113, No. 3, pp. 949–63. Celasun, Oya, Xavier Debrun, and Jonathan D. Ostry, 2006, “Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A Fan Chart Approach”, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 53 (3), pp. 401–25. Cerra, Valerie and Sweta C. Saxena, 2008, “Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery,” American Economic Review, March 2008, Vol. 98, No. 1, pp. 439–57. Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010, “Growth in a Time of Debt,” American Economic Review, May 2010, Vol. 100 No. 2.
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16 APPENDIX. DEBT REDUCTION AFTER THE SECOND WORLD WAR U.S. federal debt held by the public climbed from 42 to 108 percent of GDP over the period 1941–46. It was brought down back to 42 percent of GDP in the subsequent seventeen years, by 1963. A very favorable real interest rate/growth dynamic and, to a lesser extent, primary fiscal surpluses, contributed to the debt reduction in the post-WWII era (Figure A1 and Table A1): The primary balance averaged 1.4 percent of GDP and was in surplus in 14 out of the 17 years between 1946 and 1963. All other factors—given by the change in debt minus the primary balance—made a large contribution to deficit reduction, averaging 2.5 percent of GDP over the 1946–63 period. This residual component is predominantly driven by the differential between interest rates and output growth, which was unusually low during that period mainly due to strong real growth as well as low long-term interest rates given the Fed’s interest rate pegging policy (which lasted until 1951).
Figure A1. Soures of Change in Federal Debt Held by the Public (percent of GDP)
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961
Sources: Office of Management and Budget and Fund staff estimates.
40
Real interest and growth differential, and other below-the line adjustments to debt Primary Deficit Change in Debt
30 20 10 0 -10 -20
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17
Table A1. Sources of Change in Federal Debt Held by the Public
(percent of GDP; unless otherwise noted) Primary balance All other factors 1946-63 1963-84 1985-99 Memoranda: Real GDP growth* 1946-63 1963-84 1985-99 3.8 3.5 3.3 Real ten-year treasury bonds** 1.1 2.3 5.1 -1.4 0.5 -0.3 -2.5 -0.9 0.7
* Percent change, annual average. ** Percent, p.a. Notes: Real GDP growth data do not cover years prior to 1947. Real ex-post ten-year treasury bond rates are not available prior to 1952. Sources: Office of Management and Budget, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Haver Analytics, and Fund staff estimates
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163邮箱设置 1 · Outlook设置 2· Microsoft Outlook设置 3· Foxmail设置 Outlook 设置请手动配置你的客户端： 1. 首先，启动Outlook Express。打开“Internet 连接向导”；首先输入你的“显示名”，如：163免费邮。此姓名将出现在你所发送邮件的“发件人”一栏。，然后单击“下一步”按钮； 2. 在“Internet 电子邮件地址”窗口中输入你的邮箱地址，如：username@16 https://www.wendangku.net/doc/cc16863654.html,，再单击“下一步”按钮；

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Microsoft Outlook 设置请手动配置你的客户端： 1.打开Microsoft Outlook，点击“工具”，然后选“帐户”。 2.单击“添加”，在弹出菜单中选择“邮件”，进入Internet连接向导。 3.在“显示名：”字段中输入你的姓名，然后单击“下一步”。 4.在“电子邮件地址：”字段中输入你的完整163 免费邮地址(you@https://www.wendangku.net/doc/cc16863654.html,) ，然后单击“下一步”。 5.在“接收邮件（pop、IMAP或HTTP）服务器：”字段中输入https://www.wendangku.net/doc/cc16863654.html,。在“发送邮件服务器(SMTP)：”字段中输入https://www.wendangku.net/doc/cc16863654.html,，然后单击“下一步”。 6.在“帐户名：”字段中输入你的163免费邮用户名（仅输入@ 前面的部分）。在“密码：”字段中输入你的邮箱密码，然后单击“下一步”。 7.点击“完成”。 8.在Internet 帐户中，选择“邮件”选项卡，选中刚才设置的帐号，单击“属性”。 9.在属性设置窗口中，选择“服务器”选项卡，勾选“我的服务器需要身份验证”，并点击旁边的“设置”按钮。 10.登录信息选择“使用与接收邮件服务器相同的设置”，确保你在每一字段中输入了正确信息。 11.点击“确定”。恭喜！你已经完成Outlook 客户端配置，可以收发163 免费邮邮件了。

