经济学人

[2010.04.08] Protection racket 保护的喧闹

Eating lots of fruit and vegetables may not help stave off cancer, after all

终究，吃大量的水果和蔬菜并不能避免癌症

Apr 8th 2010 | From The Economist print edition

FOR snivelling children and recalcitrant carnivores, requests that they should eat five portions of fruit and vegetables every day have mostly fallen on deaf ears. But those who did comply with official advice from charities, governments and even the mighty World Health Organisation (WHO), could remind themselves, rather smugly, that the extra greens they forced down at lunchtime would greatly reduce their chances of getting cancer. Until now, that is. Because a group of researchers led by Paolo Boffetta, of the Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York, have conducted a new study into the link between cancer and the consumption of fruit and vegetables, and found it to be far weaker than anyone had thought.

对于哭哭啼啼的小孩和顽固的肉食主义者，每天吃五种不同的蔬菜和水果的要求他们基本上会当做耳旁风。但是那些遵循慈善团体、政府、甚至是权威的WHO的官方建议的人会沾沾自喜的提醒自己午饭时候硬塞进去的绿色食品会极大的减少患癌症的几率。到现在为止，确实如此。因为由纽约西奈山医学院的Paolo Boffetta带领的一组研究人员进行了一个癌症与蔬菜和水果的消费之间关系的研究，并且发现这个关系要比想象得弱得多。

In the past, veggie-associated reductions of cancer-risk rates as high as 50% had been reported. But it appears that some of these early investigations may have been biased by the use of “case-control” studies. Such studies try to identify the factors contributing to cancer by comparing people who have the disease with those who do not, but are otherwise similar. The problem is that they can easily be biased if researchers do not adequately establish that the two groups being compared are, indeed, otherwise similar. Walter Willet, at the Harvard School of Public Health, says it appears that earlier investigations were more likely to use health-conscious people as their controls. These types of people are, unsurprisingly, more likely to agree to be interviewed about their health than slobby couch potatoes.

过去曾有过蔬菜能够减少高达50%的癌症发病率的报道。但是现在看来先前许多的研究都用了“病例对照”而产生了偏见。这一类研究通过对比其它条件相似的癌症患者和健康人试图明确是什么因素导致了癌症。问题是如果研究人员没有适当地建立两个组，也就是其它因素都相似，研究很容易产生偏见。哈佛公共卫生学院的Walter Willet说，以前的研究似乎都喜欢用有健康意识的人来作为对照组。毫不意外，这类人比那些懒在沙发里面吃薯片的人更喜欢坐健康的研究。

Dr Boffetta and his colleagues have therefore carried out a different kind of study, known as prospective cohort study, which they report in theJournal of the National Cancer Institute. Their work follows a group of individuals over time and looks at how different factors contribute to different outcomes—in this case, the development of cancer. Analysis of dietary data from almost 500,000 people in Europe found only a weak association between high fruit and vegetable intake and reduced overall cancer risk.

因此Boffetta博士和同事进行了另一种类型的研究，被称作是前瞻性群体研究，发表在

《美国癌症学会杂志》上面。他们在一段时间内跟踪一组个体并观察不同的因素导致了什么样的不同结果——在这个研究中，就是癌症的发生。欧洲将近500,000人中的饮食数据分析发现大量的蔬菜和水果的摄入与所有的癌症患病率之间的关系非常小。

Green with envy

充满嫉妒

According to Susan Jebb, of the British Medical Research Council’s Collaborative Centre for Human Nutrition Research in Cambridge, the new study suggests that if Europeans increased their consumption of fruit and vegetables by 150g a day (about two servings, or 40% of the WHO’s recommended daily allowance), it would result in a decrease of just 2.6% in the rate of cancers in men and 2.3% in women. Even those who eat virtually no fruit and vegetables, the paper suggests, are only 9% more likely to develop cancer than those who stick to the WHO recommendations. 来自英国医学研究会的剑桥人类营养研究合作中心的Susan Jebb说，新的研究表明如果欧洲人每天增加150g的蔬菜和水果的摄入量（大约每日两次，或者是WHO推荐摄入量的40%）, 这将只会降低男性2.6%、女性2.3%的肿瘤发生率。研究显示即使是那些几乎没有蔬菜和水果摄入的人，他们的癌症发生率比坚持按照WHO推荐摄入量的人仅仅高出9%。

On the face of it, that is quite a blow to the smug salad eaters, and the health lobby’s spin-doctors were out in force in the wake of the paper’s publication, to play down its conclusions. Before racing to the food-recycling bin with the contents of an ageing fruit bowl, they pointed out, there are a number of other factors that nutritionists would urge that you consider.

从表面看来，这无疑是对沾沾自喜的沙拉坚守者的巨大打击，而且这篇文章发表以后倡导健康生活的医生们失去了自己以前说服病人的有力证据，他们闭口不谈这篇文章的重要性。营养专家指出，别急着把你一直伴随你的水果盘里面的水果扔到垃圾桶里，还有很多其它的因素需要你考虑。

One is that this kind of study has attempted to adjust for every possible factor that might contribute to the relationship, and isolate only the contribution that fruit and vegetables make. This means that if people who turn away from fruit and vegetables end up eating more processed meats or foods high in fat instead, they probably will increase their cancer risk, even though the direct cause is not the consumption of less fruit and veg.

