Perspectives - June 2007

Perspectives - June 2007

全球经济展望- 2007年6月

Perspectives from Franklin Templeton's Global Fixed Income Team

富兰克林全球固定收益团队的投资观点

●Income Fund Investing: Utilities power up FTIF Franklin Income Fund

●收益基金：富兰克林收益基金看好公用事业板块

●India: Fundamentals Favor Continued Economic Growth

●印度：经济增长趋势保持不变

●Fixed income: Spike in long bond yields may provide some openings

●固定收益：投资长期债券时机成熟

●Mutual Series: European Equities Still Looking Good

●共同基金：依旧看好欧洲股票

Income Fund Investing: Utilities power up FTIF Franklin Income Fund

收益基金：富兰克林收益基金看好公用事业板块

Investment returns in the utilities sector have been growing, along with demand for energy, as a result of economic expansion around the world. Currently, the utilities sector is one of our largest industry weightings in FTIF Franklin Income Fund, as we believe it offers attractive opportunities.

伴随着全球经济的扩张，以及对能源需求的增长，公用事业板块的投资回报率一直在稳步提高。目前,公用事业板块在FTIF富兰克林收益基金中占了最大比重，因为我们认为它提供了许多具有吸引力的投资机会。

Today, investors need to look at the utilities industry in a different way than they have historically. The industry is changing from homogeneity and becoming much more differentiated. Traditional, regulated utilities still exist, but we are increasingly finding hybrid-type players and independent power-producer, growth-oriented companies as well. They represent a much more diverse group. Within the industry we focus on companies with attractive dividend yields and good opportunities for dividend growth.

如今，投资者不应以过去的眼光去看待公用事业板块，该行业正逐渐从单一化趋于多样化。传统体制依然存在，但我们也发现有越来越多的混合型参与者、独立的电力生产商以及增长为导向的公司出现。它们代表了一个更加多元化的集团，就业内而言,我们更多地关注那些股息收益较好、拥有股息增长机遇的公司。

We are particularly excited about one of our larger holdings, New Jersey-based Public Service Enterprise Group, which offers the potential for attractive dividend yields and solid dividend growth going forward. The company is tapping into many different themes within the industry, such as improving fundamentals and the increasing demand for power, which is helping its margins. We believe these drivers will continue to be positive for the stock.

尤其令我们感到欣喜的是我们的重仓之一，新泽西州的公共服务企业集团有限公司，它拥有股息收益和固定股息增长的潜力，而且其发展势头良好。该公司挖掘到许多不同题材的产业，

如改善基础设施建设和增加电力需求，这些都有助于提高其利润，我们相信，这些也都将持续有力地推动股价的上升。

Another utility we like is TXU, the target of a buyout by private equity firms Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Texas Pacific Group. We believe buyouts and takeouts can help accelerate utility industry growth and add value for investors.

另一个我们看好的公用事业股票是TXU，它是私募股权基金科尔伯格克拉维斯罗伯茨及Texas Pacific Group的收购目标。我们认为，并购业务可帮助加快公用事业产业成长和让投资增值.

Profiting from deb t

债券投资获利

Equities tell only one part of the FTIF Franklin Income Fund story. The fund is actually a hybrid portfolio of stocks and convertible and corporate bonds. Over the last several weeks, in addition to a backup in yields, corporate credit spreads have continued tightening. As a result, we have been looking to pick our spots and, in some cases, we have let go of bond positions we thought had achieved full valuations.

股票仅说明了FTIF富兰克林收益基金的一部分情况。我们的基金实际上是一种股票与可转换债券和公司债券的组合投资。在过去的几个星期，除了已有收益的支撑，企业信贷差仍将继续紧缩。最终，我们会将已达到充分估值的债券抛售一部分。

On the buy side, we have found some interesting opportunities in Ford Motor Credit and GMAC bonds. We felt the market was overly discounting problems at both parent companies, General Motors and Ford. We have held the positions for more than a year now, and they have performed quite well relative to the broader fixed income market. That said, these positions are relatively short dated and, therefore, somewhat insulated against fluctuation risk. Furthermore, the parent companies still have tremendous liquidity we think will help them weather any near-term fundamental issues.