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中考语文课外阅读题（小说）题库（一）我家最富的时刻第二次世界大战前，我们家是城里唯一没有汽车的人家。我母亲安慰家里人说：“一个人有骨气，就等于有了一大笔财富。” 几个星期后，一辆崭新的别克牌汽车在街上展出了。这辆车已定在今夜以抽奖的方式馈赠给得奖者。当扩音器里大声叫着我父亲的名字，明白无误地表示这辆彩车已属于我们家所有时，我简直不相信这是事实。父亲开着车缓缓驶过拥挤的人群，我几次想跳上车去，同父亲一起享受这幸福的时刻，却被父亲给赶开了。最后一次，父亲甚至向我咆哮：“滚开，别呆在这儿，让我清净清净！”我无法A 父亲的举动。当我回家后B 地向母亲诉说的时候，母亲似乎非常理解父亲。她C 我说：“不要烦恼，你父亲正在思考一个道德问题，我们等着他找到适当的答案。” “难道我们中彩得到的汽车是不道德的吗” “过来，孩子。”母亲温柔地说。桌上的台灯下放着两张彩票存根，上面的号码分别是348和349，中彩号是348。“你能看出两张彩票有什么不同吗”母亲问。我看了好几遍终于看到其中一张彩票的一角上有用铅笔写的淡淡的K字。 “这K字代表凯特立克。”母亲说。 “吉米·凯特立克，爸爸交易所的老板！”我有些不解。 “对。”母亲把事情一五一十地给我讲了。当初父亲对吉米说，他买彩券时可以代吉米买一张，吉米嘟哝了一声：“为什么不可以呢”老板说完就去干自己的事了，国后可能再也没有想到过这件事。348那张是为凯特立克买的，可以看出那K字用大拇指轻轻擦过，但仍能看出淡淡的铅笔印。对我来说，这是件简单的事。吉米·凯特立克是个百万富翁，拥有十几辆汽车，他不会计较这辆彩车。 “汽车应该归我爸爸！”我激动地说。 “你爸爸知道该怎么做的。”母亲平静地回答我。不久，我们听到父亲进门的脚步声，又听到他在拨电话号码，显然电话是打给凯特立克的。第二天下午，凯特立克的两个司机来到我们这儿，把别克牌汽车开走了，他们送给我父亲一盒雪茄。直到我成年以后，我们家才有了一辆汽车。随着时间的流逝，我母亲那一句“一个人有骨气，就等于有了一大笔财富”的话语具有了新的含义。回顾以往的岁月，我现在才明白，父亲打电话的时候是我家最富有的时刻。 1．给下列加点的字注音。馈赠．．（）（）彩券．（）．．（）（）咆哮 2．在文中横线上填写适当的词语。 A．B．C． 3．文章题目的关键词语是什么其含义是什么对你有何启示答：。4．文章主要记叙了一件什么事（用简要的文字叙述）答：。5．文中的“贫”指什么“富”又指什么答：。（参考答案：1．Kuì zèng páo xiào quàn 2．理解委屈安慰3．关键词是“最富”；其含义是指道德品质的富有。启示：富有不仅指物质和金钱上的富有，更重要的是一个人道德品质的富有。4．主