其中一个因素是这一类型的研究试图调节好在这个关系中的每一个因子，于是孤立了蔬菜和水果在其中所起到的作用。这意味着如果把吃蔬菜和水果转而变成吃更多的精细肉类和其他高脂食物，会增加癌症的发病率，即便直接的原因并不是蔬菜和水果的摄入过少。More importantly, there is still good evidence that fruit and vegetables protect against heart disease and strokes by reducing blood pressure. A separate investigation of the people involved in Dr Boffetta’s study suggests that those who eat five servings a day of fruit and vegetables have a 30% lower incidence of heart disease and strokes than those who eat less than one and a half servings. It is also possible that some specific foods, such as tomatoes, broccoli and other cruciferous vegetables, do offer protective effects against particular kinds of cancer.

更重要的是，依然有很充分的证据说明蔬菜和水果的降压作用可以预防心脏病和中风。Boffetta博士一项独立的研究表明每天吃五份水果和蔬菜的人比每天只吃一份半蔬菜和水果的人心脏病和中风的发病率要低30%。而且某些特定的食物，比如番茄、西兰花和萝卜等蔬菜，对特定的癌症还是有预防作用的。

As a consequence, the best advice is probably still to eat your five a day. But for snivelling children and recalcitrant carnivores the fleeting thought that you might not have to was nice while it lasted.

因而，最好的建议是依然坚持每天吃五份蔬菜和水果。但是对于哭哭啼啼的小孩和顽固的肉食主义者，改变他们的想法让它一瞬即逝好了。

[2009.10.29] The unrepentant chocolatier 不思悔改的巧克力制造商

Oct 29th 2009 | LAUSANNE AND VEVEY

From The Economist print edition

The world’s biggest food company is betting on an emerging class of health and nutrition products to spur its growth. But risks abound

世界头号食品公司将宝压在健康营养产品，借助这些产品的发展以促进公司壮大。然而，危机四伏

IT IS a curious blend of kitchen and laboratory. From one room wafts the bittersweet smell of chocolate being gently heated and stirred by chocolatiers. Around the corner it is all science. A double row of cubicles contains human guinea pigs who sniff and taste from little tubs, scoring each on criteria such as sweetness or bitterness to produce complex flavour charts. Down the corridor, women in comfortable chairs talk about how chocolate makes them feel. Cameras and microphones record their most minute gestures for the scrutiny of psychologists and anthropologists

这种厨房与实验室的结合着实新奇。制造商将巧克力微微加热，使其散发出甜中带苦的口味。事情虽小确是科学。两排小隔间的实验对象嗅闻、品尝小盒中的食物，并根据甜、苦等标准打分，制造商据此创造复杂的口味系列。穿过走廊，很多女士坐在舒服的座椅上，描述吃巧克力的感觉。她们每一个细微的动作都被摄像机和麦克风记录下来，稍后心理学家和人类学家将对这些数据进行仔细分析。

This is the science behind Nestlé’s 110-year-old chocolate factory next door, which each morning exhales the aroma of roasting almonds and cocoa beans over Broc, a

chocolate-box-perfect Swiss village where even the weeds in an overgrown lot seem orderly. It is in these laboratories, where a pinch of art is mixed with SFr25m ($23.6m) of technology, that new chocolate recipes are devised. At a nother Nestlé research centre in Lausanne, meanwhile, researchers have been working out how chocolate affects metabolism and the behaviour of gut microbes—in other words, analysing chocolate as a pharmaceutical product, rather than a treat

这就是雀巢110年巧克力工厂的科学之道。每天早上布罗克村都飘散出烘烤杏仁和可可豆的芳香气息。布罗克是瑞士的巧克力之乡。在这，即使是空地上蔓延生长的杂草似乎也井然有序。就是在这些实验室里诞生了新的巧克力配方。（也是在这里有少数艺术与身价2500万瑞士法郎约合2360万英镑的技术相结合）。与此同时，在雀巢的另一家研发中心洛桑市，研究者们一致在研究巧克力如何影响新陈代谢和肠道微生物行为。换言之，把巧克力当做药物来分析，而不是食品。

Investment in this kind of research may seem indulgent, particularly in a recession. But it exemplifies Nestlé’s strategy for future growth. Although the company is best known for chocolate, ice-cream and sugary snacks, Peter Brabeck-Letmathe, the firm’s chairman, and Paul Bulcke, its chief executive, hope to transform the food company into the world’s leading health, nutrition and “wellness” firm. It is tempting to dismiss this as a mere marketing stunt—an effort to make people feel better about eating things they really shouldn’t. Yet there is a sound commerc ial logic behind Nestlé’s shift towards health and nutrition.

在这种研究上投入资金似乎是败家之举，尤其是在经济萧条时期。然而，这是雀巢为促进未来成长的战略缩影。虽然雀巢是以巧克力、冰激凌、甜食著称，但是董事长Peter Brabeck-Letmathe和执行官Paul Bulcke希望把公司从食品企业转为世界顶级保健、营养和“健康”公司。人们很容易将此举理解为营销的愚蠢行为（努力让消费者觉得吃不应该吃的食品没什么大不了的）。然而，在雀巢转型成为保健、营养型公司的背后有一套行之有效的商业逻辑

Sales of foodstuffs that have been intentionally modified and improved by manufacturers to provide claimed health benefits—known as “functional foods”—are, in many cases, growing far more quickly than foods sales as a whole. Sales of functional foods in western Europe grew by 10.2% a year between 2004 and 2007, whereas sales of packaged food grew by 6.3% a year over that period (see chart 1), according to Euromonitor, a market-research firm. Some categories are growing even faster. In America, sales of functional foods that promote “gut health”, for example, grew by an average of 15.8% a year between 2002 and 2007, according to a recent PricewaterhouseCoopers report, compared with overall food-sales growth of 2.9% a year, according to Datamonitor (see chart 2). The PricewaterhouseCoopers report predicts that the global market for functional foods will grow in value from $78 billion in 2007 to $128 billion in 2013.