作为买方，我们认为福特汽车信贷和GMAC债券有部分的投资机会。我们认为市场对于两家总公司估值过低，我们已经持有其一年多了，它在固定收益市场上有着相当不俗的表现。一般说来，这些资产期限都较短，所以可以免受市场波动风险。此外，其母公司仍具有极大的资产流动性，这能让它们安然渡过任何短期的流动性问题。

Chart 1: S&P 500 Index vs. S&P 500 Utilities Index

India: Fundamentals Favor Continued Economic Growth

印度：经济持续增长趋势保持不变

Liberalization since the early 1990s and accompanying progressive economic reforms have transformed India’s corporate landscape today, resulting in high sustainable economic growth. Annual GDP growth has been in excess of 8% for the past few years, prompting some analysts to make bold predictions. Consulting firm McKinsey believes India will become the fifth-largest consumer market by 2025, while Goldman Sachs sees India quadrupling its per capita income by 2020 and becoming the world’s second-largest economy by 2050.

自90年代初至今，自由化浪潮伴随着循序渐进的经济改革改变了印度的整体景观，也带来了经济的可持续增长。在过去几年中，印度全年国内生产总值增长已超过8%，这促使一些分析师大胆预言，咨询公司麦肯锡认为到2025年印度将成为美国第五大消费市场，而高盛公司甚至认为2020年印度人均收入将翻两番，并在2050年成为世界第二大经济体。

The three main drivers of India’s growth are increasing domestic consumption, infrastructure and corporate investments, and global outsourcing.

印度经济增长的三个主要驱动因素是国内消费，基础设施建设和公司投资，以及全球外包的增加。

Domestic consumption is becoming increasingly instrumental in boosting the country’s GDP. In a time of growing global uncertainty and market volatility, such self-reliance is central to sustainable growth. Prestige products are witnessing strong demand. Fueled by rising income

levels, a high savings rate, changing lifestyles and a relatively young population, domestic demand should remain buoyant over the long term.

国内消费对推动该国的GDP作用越来越明显。在全球充满不确定性与市场波动的情况下,这种自力更生的状态是保持国内经济增长的强有力支撑。Prestige见证了这一需求的有效增长。在收入水平上升，高储蓄率，生活方式改变以及人口结构年轻化的驱动下，国内需求将保持健康的长期发展。

Public investment in infrastructure and private capital expenditure are also expanding to accommodate growing demand. The government is expected to spend more than US$200 billion in the next five years on infrastructure, while capital spending in the corporate sector should also continue to rise. The ratio of gross fixed capital formation to GDP is lower than China’s, for example, providing plenty of upside potential.

基础设施中的公共投资和私人资本支出范围还在扩大，以满足日益增长的国内需求。在未来5年的基础设施建设中，政府预计将耗资超过2000亿美元，而企业部门的资本支出也在持续上升。其固定资产形成总额对GDP的贡献率低于中国，这为投资提供了许多潜力。

Global outsourcing has succeeded primarily due to India’s skilled, English-speaking employee base and low labor costs. The outsourcing trend is now spreading from domestic technology and related services to automobile suppliers, health care and telecom. India’s scope for growth in these areas is substantial, considering that services account for 78% of the U.S. economy. Infosys Technologies, an information technology services firm, is the leader in this field. However, outsourcing and other exports (both goods and services) account for a relatively small part of India’s economic growth. India has one of the lowest export-to-GDP ratios in Asia, underscoring the country’s low dependence on potentially volatile external factors.

全球外包得以成功的主要原因是印度拥有熟练的英语雇员和较低的劳动力成本。外包趋势正在蔓延，从产品技术到相关服务，汽车供应商、医疗保健和电信。由于第三产业占美国经济的78%，印度在这些领域的增长余地也相当可观。Infosys Technologies是在信息技术服务领域的领军人物。然而，外包和其他出口产品(包括货物和服务)占印度的经济增长相当小的一部分。印度是亚洲出口对国内生产总值比例最低的国家，这凸显了其受外部潜在不稳定因素的弱影响性。

All these factors have helped a number of Indian companies with good fundamentals to rapidly expand their top and bottom lines. Some success stories from the past decade include ABB (construction), HDFC (housing finance), Kotak Mahindra Bank (banking) and Bharti Airtel (telecommunications).