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晋灵公不君（宣公二年）原文：晋灵公不君。厚敛以雕墙。从台上弹人，而观其辟丸也。宰夫胹熊蹯不熟，杀之，寘诸畚，使妇人载以过朝。赵盾、士季见其手，问其故而患之。将谏，士季曰：“谏而不入，则莫之继也。会请先，不入，则子继之。”三进及溜，而后视之，曰：“吾知所过矣，将改之。”稽首而对曰：“人谁无过？过而能改，善莫大焉。诗曰：‘靡不有初，鲜克有终。’夫如是，则能补过者鲜矣。君能有终，则社稷之固也，岂惟群臣赖之。又曰：‘衮职有阙，惟仲山甫补之。’能补过也。君能补过，衮不废矣。” 犹不改。宣子骤谏，公患之，使鉏麑贼之。晨往，寝门辟矣，盛服将朝。尚早，坐而假寐。麑退，叹而言曰：“不忘恭敬，民之主也。贼民之主，不忠；弃君之命，不信。有一于此，不如死也！”触槐而死。秋九月，晋侯饮赵盾酒，伏甲将攻之。其右提弥明知之，趋登曰：“臣侍君宴，过三爵，非礼也。”遂扶以下。公嗾夫獒焉。明搏而杀之。盾曰：“弃人用犬，虽猛何为！”斗且出。提弥明死之。初，宣子田于首山，舍于翳桑。见灵辄饿，问其病。曰：“不食三日矣！”食之，舍其半。问之，曰：“宦三年矣，未知母之存否。今近焉，请以遗之。”使尽之，而为之箪食与肉，寘诸橐以与之。既而与为公介，倒戟以御公徒，而免之。问何故，对曰：“翳桑之饿人也。”问其名居，不告而退。——遂自亡也。乙丑，赵穿①攻灵公于桃园。宣子未出山而复。大史书曰：“赵盾弑其君。”以示于朝。宣子曰：“不然。”对曰：“子为正卿，亡不越竟，反不讨贼，非子而谁？”宣子曰：“呜呼!‘我之怀矣，自诒伊戚。’其我之谓矣。” 孔子曰：“董狐，古之良史也，书法不隐。赵宣子，古之良大夫也，为法受恶。惜也，越竞乃免。” 译文：晋灵公不行君王之道。他向人民收取沉重的税赋以雕饰宫墙。他从高台上用弹弓弹人，然后观赏他们躲避弹丸的样子。他的厨子做熊掌，没有炖熟，晋灵公就把他杀了，把他的尸体装在草筐中，让宫女用车载着经过朝廷。赵盾和士季看到露出来的手臂，询问原由后感到很忧虑。他们准备向晋灵公进谏，士季说：“如果您去进谏而君王不听，那就没有人能够再接着进谏了。还请让我先来吧，不行的话，您再接着来。”士季往前走了三回，行了三回礼，一直到屋檐下，晋灵公才抬头看他。晋灵公说：“我知道我的过错了，我会改过的。”士季叩头回答道：“谁能没有过错呢？有过错而能改掉，这就是最大的善事了。《诗经》说：‘没有人向善没有一个开始的，但却很少有坚持到底的。’如果是这样，那么能弥补过失的人是很少的。您如能坚持向善，那么江山就稳固了，不只是大臣们有所依靠啊。

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农田水利学课程考试试题及答案姓名年级专业学号一、名词解释（每小题2分共10分） 1.灌水率： 2.排涝模数： 3.平均排除法： 4.（排涝计算中的）设计内水位： 5.容泄区：二．选择题（共10分） 1.灌溉设计标准是反映灌区效益达到某一水平的一个重要技术指标，一般以( )与( )表示？ A、灌溉设计保证率、抗旱天数。 B、水文年型、降水量。 C、设计灌溉用水量全部获得满足的年数、抗旱天数。 D、水源来水量、灌区需水量。 2.什么叫田间渠系的灌排相邻布置？（） A、灌溉渠道与排水沟道的规划布置。 B、田间各级渠道规划布置的形式。 C、田间灌排渠系并行相邻的布置形式。 D、田间灌排渠系交错的布置形式。

3.渠道的输水损失包括以下四个部分：（） A、干渠、支渠、斗渠及农渠等四级渠道的水量损失。 B、渠床土质、地下水埋深、渠道的工作制度及输水时间。 C、自由渗流、顶托渗流、渠床土质、与渠道的工作制度等。 D、渠道水面蒸发损失、渠床渗漏损失、闸门漏水与渠道退水等。 4.什么叫渠道水的利用系数？（） A、灌溉渠系的净流量与毛流量的比值。 B、某一级渠道的净流量与毛流量的比值。 C、田间实际灌入的有效水量与末级渠道的供水量之比。 D、实际灌入农田的有效水量和渠首引入的水量之比。 5.在渠道规划设计中，渠道最小流量有何作用？（） A、用以校核对下一级渠道的水位控制条件。 B、用以校核渠道不淤条件。 C、用以确定修建节制闸的位置。 D、用以校核对下一级渠道的水位控制条件和确定修建节制闸的位置，并按最小流量验算渠道不淤条件。 6.什么叫雨水径流集蓄灌溉工程？（） A、导引、收集雨水径流，并把它蓄存起来加以有效灌溉利用的工程技术措施。 B、田面、坡面、路面及屋面庭院等各类集水工程。