“功能性食品”即经过制造商刻意修改和改进、宣传有益健康的食物。这类食品的销售额在大部分情况下增速远远快于其他食品的整体销售增速。市场调研公司欧睿的调查显示，功能性食品在西欧的销售额在2004至2007年期间保持着每年10.2%的增速，而包装类食品在同期的增速为每年6.3%（见图一）。有些种类的增速甚至更快。例如，普华永道最近的一份报告显示，促进“肠道健康”的功能性食品在美销售额在2002年至2007年的年平均增速为15.8%，而欧睿的调查显示同期美国食品的总体销售额增速只有2.9%。普华永道在报告中还预测功能性食品的全球市场将从2007年的78亿美元扩大到2013年的1280亿美元。

Looking further ahead, Nestlé sees great potential in the idea of “personalised” nutrition. Just as drugs companies have long talked of devising drugs that take account of genetic variations between people, the firm wants to do the same with food. That is why it is investing in the nascent fields of metabolomics and proteomics with the aim of providing foods, diets, devices and even services for particular subgroups of the population. It forecasts that by 2017, global sales of nutrition for “specific need states” could reach $100 billion. Existing examples include Musashi whey-protein supplements and PowerBar snacks for athletes; Sondalis and Nutren Glytrol liquid diets for diabetics; and Optifast powders and shakes for dieters.

雀巢看到在未来“个性化”营养的潜力巨大，医药公司一直在谈论的、根据个体基因的不同改造药物的做法，而雀巢打算在食物上采也取同样做法。这就是该公司在代谢学和蛋白质组学的新生领域投资的原因，其目的在于通过这项研究，雀巢能够为特定人群提供特定的食物、节食食品、器具甚至是特定的服务。该公司预计到2017年，能够达到“特定需求状态”的营养食品的销量将达到1000亿美元。目前这类食品包括Musashi乳清蛋白补充剂、运动员专用PowerBar点心、糖尿病人专用的Sondalis 和 Nutren Glytrol流食以及为节食人群设计的Optifast牌奶粉和奶昔。

Switching to a new diet

转做新型食品

This shift in emphasis towards health and nutrition will, Nestlé hopes, transform it from a purveyor of low-margin, commoditised foodstuffs into a provider of high-margin products and services. (It already owns Jenny Craig, a chain of American weight-loss centres, which it is now expanding globally.) The firm needs new sources of growth. Sales of bottled water, which are about 10% of its business, are falling in rich countries because of the recession. They may yet bounce back, but analysts fret that bottled water, which is now firmly in the sights of environmental groups, may go the way of the fur trade.

雀巢希望通过这次重点向保健和营养的方向转型能够把公司从一个售卖利低廉食品的公司转型为高利润产品和服务的供应商。（雀巢已经将美国减肥中心Jenny Craig收归旗下，该

公司目前正在全球扩张。）雀巢需要新的增长点。瓶装水的销量目前占整个销售业务的１０％，但是由于经济衰退这一数字在发达国家正在下降。销售额可能会回升，但是分析人士担心由于瓶装水现在被环保组织紧紧盯上了，最后可能会重蹈裘皮贸易的覆辙。

Nestlé also seems to be losing market share in other products, though company officials dispute the assertion. Pablo Zuanic, an analyst at JPMorgan, reckons that in the second quarter of 2009, 44% of Ne stlé’s product lines lost market share in America, and none of its products gained market share there, according to surveys of retail-data by ACNielsen, a market-research firm. Scepticism about Nestlé’s prospects can also been seen in its share price: its shares trade at a lower multiple of earnings than those of its main European competitors. One reason is that investors are concerned that it may invest some or all of the SFr30 billion it is likely to receive next year from selling its share in Alcon, an eye-care firm, in businesses that are less profitable than the ones it already has.

似乎雀巢其他产品的市场份额页在下降，虽然公司高管对此予以否认。摩根大通的分析师Pablo Zuanic表示，根据市场调研公司ACNielsen,的零售数据显示２００９年二季度４４％的雀巢产品线在美国的市场占有率下降，所有产品的市场占有量无一上升。人们对雀巢未来的担忧在股价上便可见一斑：股票盈利低于其主要欧洲竞争对手数倍。原因之一是投资者担心明年雀巢可能将抛售Alcon公司（眼部护理公司）的股份收益（３００亿瑞士法郎）部分或全部投资到比目前利润更低的业务上。

Investors are also worried that Nestlé has become too large and unwieldy. The firm has 30 product lines that each generate more than SFr1 billion in annual sales, from Nescafé coffee and Nesquik m ilk to Purina pet food and Pure Life, a bottled water that is sometimes made from stuff that comes out of taps, rather than out of the ground. Consumers have been trading down to cheaper, unbranded foods in recent years, a trend that accelerated in the recession, potentially undermining the value of owning big brands.

投资者还担心雀巢已经变得过于巨大而笨重不堪。该公司目前有２０条生产线，每条生产线每年的销售额都在１０亿瑞士法郎之上。其中包括雀巢咖啡、雀巢巧伴伴、Purina宠物食品和纯净生命（有时用自来水而非地下水灌装的瓶装水）。几年来，消费者开始减少消费，购买价格更加低廉，无品牌的食品。这一趋势由于经济衰退而愈演愈烈，导致大品牌的价值悄然缩水。

So the company has seized upon evidence that incorporating healthier ingredients into its products could help it get its sales moving in rich countries again, and win over hearts and minds in emerging markets, too. These ingredients include live bacteria in yogurt, extra calcium of a form that is more easily absorbed by children’s bodies, and sterols (a kind of plant fat) that reduce blood cholesterol.