所有这些因素都有助于一些印度公司迅速扩张。在过去的十年中，一些成功的案例包括ABB 集团(建筑)，HDFC(住房资金)，Kotak Mahindr银行(银行)，Bharti Airtel(电信)等公司。

Indian companies remain fundamentally strong, with increasing productivity and utilization rates contributing to healthy balance sheets. Such companies could particularly benefit if India’s economy grows at a high sustainable pace in the medium to long term, as we believe it will.

Additional removal of structural barriers and improvements in the economic environment could help unlock further value. Supported by strong domestic growth, corporate earnings growth should be in the range of 12%-15% over the next three to five years, assuming annual GDP growth of approximately 7%-8%.

生产率和使用率的提高、健康的资产负债表等都表明了印度公司基本上仍保持强劲增长。如果印度的经济正如我们预期那样，在中长期持续高速稳定增长，将对此类公司极为有利。进一步清除体制障碍、改善经济环境将有助于发掘其内在价值。假设每年GDP增长约7%—8%，依靠国内经济的强劲增长，在未来三至五年，预计企业盈利增长应在12%—15%左右。

Fixed income: Spike in long bond yields may provide some openings

固定收益：投资长期债券时机成熟

The last few weeks have seen a backup in bond market yields. With the expectation that the Federal Reserve Board will not be cutting interest rates any time soon, widespread selling took place. Investors sold longer-duration securities as they became more defensive, and mortgage investors sold U.S. Treasuries to hedge their portfolios against rising interest rates, further pressuring the market.

在过去几周里，我们可以看到债券市场获得较大的支撑。由于预期美联储在短期内不会减息，于是出现大量的债券抛售现象。投资者卖出较长期限的证券以提高自身资产的安全性，而抵押投资者则出售美国国库券，以对冲利率上升对他们投资组合的影响，从而进一步打压市场。

The recent volatility has created some unease, but it can also create opportunity. Especially compared to this point last year, when the market was pricing in a rate hike, we see the U.S. Treasury yield curve as representing fair-to-slightly good value currently.

短期波动可能引起了一些不安，但同时也创造了投资机会。尤其是相对于去年此时，当市场定价处于利率上扬，美国国库券收益率曲线却表现良好。

We were not surprised that the Fed made clear its intentions to keep the Fed funds rate at 5.25%. Even two months ago, when rate cut expectations were widespread, we believed that the Fed would remain on hold for the balance of this year. And we continue to feel that way—especially if you look at some of the recent economic data. May CPI data dropped to 2.2% year-over-year from last September’s peak of 2.9%. That is a very real improvement, and the trend is definitely heading in the right direction.

对于美联储将联邦基金利率维持在5.25%的意图公诸于众后，我们并不觉得奇怪。即使在两个月前，当减息的预期广为流传时，我们仍相信美联储会将此利率持续到年底。特别是参考了最近的一些经济数据后，使我们更坚信这种观点。5月份CPI指数从去年9月的峰值2.9%下降到了今年的2.2%。这是一个非常实际的改善，而且目前的趋势正朝着良好的方向前发展。

As for the economy as a whole, our outlook is that the overall U.S. employment market will remain relatively constructive. We think this will be the key to consumer spending and the overall economy. Employment is also the key to inflation. As a services-oriented economy, the U.S. incurs inflation mostly as a result of labor inflation.

由于经济的整体性，我们认为美国就业市场仍将保持发展潜力。这对消费支出及整体经济增长是很关键的，对通货膨胀也影响深远。作为一个以服务业为主的经济体，美国的通货膨胀主要是由劳动力价格上升引起的。

Our sense is that overall economic growth will likely moderate from last year, but we think the likelihood of a recession is relatively low. Corporate fundamentals remain strong, and ?inflation should remain relatively contained—although, once again, the labor markets are the key. With long-term interest rates rising well above 5%, we are starting to see many opportunities open up in fixed income markets.