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新浪企业邮箱设置——foxmail设置提示：使用Foxmail收发邮件前，请首先查看您的Foxmail的版本号，如果您使用的版本低于3.11（3.1或更低），请到Foxmail 网站下载支持SMTP认证的Foxmail 3.11，并进行安装或升级；然后按照以下方法进行设置： 1、单击主菜单中的"帐户"，选择"新建"菜单项打开Foxmail用户向导，如下图所示； 2、单击"下一步"按钮打开"建立新用户帐号"窗口，如下图所示，在用户名处填写您的名字，可以是真实姓名，也可以是代号，它将显示在Foxmail的主页面。同时指定您的邮件保存路径，一般选择默认路径;

3、单击"下一步"按钮打开"邮件身份标记"窗口，如下图所示，在"发送者姓名"处填写您的名字，可以是真实姓名，也可以是代号，它将出现在您所发送邮件的"寄件人"一栏中。在"邮件地址"处填写您的邮件地址，如：wu@https://www.wendangku.net/doc/cc16863654.html,，它将使收信人知道您的地址并给您回信；

4、单击"下一步"按钮打开"指定邮件服务器"窗口，如下图所示，在“POP3服务器”处填写https://www.wendangku.net/doc/cc16863654.html,，在“SMTP 服务器”处填写https://www.wendangku.net/doc/cc16863654.html,，在“POP3帐户名”处填写您的邮件地址，如wu@https://www.wendangku.net/doc/cc16863654.html,，在"密码"处设定邮件服务器密码； 5、单击"下一步"按钮打开"帐户建立完成"提示页面，如下图所示，单击"完成"按钮关闭窗口，并回到Foxmail邮件夹页面，新建立的帐户将显示在Foxmail的主页面；

6、点击该帐户头像，然后单击主菜单中的"帐户"，选择"属性"菜单项打开"帐户属性"对话框； 7、选择"邮件服务器"选项，勾选"SMTP服务器需要认证"前的勾选框，此时右侧的"设置"按钮由禁止（灰色）变为可选（黑色），如下图所示;

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是我预料的那样正在跳舞，却已经到了这边。我和他攀谈起来。我问他：你今天怎么这么早?老人咳嗽了一声，缓缓地说：许是人老了，早上总起不来。昨天听学校说耽误了学生上早读，今天我就起了早。谁知等了好长时间，才来了你一个人。说完，便送我过河。 ⑤船到河心，老人忽然回头对我说道：你们小孩子可要好好读书啊。那双眼中竟满含着期待和爱意。我心中一辱，看着老人瘦弱的身体，沾满冰碴的白胡子，一双手冻得发紫，猛地问道：你干啥要吃这份苦呢?好久，老人长叹一声说道：干啥？哎，以前我也有一个可爱的儿子，他曾吵着要上学，但终究没上成。后来他得病去了，我一直感到对不起他，我在这儿摆渡，接送你们上学，心里好受些。谈话间，船已到岸。待我上岸后，老人又把船向河那边撑去。看着老人的背影，我不再感到笨拙可爱，鼻子有些酸酸的。 ⑥那天，我把老人的故事讲给同学们听了。以后，我们上船再也没有起哄。于是老人饱经风霜的脸上出现了笑容。 ⑦再后来，两岸之间架起了一座桥。最后一次过河时，老人对我们说：以后不再送你们过河了，你们要记住，好好读书。 ⑧好好读书，这句话一直留在我记忆中。 ⑨真想再见见摆渡老人。 13、本文具体描述了摆渡老人接送我们过河上学的辛劳。