所以雀巢指望在产品中添加保健成分能够帮助该公司在发达国家的销量能够再次上升，同时赢得新兴市场消费者的青睐。这些保健成分包括酸奶益生菌、儿童更易吸收的钙以及降低血

液胆固醇的固醇（一种植物脂肪）

A study by Harvard Business School found that between 2004 and 2007, sales of Nestlé’s products containing such “functional” ingredients increased by 23.7% a year, compared with growth of 6.2% a year for its ordinary foods. Sales of Nestlé’s functional foods grew by 20% in 2008. And on October 22nd the company announced that in the difficult year to September 2009, in which the underlying growth rate (stripping out price changes and currency movements) across its food and beverage product lines was 0.7%, functional foods still managed to eke out growth of 4%.

哈佛商学院的研究显示2004年到2007年期间雀巢公司旗下产品含有“功能性”成分的产品销量的年增长率为23.7%，而普通食品的增长率只有6.2%。2008年功能食品的增长率为20%。10月22日雀巢公司宣布从经济危机开始到2009年9月该公司所有食品和饮料生产线的实际增长率（除去价格变动和资本流通因素）为0.7%，而功能食品仍然实现了4%的增长率。

Other companies are benefiting from the same trend. Results released on September 23rd by Danone, a French diary and yogurt company, showed that its bestselling yogurts are those with live bacteria that are said to strengthen immunity or ease constipation. Even drugs companies are eyeing this new market. In March the chairman of Sanofi-Aventis, a French drug firm, mused about acquiring food and nutrition firms as a way to pursue growth.

其他公司也从这一趋势中受益。法国乳品和酸奶公司Danone于9月23日发布的结果显示含有益生菌能够增强免疫力或缓解便秘的酸奶最畅销。甚至连医药公司都盯上了这块新市场。法国医药公司Sanofi-Aventis的总裁三月份曾表示意欲兼并食品和营养企业以促进公司增长

。

Few companies, however, are spending the sort of money that Nestlé is to develop foods that are tailored to improve health. Even so, Mr Brabeck-Letmathe’s grand plan to reinvent his company must navigate several dangers. Does it make sense to invest in costly, long-term research for a market that may not materialise? Another risk is that a sceptical public will not be convinced by Nestlé’s grand health claims, prompting a backlash强烈反对集体反对 from the public or activists. There is also a danger that the new strategy might damage the firm’s blockbuster已经成功的 legacy brands, such as Nescafé, which have taken decades to build.

然而，鲜有公司效仿雀巢的做法投资开发能够改善健康的食品。尽管如此，Brabeck-Letmathe 先生重新打造公司的庞大计划也存在着诸多危险因素。耗费巨资长期研究一个可能不会成型的市场是否有意义？另一个危险因素是雀巢产品保健功效的宣传可能无法打消公众的疑虑，反而招致公众或激进分子的强烈反对。新战略可能对也已成功的传统品牌造成损害，例如雀巢咖啡，这个牌子耗费了数十年才建立起来。

Profit or peril?

利润还是危险？

Start with the cost of research. If Nestlé were content to battle it out with Kraft, the world’s second-largest food firm, in the business of just selling food, then its outlay on research and development (R&D) would be difficult to justify. But Mr Brabeck-Letmathe saw a decade ago that the food industry was becoming a commoditised grind with diminishing margins and little scope for disruptive innovation. So he began pushing Nestlé to develop functional foods with higher profit margins, and he increased spending accordingly. In 2008 Nestlé spent just under SFr2 billion on R&D, a sum that has more than doubled since 1998. At about 2% of sales, this is considerably more than rivals are spending: in 2007 Danone spent about 1% of its sales on R&D, and Kraft spent about 1.2%.

首先是研究费用。如果雀巢满足于和卡夫（世界第二大食品公司）在产品销售领域的竞争，则该公司的研究费用难以估算。但是早在十年前Brabeck-Letmathe先生就意识到食品行业的利润在下降，产品创新的空间有限。所以，他开始将公司转向生产利润丰厚的功能食品，并相应增加其相关投入。雀巢2008年的研究费用为将近20亿瑞士法郎，这一数字是1998年以来的2倍，大约是销售额的2%，相对于竞争对手来说，这个数字相当可观：Danone2007年的研究费用为其销售额的1%，卡夫大概是1.2%。

Richard Laube, the head of Nestlé’s nutrition business and a former pharmaceuticals executive, describes a “pipeline” of some 75 research p rojects. Borrowing terminology from the drugs industry seems appropriate, given the time required to develop these new products. Unlike the quick development cycles usually seen in fast-moving consumer goods, which typically take one to two years, products in Nestlé’s nutrition pipeline may take four to six years to develop.

之前是医药公司执行官，现在雀巢营养业务的负责人的Richard Laube对大约75个研究项目“渠道”进行了描述。考虑到开发这些产品的时间，从医药行业借用专业术语似无不妥。与快速消费品的研发周期只有1至2年不同，雀巢营养渠道产品可能需要4至6年方可成功。

Mr Laube acknowledges that the pursuit of functional foods means that R&D expenditure must go up, not least because regulators on both sides of the Atlantic are taking a tougher line towards them. In October, America’s Food and Drug Administration warned that it was reviewing health claims made by food companies; it plans to announce stricter guidelines soon. The European Commission has forged ahead with strict rules on nutrition claims, and is in the process of tightening up the claims allowed on health grounds too. Companies wishing to make claims related to disease (“reduces blood pressure”, “cuts risk of heart attacks”, and so on) will have to provide solid scientific evidence to back them up. That takes time and money.