在我们看来，从去年起经济增长可能会放缓。但是，我们也认为由此而造成经济衰退的可能性相对较低。企业增长的基本面仍然强劲，而通货膨胀也应当囊括其中——这也再次表明了美国劳动力市场的发展仍是关键。随着长期利率上升已远超过5%，我们能看到许多投资机会正在固定收益市场显现。

Global opportunities abound

充裕的全球发展机会

Recently, bond yields have backed up on a global basis. The move was triggered, in part, by the European Central Bank’s June 6 rate hike of 25 basis points to a base rate of 4%, along with signals the bank may not be done tightening. Bond yields have gone up in the medium to long end as well. The German Bund 10-year climbed 24 basis points in the first two weeks of June.

近期,债券收益率在全球基准利率上获得了支撑。这是由于欧洲央行6月6日调高最优惠贷款利率25个基点至基准利率4%，并发出未必实行紧缩货币政策的信号。债券收益率的中长期水平也有所增长，10年期的德国债券在6月的前两个星期已攀升了24个基点。

Throughout the last several months, we have anticipated robust global growth reports and expected interest rates to go higher. Accordingly, within our global bond strategies we have refrained from taking much interest rate risk except in a few local markets where specific interest rate cycles are creating yield opportunities.

在过去的几个月中，我们发布全球经济预期增长报告，并预期利率将会更高。因此，在我们的全球债券投资策略中，除了在少数特殊的利率周期能创造收益机会的本地市场，我们都尽量避免采取有较大利率风险的投资。

The market is now agreeing with our view that global rates will rise, and that a short-duration exposure is appropriate where yields do not compensate for adding risk. Our currency positioning

also reflects this view. We are overweighted in the currencies of countries with strong growth fundamentals and where we feel currency appreciation is a natural consequence of such growth.

市场与我们的看法一致，也认为全球利率将上升，而由于收益并不能补偿附加风险，因而短期贷款期限的制定也是合理的。我们目前的外汇配置也反映了这种看法。我们看好那些有着雄厚基础设施建设国家的货币，并且认为，货币升值在这种增长形势下是一个必然过程。

Mutual Series: European Equities Still Looking Good

共同基金：依旧看好欧洲股票

May was a particularly strong month for European equities, mostly driven by good economic data, better-than-expected corporate earnings and continuing merger and acquisition activity across a number of sectors. Looking ahead, it seems to us that the fundamental investment case for European equities, although less attractive than before, has not yet reached dangerous territory.

欧洲股票在5月表现强劲，主要原因在于其有良好的经济数据支撑、企业盈利预期较佳以及横跨多个行业的持续并购活动。展望未来，在我们看来，基础设施建设投资对欧洲股票虽然吸引力不如以前，但还仍在可投资的范围。

Valuations are still within reason—at least when compared to U.S. equity markets— consensus earnings forecasts appear achievable in the absence of material further appreciation of the euro, and the interest rate environment remains historically benign despite the recent rise in bond yields. Corporate balance sheets are being managed conservatively, leaving open the possibility of releveraging, as well as returning excess capital to shareholders through enhanced dividends and share buybacks.

其估值仍然在合理范围内——至少相比美国股市而言——尽管最近债券收益在上升，欧元的进一步升值也未能实现，但利率环境仍保持良好的发展势头，并能达成统一的盈利预测。企业资产负债表管理保守，以便留有杠杆运作的余地，通过股东分红和回购股份返回剩余资金。

In addition, a helpful feature of European stock markets for value-oriented investors is the current high rate of valuation dispersion among companies, even within a particular sector. Some companies, particularly those in the small- to mid-sized universe, are on the whole fairly to fully valued, while others have remained at attractive valuation levels on either a multiple of cash flow or a discount to their intrinsic value basis.

另外，欧洲股市对价值投资者来说有利的特点是，当前估值较高的股票分散于各公司，即使是处于同一行业。有些公司，尤其是那些中小型企业，得到了充高度重视，而其它一些企业却仍处于待估状态，后者希望通过其多元的现金流或是被低估的内在价值而获取投资者们的青睐。

In this respect, the current wave of corporate restructuring in the region constitutes fertile ground for our new investments search and a powerful catalyst for existing ones.

从这一点看来，这批公司重组为我们这些新投资者搜寻优质投资对象，或促进现有投资者的投资动力，都提供了大量的推动力。

Chart 2: European Price to Book Value Still Cheap to U.S.

Chart 3: Larger Caps in Europe Now at a Discount to Small Caps

* A subfund of Franklin Templeton Investment Funds, a Luxembourg-registered SICAV.

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