《鞌之战》阅读答案(附翻译)原文及翻译

《鞌之战》阅读答案（附翻译）原文及翻译鞌之战[1] 选自《左传成公二年（即公元前589年）》【原文】癸酉，师陈于鞌[2]。邴夏御齐侯[3]，逢丑父为右[4]。晋解张御郤克，郑丘缓为右[5]。齐侯曰：余姑翦灭此而朝食[6]。不介马而驰之[7]。郤克伤于矢，流血及屦，未绝鼓音[8]，曰：余病[9]矣！张侯[10]曰：自始合，而矢贯余手及肘[11]，余折以御，左轮朱殷[12]，岂敢言病。吾子[13]忍之！缓曰：自始合，苟有险[14]，余必下推车，子岂识之[15]？然子病矣！张侯曰：师之耳目，在吾旗鼓，进退从之[16]。此车一人殿之[17]，可以集事[18]，若之何其以病败君之大事也[19]？擐甲执兵，固即死也[20]。病未及死，吾子勉之[21]！左并辔[22]，右援枹而鼓[23]，马逸不能止[24]，师从之。齐师败绩[25]。逐之，三周华不注[26]。【注释】 [1]鞌之战：春秋时期的著名战役之一。战争的实质是齐、晋争霸。由于齐侯骄傲轻敌，而晋军同仇敌忾、士气旺盛，战役以齐败晋胜而告终。鞌：通鞍，齐国地名，在今山东济南西北。 [2]癸酉：成公二年的六月十七日。师，指齐晋两国军队。陈，

列阵，摆开阵势。 [3]邴夏：齐国大夫。御，动词，驾车。御齐侯，给齐侯驾车。齐侯，齐国国君，指齐顷公。 [4]逢丑父：齐国大夫。右：车右。 [5]解张、郑丘缓：都是晋臣，郑丘是复姓。郤（x ）克，晋国大夫，是这次战争中晋军的主帅。又称郤献子、郤子等。 [6]姑：副词，姑且。翦灭：消灭，灭掉。朝食：早饭。这里是吃早饭的意思。这句话是成语灭此朝食的出处。 [7]不介马：不给马披甲。介：甲。这里用作动词，披甲。驰之：驱马追击敌人。之：代词，指晋军。 [8] 未绝鼓音：鼓声不断。古代车战，主帅居中，亲掌旗鼓，指挥军队。兵以鼓进，击鼓是进军的号令。 [9] 病：负伤。 [10]张侯，即解张。张是字，侯是名，人名、字连用，先字后名。 [11]合：交战。贯：穿。肘：胳膊。 [12]朱：大红色。殷：深红色、黑红色。 [13]吾子：您，尊敬。比说子更亲切。 [14]苟：连词，表示假设。险：险阻，指难走的路。 [15]识：知道。之，代词，代苟有险，余必下推车这件事，可不译。 [16]师之耳目：军队的耳、目（指注意力）。在吾旗鼓：在我们

农田水利学试题六

农田水利学课程考试试题姓名年级专业学号一、名词解释（每小题2分共10分） 1、渠道设计流量： 2、灌溉水利用系数： 3、最小流量： 4、田间净流量:： 5、不冲流速：二．单向选择题（共10分） 1.地下水临界深度是指? （） A、地下水埋藏深度。 B、在一定的自然条件和农业技术措施条件下，为了保证土壤不产生渍害，所要求保持的地下水最小埋深。 C、在一定的自然条件和农业技术措施条件下，为了保证土壤不产生盐碱化和作物不受盐害，所要求保持的地下水最小埋深。 D、在一定的自然条件和农业技术措施条件下，为了保证土壤不产生盐碱化和作物不受盐害，所要求保持的地下水最大埋深。 2.对于控制一定地下水位要求的农田排水系统，下列哪种说法是正确的？（） A、在同一排水沟深度的情况下，排水沟的间距愈大，地下水位下降速度愈快，在一定时间内地下水位的下降值愈大，在规定时间内地下水位的下降值也愈大。 B、在允许的时间内要求达到的地下水埋藏深度ΔH一定时，排水沟的间距愈大，需要的深度也愈大。 C、在允许的时间内要求达到的地下水埋藏深度ΔH一定时，排水沟的间距愈小，需要的深度也愈大。 D、在同一排水沟间距的情况下，排水沟的深度愈小，地下水位下降速度愈快，在一定时间内地下水位的下降值愈大，在规定时间内地下水位的下降值也愈大。