Laube先生表示研发功能食品意味着必须增加研究费用，很大程度上时因为欧美两边的管理者都对功能食品实施更加严格的规定。美国食品药品监督局10月份发出警告，该组织正在检查食品公司的保健功效是否属实，并计划很快出台更加严格的指导方针。欧洲委员会已经

先行一步，制订了严格条例，规范营养功效的真实性。该委员会正着手采取更加严格的规定。对于与疾病有关的功效必须提出确凿的科学依据予以支持，既耗时间又耗经费。

But it will be worthwhile if consumers prove willing, as they seem to be, to pay more for products with health benefits. Another benefit to such long-term research, observes Mr Laube, is that it tends to produce the sorts of innovations that pay dividends for longer than the minor, fleeting improvements made to consumer goods. He points to the formulas for whey protein, used in Nestlé’s PowerBar r ange, and for hypoallergenic baby food. In both cases consumers continue to pay premium prices for these products a decade after their initial introduction.

如果消费者愿意（消费者似乎愿意）花更多钱购买具有健康功效的产品，则之前的努力便是值得的。Laube认为这种长期研究的另一个好处是更容易产生长期红利的创新科技，并完善了消费者产品。他指的是用于雀巢PowerBar系列和低过敏性婴儿食品的乳清蛋白。在以上两种情况下，消费者在产品打入市场10年之后仍然愿意继续花费高额费用购买这些产品。

Nestlé is used to playing a long game. Take Nespresso, an almost instant espresso that is made by machine from a little capsule of coffee. Nestlé started working on the technology in 1970 and filed its first patent in 1976. It was another decade before it was ready to start selling Nespresso pods and machines. Thereafter the business lost money for a decade. But now it is one of Nestlé’s fastest-growing products. Sales have been increasing by 30% a year (even though Nespresso is a premium brand) and are expected to reach nearly SFr3 billion this year. Consumers are, presumably, making coffee at home and trading down from more expensive coffees sold by the likes of Starbucks. “It took off very, very slowly,” says Mr Bulcke. “It was 20 years of conviction that got us there.”

雀巢惯常打持久战。以机器加工成小袋的雀巢速溶咖啡为例。这项技术始于1970年并于1976年申请了第一个专利。而开始销售这种速溶咖啡和和机器又花费了十年的时间。此后，这项业务一直处于亏损状态长达10年之久，然而现在却是雀巢增长速度最快的业务之一。销售额的年增速在30%。（虽然速溶咖啡是较高端的品品牌）。今年的销售额有望达到将近30亿瑞士法郎。消费者很可能在家自制咖啡，像星巴克这种的昂贵咖啡销量便走下坡路了。“这一过程相当缓慢，大概要花费20年时间，才能看到效果。” Bulcke先生如是说。

The tigh ter regulatory outlook for functional foods could, in fact, benefit Nestlé because few of its rivals have the deep pockets necessary to invest in such research. The Swiss firm could end up in a strong position—provided, that is, it can develop functional f oods with genuine benefits that consumers are willing to pay for. “The more science wins, the stronger Nestlé’s position,” reckons Peter Killing of IMD, a Swiss business school.

功能食品的规定越来越严格，这样的监管前景对于雀巢实际上是有利的。因为鲜有竞争对手有如此雄厚的经济实力进行这种研究。而雀巢这家瑞士公司最后很可能占据市场高位，只要其生产的功能真的有效，消费者买张即可。“科技月发达，雀巢的地位越稳固”瑞士商学院

发展学院的Peter Killing如是说。

Another risk to Nestlé’s strategy is that of overreach, arising from two particular vulnerabilities. One is the legacy of the firm’s past scandals involving the sale of milk powder in poor countries, which led to painful boycotts. The other involves the food industry’s experience of a backlash against genetically modified (GM) crops.

雀巢战略的另一个潜在风险是过度扩张的危险，源于两个致命的弱势：一个是公司过往丑闻造成不良影响。其中包括在穷国销售奶粉导致当地居民联合抵制，造成的影响颇著。另一个问题是民众对转基因食物的抵触。

“Breastfeeding is best! We will salute and say this every day, but the world won’t believe us,” laments Mr Laube, describing the lingering suspicions harboured by some about the company’s behaviour in the developing world. The firm’s founder developed its trademark milk substitute not to replace mother’s milk, which health experts agree is the best food for babies, but to feed only those newborns who cannot be breast-fed safely. This is not company propaganda: the World Health Organisation confirms that “there will always be a small number of infants who have to be fed on breast-milk substitutes.” But the firm was caught in Africa and elsewhere promoting its milk powders so aggressively that t hey did, in fact, replace mother’s milk inappropriately—hurting the health of babies and, when the powder was mixed with unsafe water or in too weak a dose, leading to malnourishment or death. The firm insists it has mended its ways.

