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L 11 Weltbev?lkerung

H?rtext

Die Bev?lkerungsentwicklung in China und in Deutschland

Gemeinsamkeiten und Unterschiede

Welche Gemeinsamkeiten gibt es zwischen China und Deutschland? Man denkt vielleicht, es gebe keine Gemeinsamkeiten: 82 Millionen Deutsche stehen 1,3 Milliarden Chinesen gegenüber.

Die überalterung der Gesellschaft ist in beiden L?ndern ein gemeinsames Problem. Die Lebenserwartung nimmt zu. Die Lebenserwartung ist die Anzahl der Jahre, die ein Mensch nach seiner Geburt wahrscheinlich erleben wird. Heute liegt die Lebenserwartung in Deutschland für Jungen bei 75,59 Jahren und für M?dchen bei 81,34 Jahren. Die Lebenserwartung in China erreichte im Jahre 1999 71 Jahre, was dem Niveau eines entwickelten Landes entsprach. Heute ist sie noch weiter gestiegen.

Nach den Prognosen der Wissenschaftler wird der Anteil der über 60-J?hrigen an der Bev?lkerung im Jahr 2050 in beiden L?ndern bei rund einem Drittel liegen. Für China bedeutet das 438 Millionen Menschen über 60 Jahre, davon 100 Millionen über 80 Jahre. In Deutschland wird es im Jahr 2050 17,8 Millionen Menschen im Alter zwischen 60 und 80 Jahren und 10 Millionen über 80-J?hrige geben. Im Jahr 1950 gab es in Deutschland nur 700.000 Menschen über 80 Jahre, im Jahr 2007 dann 3,9 Millionen. Ende 2005 wurden 100 Millionen Chinesen über 65 Jahre gez?hlt, die 7.69% der gesamten Bev?lkerung ausmachten. Die Zahl der Chinesen mit über 60 Jahren betrug 144 Millionen, was 11.03% der gesamten Bev?lkerung waren.

Interessant ist ein Vergleich der Lebensformen der alten Menschen: In Deutschland lebt etwa ein Drittel der über 65-j?hrigen alleine – in China sind es weniger als 10%. Umgekehrt leben knapp zwei Drittel der ?lteren Menschen in China zusammen mit ihren Kindern –in Deutschland nur 11%. In China steht die Ein-Kind-Familie bei der Versorgung der Alten durch die Kinder vor gro?en Problemen. In Deutschland kann wegen der vielen alten Menschen der Staat nicht mehr die Rente in der gewünschten H?he bezahlen. Und man fragt sich, wer die vielen Alten pflegen soll.

Die chinesische Bev?lkerung wird im jetzt folgenden Jahrzehnt weiter j?hrlich um über 10 Millionen Menschen wachsen. China z?hlt aber inzwischen zu den L?ndern mit einer niedrigen Geburtenrate. Um ihre Geburtenraten zu senken, brauchten manche entwickelten L?nder mehrere Jahrzehnte. Seit der Einführung der Familienplanung sind insgesamt rund 300 Millionen Chinesen weniger geboren worden. Das hat auch zur Erh?hung des Lebensstandards beigetragen. In Deutschland wird die Zahl der Einwohner sinken, was zu Problemen bei den Arbeitskr?ften in der Wirtschaft führen wird.

Das ungleiche Verh?ltnis zwischen Jungen und M?dchen bei Neugeborenen wird in China gesellschaftliche Probleme verursachen. Schon jetzt gibt es in der Altersgruppe der unter 20-J?hrigen einen überschuss von 32 Millionen Jungen. Dieses Verh?ltnis von 119 Jungen zu 100 M?dchen bei den Kindern hat in der Zukunft weitere Folgen. Zum Beispiel mü?ten in den jeweiligen Altersjahrg?ngen die Frauen im Durchschnitt wieder mehr Kinder bekommen als ihre Mütter, um die Bev?lkerungszahl Chinas zu halten.

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