3.设计排涝标准时，需选择发生一定重现期的暴雨，一般选择标准是？（） A、1-5年。 B、5-10年。 C、10-15年。 D、15-20年。 4.对渍害最不敏感的作物是？（） A、小麦； B、玉米； C、高粱； D、水稻。 5.特别适宜防治土壤次生盐碱化的农田排水方式是？（） A、明沟排水； B、竖井排水； C、暗管排水； D、暗沟排水。 6.在进行排水沟设计时，用来校核排水沟的最小流速的设计流量是？（） A、排涝设计流量； B、排渍设计流量； C、日常排水设计流量； D、排涝模数。 7.农田长期渍水不会造成下列后果？ A、土壤的透气性很差。 B、土层都处于强烈的氧化状态。 C、利于硫化氢等硫化物的形成，对作物根系产生永久性伤害。 D、有机质矿化程度低，分解释放的有效养分少，不能满足作物生长的需要。 8.防治土壤盐碱化的水利技术不包括？（） A、明沟排水 B、井灌井排 C、灌水冲洗 D、放淤改良 9.什么叫计划用水？（） A、灌溉水量的分配方法。 B、就是按作物的需水要求与灌溉水源的供水情况，结合渠系工程状况，有计划地蓄水、引水、配水与灌水。 C、是指灌溉水在灌区各级渠系调配、管理的方式。 D、是指灌溉水通过各级渠道流入田间的方法。 10.灌区用水计划一般来说有哪四种主要类型？（） A、水源引水计划、渠系配水计划与田间的用水计划等。 B、水权集中、统筹兼顾、分级管理、均衡受益。 C、年度轮廓用水计划、某灌季全渠系用水计划、干支渠段用水计划及用水单位的用水计划。 D、上下结合、分级编制，统一调度、联合运用。

摆渡老人阅读题答案

摆渡老人阅读题答案读中学时学校与我们村隔着一条河由此认识了那摆渡老人。当时那老人一直是我们取乐的对象。每到放学肚子饿得直叫的我们便一窝蜂向渡口跑去挤在那儿。渡船只要一靠近岸大家便争先恐后地向船上跃去。虽然老人很有经验来到岸边便做好回撑的准备但超载和落水的事仍然时有发生。超载时船上的岸上的都望着老人手忙脚乱的样子大笑。夏天下雨时大家总是把伞迎着风看着渡船被吹到离渡口好远的地方老人一番折腾将船撑到渡口我们便哄笑着上了岸。最有意思的要数冬天。冬天很冷河面结了一层厚厚的冰。每天早晨当我们赶到渡口时总看见老人在那边摇着船好长时间才把船摇过来。一直到船靠岸。我们往往因此耽误了早读但我们都挺愿意。于是就希望天再冷些便可迟点起来反正去早了也过不了河。我们都为找到一个偷懒的理由而感到高兴。当时的我们是“心忧读书愿天寒”。那一天特别冷我因有事起了个早。吃过早饭后便不紧不慢地向学校走去。到渡口时我惊奇地发现那老人不是我预料的那样正在“跳舞”却已经到了这边。我和他攀谈起来。我问他“你今天怎么这么早”老人咳嗽了一声缓缓地说“许是人老了早上总起不来。昨天听学校说耽误了学生上早读今天我就起了早。谁知等了好长时间才来了你一个人。”说完便送我过河。船到河心老人忽然回头对我说“你们小孩子可要好好读书啊。”那双眼睛竟满含着期待和爱意。我心中一震看着老人疲弱的身体沾满水碴?6?7碴á?6?8小碎块。的白胡子一双冻得发紫的手猛地问到“你干啥要受这份苦呢”好久老人长叹一声说道“干啥哎以前我也有一个可爱的儿子他曾吵着要上学但终究没上成。后来他得病去了我一直感到对不起他。我在这儿摆渡接送你们上学心里好受些。”谈话间船已到岸。待我上岸后老人又把船向河那边撑去。看着老人的背影我不再感到笨拙可笑鼻子有些酸酸的。那天我把老人的故事讲给同学们听了。以后我们乘船再也没有起哄。于是老人饱经风霜的脸上现出了笑容。再后来两岸之间架起了一座桥。最后一次过河时老人对我们说“以后不再送你们过河了你们要记住好好读书啊。” “好好读书”这句话一直留在我的记忆中。真想再见见摆渡老人。 1本文具体描述了摆渡老人接送“我们”过河上学的辛劳。先写老人因“我们”的______而手忙脚乱一番折腾再写因 ______老人好不容易“才把船晃过来”最后写老人不顾自己________特地起大早送“我们”过河上学。用概括的语言填空 2第⑤段中摆渡老人说“我在这儿摆渡接送你们上学心里好受些”。请你用自己的语言简要说说为什么老人觉得这样做“心里好受些”。分析摆渡老人的心理答______________________________________________________ 3第⑤段中加粗的词句表现了“我”当时_______和_______的心情。 4原先摆渡老人在孩子们的眼里是一个______的形象后来摆渡老人在孩子们的心中却是一个______的形象。用自己的话填空5“摆渡老人”中的“摆渡”可以理解为老人对“我们”生活、思想上的帮助。其实生活中还有许多这样的“摆渡者”请你展开联想按照下面的示例仿写三个句子。新题型示例1作家把读者摆渡到精神的彼岸。训练联想和表达能力 2 “希望工程”把贫穷的孩子摆渡到求知的校园。仿句1______________________________________________________