Laube先生在描述公司在发展中国家的不良作为而遗留的长期不信任时悲叹道：“母乳喂养是最理想的。我们每天都在宣传这个。但是没人相信我们。”雀巢研制的母乳替代奶粉并非意欲替代母乳。母乳是健康专家公认的喂养儿童最好的食品。只有那些母乳喂养导致危险的儿童才需要母乳替代奶粉。“有一部分婴儿不能母乳喂养，只能和母乳替代奶”这是世界卫生组织证实的事实，并非雀巢的宣传噱头。但是在非洲和其他地方，雀巢销售奶粉的力度过大，实际上取代了母乳的地位，有损儿童健康。当用不安全的水冲奶粉或剂量太少将导致婴儿营养不良或死亡。雀巢表示已经在尽力补救了。

Nestlé’s d eep reach in the developing world goes back decades and gives it a head start over most of its rich-world competitors when it comes to exploiting growth. Its early embrace of globalisation had less to do with planning than with the coincidence of being based in a small country and selling a highly tradable commodity. As early as 1919 Nestlé’s condensed-milk business had exhausted the supply of milk from local farmers, forcing it to open factories in Australia, England, Germany and Norway. Soon afterwards it bought the leading 27 condensed-milk factories in America, prompting this newspaper to note that year that Nestlé “is no longer a Swiss milk company; it is a very powerful international investment trust.”

雀巢在发展中国家的深厚基础源自几十年前。该公司在起跑线上就领先于大多数发达国家的

竞争对手。雀巢早期融入全球化并非计划使然，而是出于巧合：恰巧在一个小国家，售卖相当受欢迎的商品。早在1919年，雀巢浓缩奶百年消耗了本国农民生产的所有牛奶。迫于情势，雀巢在澳大利亚、英国、德国、挪威建立了分厂。此后不久，又并购了美国27家浓缩奶工厂。这不禁让本报想起当年雀巢“不再是瑞士的奶业公司”；而是一个强大的国际投资信托公司。

Today less than 2% of Nestlé’s sales are in its home market, compared with 60% of Kraft’s. Enforced globalisation taught Nestlé far earlier than its rivals just how markedly tastes differ across the world. Its trademark line of Nescafé instant coffees, for instance, comes in a bewildering array of more than 500 flavours. The legacy of its powdered-mil k scandals, however, is that Nestlé actions in poor countries are scrutinised like those of few others. That means any grand new effort to rebrand the firm’s offerings as “healthy” will face scepticism, in emerging markets in particular.

今日的销售额只占总额的不到2%，而华夫则为60%。强大的全球化早早教会了雀巢研制独特口味方可行销世界的道理。其他竞争对手则后知后觉。例如雀巢速溶咖啡的产品线有多个繁杂的系列，500多个不同的口味。然而，奶粉丑闻的影响犹在，所以雀巢在贫穷国家的各种行动都受到严密的监督，享受如此“如荣”的企业寥寥无几。这就意味着任何重塑公司“健康”形象的举动都会受到质疑，在新兴市场尤其如此。

Nestlé’s strategy this time round is to work more closely with health authorities ac ross the world. Its aim is to localise “wellness” in much the way it has adapted its coffees to various markets. It is, for instance, greatly expanding its efforts to add essential micronutrients—ranging from iodine and iron to vitamin A and zinc—to its basic foodstuffs. Some 2 billion people suffer from deficiencies of such vitamins and minerals, with impacts ranging from blindness to premature death. The firm had dismissed infant cereal as a niche product, but now its researchers are using that product as a “carrier” for probiotics and vitamins for children. It is also developing cheap, single-serving packets of nutrient-rich food for the very poor, another market it had previously stayed out of. Mr Laube says the defensiveness of the past is gone: “Now we have a noble cause.

这次雀巢的策略是与健康机构紧密合作，目的是沿用咖啡适应各地市场的方式将“健康”本地化。例如，雀巢正在努力将微量元素（从碘、铁道到他命A和锌）加入普通的食品当中。大约有20亿民众正在承受维他命和矿物质缺乏带来的病痛，从失明到早衰。雀巢曾经把婴儿谷物产品当做滞销产品，但是现在的研究人员却把这种产品当做为婴儿补充益生菌和维他命的“载体”，同时也在开发价格低廉，营养丰富一次性包装食品。这个市场是雀巢不曾染指之地。Laube先生说过去保守的时代已经过去了：“现在我们做的是崇高的事业”

That may help in the poor world, but could Europe’s hysteria over Frankenfoods (as the British media dubbed GM foods) also stand in the way of Nestlé’s wellness

products, if they are perceived to involve too much scientific meddling? The firm is t reading carefully. Peter van Bladeren, head of Nestlé’s main research centre in Lausanne, insists its functional foods will “only improve nature” by adding healthy ingredients: “no weird stuff”. Unlike GM crops, which mainly benefit farmers, functional foods are intended to provide benefits to consumers. And the need to produce solid evidence of benefit to satisfy regulators should reassure shoppers, says Eric Scher of Sanford Bernstein, a research firm.

那也许能够帮助贫穷世界，但是如果人们认为雀巢产品的科技干涉过多，欧洲人对转基因食物的过度热情会妨碍雀巢保健食品的发展吗？雀巢正在小心前行。位于Lausanne的雀巢总研究中心的负责人Peter van Bladeren坚持认为功能产品只有通过增加健康元素才能改善自然：没有古怪的东西。转基因植物主要对农民有利，而功能食品则对消费者有利。研究公司Sanford Bernstein的Eric Scher表示：必须出具确凿的证据才能达到管理者的要求，令消费者放心。

Stretching the brand

Fi nally, there is a risk that Nestlé’s new strategy could damage the firm’s blockbuster brands, which have taken decades to establish. This could happen in several ways. If some of the firm’s functional foods fail to pass muster with the regulators or, worse, turn out to cause harm rather than do good, then consumers could turn against all its products, even those that make no health claims at all. That could hurt, because most of its revenues will still come from selling treats like chocolate, ice-cream, coffee and flavoured milk.

