微电网环境下光伏发电短期输出功率预测研究

微电网环境下光伏发电短期输出功率预测研究

来金钢;周洪;胡文山

【期刊名称】《新型工业化》

【年(卷),期】2014(000)012

【摘要】随着光伏发电的装机容量的不断扩大，由于光伏发电的随机性，它的输出电能对于电力系统的影响越来越大。为了减轻它对于电力系统的影响，光伏发电短期功率预测变得相当重要。基于自行设计与开发的光伏电站的实际运行数据，本文对光伏发电系统的短期输出功率预测进行了探索研究。分析了天气类型、大气温度和太阳辐射强度等因素对预测结果的影响，分析了数据之间的相关性，基于现有预测模型成果，提出了一种改进预测方法，并通过评估分析了这种预测方法的效果和意义。%With the photovoltaic (PV) installed capacity continues to expand in Microgrids, due to the randomness of photovoltaic generators, the affection of its output power for the power system is in-creasingly. In order to reduce its impact on the power system, PV power short-term forecasting becomes very important. In this paper, the short-term prediction of the output power of the PV generators in Mi-crogrids is studied based on the practical running data of the photovoltaic power station developed by ourselves. This paper analyzes the impact of these factors (such as the type of weather, air temperature and solar radiation intensity) on the prediction results, and also the data correlation. We proposed an im-proved prediction method based on the existing achievements. The effectiveness of the