《鞌之战》阅读答案附翻译

《鞌之战》阅读答案（附翻译）《鞌之战》阅读答案（附翻译）鞌之战[1] 选自《左传·成公二年（即公元前589年）》【原文】癸酉，师陈于鞌[2]。邴夏御齐侯[3]，逢丑父为右[4]。晋解张御郤克，郑丘缓为右[5]。齐侯曰：“余姑翦灭此而朝食[6]。”不介马而驰之[7]。郤克伤于矢，流血及屦，未绝鼓音[8]，曰：“余病[9]矣！”张侯[10]曰：“自始合，而矢贯余手及肘[11]，余折以御，左轮朱殷[12]，岂敢言病。吾子[13]忍之！”缓曰：“自始合，苟有险[14]，余必下推车，子岂识之[15]？——然子病矣！”张侯曰：“师之耳目，在吾旗鼓，进退从之[16]。此车一人殿之[17]，可以集事[18]，若之何其以病败君之大事也[19]？擐甲执兵，固即死也[20]。病未及死，吾子勉之[21]！”左并辔[22]，右援枹而鼓[23]，马逸不能止[24]，师从之。齐师败绩[25]。逐之，三周华不注[26]。【注释】 [1]鞌之战：春秋时期的著名战役之一。战争的实质是齐、晋争霸。由于齐侯骄傲轻敌，而晋军同仇敌忾、士气旺盛，战役以齐败晋胜而告终。鞌：通“鞍”，齐

国地名，在今山东济南西北。 [2]癸酉：成公二年的六月十七日。师，指齐晋两国军队。陈，列阵，摆开阵势。 [3]邴夏：齐国大夫。御，动词，驾车。御齐侯，给齐侯驾车。齐侯，齐国国君，指齐顷公。 [4]逢丑父：齐国大夫。右：车右。 [5]解张、郑丘缓：都是晋臣，“郑丘”是复姓。郤（xì）克，晋国大夫，是这次战争中晋军的主帅。又称郤献子、郤子等。 [6]姑：副词，姑且。翦灭：消灭，灭掉。朝食：早饭。这里是“吃早饭”的意思。这句话是成语“灭此朝食”的出处。 [7]不介马：不给马披甲。介：甲。这里用作动词，披甲。驰之：驱马追击敌人。之：代词，指晋军。 [8]未绝鼓音：鼓声不断。古代车战，主帅居中，亲掌旗鼓，指挥军队。“兵以鼓进”，击鼓是进军的号令。 [9]病：负伤。 [10]张侯，即解张。“张”是字，“侯”是名，人名、字连用，先字后名。 [11]合：交战。贯：穿。肘：胳膊。 [12]朱：大红色。殷：深红色、黑红色。 [13]吾子：您，尊敬。比说“子”更亲切。

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