最后，雀巢的新战略可能会损害耗费数十年建立起来的畅销品牌。有可能以几种方式呈现。如果雀巢的功能食品有几项未能通过审核，或者更糟，被证明对人体有害而不是有益。如果真是如此，消费者会抵制雀巢旗下的所有产品，非功能性产品也不能幸免。雀巢可能因此蒙受重创，因为雀巢的利润主要来源于像巧克力、咖啡和各种口味的牛奶等甜品的销售。

That points to导致 another potential snag问题困难. If a company known for selling indulgence wants to reinvent itself to symbolise wellness, does that not send mixed messages to the consumer? Mr Bulcke insists that there is no contradiction, and that taste will always trump nutritional benefits in the development of new products. Carmakers, after all, see no problem with marketing new cars on the basis that they produce fewer greenhouse-gas emissions without compromising on performance.

这又可能引发另一个问题。如果一个以推销放纵著称的公司将自己重塑为推销健康的公司，消费者就不会收到好坏混合的信息吗？Bulcke先生坚持认为毫无自相矛盾之处，在开发新产品的过程中口味将取代营养功效的地位。毕竟，汽车制造商只要能够研制出温室气体排放量低却不影响表现的轿车就不会在推广新车的时候遇到问题。

Mr Brabeck-Letmathe is convinced that all of Nestlé’s brands can be made to fit into the wellness strategy. “You don’t have to stretch,” he insists, “if the discipline of every product is to be healt hier.” Every product must undergo what he calls a “sixty-forty-plus” analysis: at least 60% of those tasting it must prefer it to a rival product or the one it is replacing, and it must also be more nutritious. The company has, for instance, produced a new way of churning its ice-cream that produces much smaller ice crystals than the usual method. As a result it can still taste creamy even though it has half the fat.

Brabeck-Letmathe先生坚信雀巢所有品牌的产品都可以通过调整减刑健康战略。他坚持认为“如果每个产品的标准越来越健康，你就没必要调整。”每个产品都必须经过他所谓的“六十、四十、加”分析：至少有60%的人在品尝之后钟爱这款产品，而非竞争对手的产品或是这款产品正在取代的竞争对手的产品，而且这款产品必须更加富有营养。例如，雀巢已经研发出一种新型的生产冰激凌的方法，优点在于比传统方法相比产生的更小的冰晶。而且虽然脂肪含量只有传统冰激凌的一半，但是口味依旧甜美。

Critics question, however, whether, in aggregate, Nestlé can deliver on its ambitious health and wellness promis es. “The goals of food companies and the goals of public health are fundamentally different,” says Marion Nestle (no relation), a nutrition expert at New York University who is a noted critic of big food firms. “There is very little evidence that eating th ese things makes people healthier. If you want to do something for your health, you don’t eat as much, and you don’t eat processed food.”

然而，批评家怀疑雀巢是否能够大体实现其雄心勃勃宣扬地保健和健康功效。“食品公司和公共健康机构的目标大相径庭。实用这些食品有益人体健康基本是不可靠的。若要健康，则少食，并且不吃加工食品”纽约大学营养学家、以批评大型食品公司著称的Marion Nestle （与雀巢无关）如是说。

That might indeed be healthier—but for many, perhaps, less pleasurable too. Mr Brabeck-Letmathe, a former ice-cream salesman from Austria, is unrepentant. Every single morning, he says, he enjoys dark chocolate and coffee made by Nestlé: “We don’t have to be ashamed.”

这样也许确实更加健康，但是对于许多人来说，也许吃饭就变得无趣了。从前是澳大利亚冰激凌销售人员的Brabeck-Letmathe就顽固不化。他说，自己每天早上都要吃雀巢出品的黑巧克力和咖啡：“没什么丢人的啊。”

[2010.04.15] Extrasolar planets 系外行星

Mankind’s ability to look for planets like Earth just got five times better

人类搜寻类地行星的能力比以前强大了5倍

Apr 15th 2010 | From The Economist print edition

First rock from the sun

来自太阳的第一块岩石

THREE centuries have passed since the polymath Sir Christopher Wren predicted that

“a time will come when men will stretch out their eyes—they should see planets like our Earth.” By most astronomers’ accounts, that time is just about nigh. Indeed, detecting big planets orbiting other stars is no longer tricky—nearly 450 such exoplanets have been catalogued. Smaller, rocky planets orbiting at a comfortable distance from their stars—as the Earth does—remain more elusive. 三个世纪前，大数学家Christopher Wren爵士预言道：“当人类极目远望，发现类地系外行星的那刻必将到来。”根据大多数天文学家的说法，这个时刻就在眼前了。其实，发现大型系外行星已经不是困难的事情了——已经有450颗这样的系外行星记录在案。但是，以合适的距离围绕母星公转的类地岩石行星的行踪依然捉摸不定。

Most exoplanets have been discovered by inferring their presence from the rhythmic wobble their gravity imparts on their home star—like a waltz between two dancers of markedly different weights. The problem is that this method favours the discovery of large planets close to their stars. As a result, the catalogue of planets is filled with “hot Jupiters”, huge bodies baking brightly in the light of their sun. 大多数系外行星都是通过一种叫“摆动方法”的测量方法发现的。这些行星的引力在他们母星上造成的节奏摆动就像是两个体重相差悬殊的人在跳华尔兹。天文学家以据此推测出系外行星是否出现。但是，这个方法只对那些靠近他们母星绕行的大型行星有效。因此，系外行星分类表里都是“热木星”——那些沐浴在他们母星阳光下的明亮的巨人。

To find places that might support life it is necessary to look for planets a little farther away from their stars, but not so far away that they are frozen lumps of ice and rock, like the dwarf planet Pluto. But it isn’t easy. Spotting the light from a tiny planet across astronomical distances is akin to discerning a red-hot pinhead right next to a floodlight from many kilometres away.

为了发现适合生命居住的地方，必然要去寻找那些距离母星稍远的行星。但是也不能太远，不能像矮行星冥王星那样，简直就是冰块和岩石速冻在一块的东西。这个要求并不简单。要想分辨出经过上万光年传播的微弱的行星反光堪比从数千公里的地方发现紧挨着照明灯的小红点。

Astronomers have partially solved the problem of looking at objects near to a star’s bright glare by inventing the coronagraph, which focuses all the incoming light around a dark spot in the telescope’s innards, neatly clipping off most of the central starlight and passing on much of the planetary glow. For exoplanet hunting that is not quite good enough. Some of the starlight still gets through, easily obscuring planets that are millions of times fainter than their parent stars. 天文学家用日冕仪一定程度上解决了观测恒星强光附近物体的难题。在望远镜内部，日冕仪精巧地阻挡了中央绝大部分的恒星光，让更多的行星光进入望远镜。这样一来，日冕仪就能分析圆形黑暗区域周围的光。但是对于狩猎系外行星来说这还远远不够。有些恒星的光芒依然能够进入望远镜，非常容易遮蔽比它暗百万倍以上的行星。

A novel approach plays with the peaks and troughs of the light waves to do the job more effectively. This week, in Nature, Eugene Serabyn of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California and his colleagues describe a stunning implementation of what is known as an optical vortex coronagraph. In place of a dark spot, this uses a disk of glassy material, etched with a carefully designed pattern which changes the phase of the incoming light, in effect twisting it back onto itself and creating a dark hole in the centre of the image. This blots out the starlight more effectively,

making it easier to see any nearby planets.

另外一种分析光波峰波谷的新式技术更能有效的解决这个问题。本周Nature杂志刊登了来自加利福尼亚喷漆实验室的Eugene Serabyn和他同事共同发展的一项效果极佳的新技术——漩涡光学日冕仪。它把一块用特殊图案蚀刻的玻璃碟片放置在（望远镜）的黑暗区域上。经过仔细设计，这种图案能够改变入射光的相位，也就是说把光线上打了个结，造成了成像图片中心的黑洞。这个技术可以更加有效地遮挡恒星心星光，使得观测附近的行星更加容易。In order for this technique to work, the distortions imposed on the incoming light during its passage through the Earth’s atmosphere must be removed using a trick called “wavefront correction”. The researchers did this using a small part of the giant Hale telescope in California, with which they examined a star called HR 8799 in the constellation of Pegasus. When images showing three planets orbiting this star were obtained in 2008, it was the first time exoplanets had been directly observed. The researchers could also see the planets—and their telescope was in effect five times smaller than the telescopes used in 2008.

为了使得这个技术良好运转，需要用一种称为“波面校正”的技巧去掉入射光穿越地球大气层时会发生畸变。研究人员动用了位于加利福尼亚的海尔望远镜的一小部分完成了此项工作。在海尔望远镜的帮助下，他们观测了位于天马座中的恒星HR8799。拍摄照片显示三颗行星正围绕这个恒星运转。虽然2008年的时候就已经得到了这个结果，但是这是第一次直接观测到系外行星，而且他们的望远镜比2008年使用的要小5倍。

With a two-metre telescope—small by modern astronomical standards—Dr Serabyn and his team say they could spot a planet 33 light-years away orbiting its host star at a similar distance to that at which the Earth orbits the Sun. Such a planet would fall into the so-called “Goldilocks zone” (neither too hot nor too cold) where the interesting chemistry should happen. As well as bringing planet-hunting within the reach of many smallish telescopes on Earth, the new technique also means that smaller, cheaper, or perhaps more numerous space telescopes—entirely free of deleterious atmospheric effects—could be employed to stretch out the eyes of men and finally fulfil Wren’s prediction.

Serabyn博士和他的团队声称，仅仅用低于现代天文标准的2米口径望远镜，他们就可以发现距离母星33光年绕其公转的行星。【译者注，这个很有可能是economist的笔误，因为33光年大约等于2086920倍从地球到太阳的距离】这个轨道半径同地球到太阳的距离非常相近。类似这样的行星是位于不冷也不热的“可居住区域”（Goldilocks Zone），适合发生神奇的生命化学反应。这项新技术不仅意味着把地面小型望远镜带进了狩猎行星的行动中，也意味着更小更便宜可能数量众多的完全不受有害的大气干扰的太空望远镜也加入到拓展人类视野的行动中来。最终实现Wren的预言

[2010.03.25] Ethiopia: Forget about democracy 忘记民主吧

The chances of a fair vote in the coming election are fast receding

在马上进行的选举中公平投票的可能性越来越小

Mar 25th 2010 | NAIROBI | From The Economist print edition

THE United States, the richest and most powerful nation on earth, is also the most generous donor to one of the poorest, Ethiopia. America says it gives $1 billion in aid every year to Africa’s second-most-populous country, which also happens to

host the African Union’s headquarters.

埃塞俄比亚是世界上最贫困的国家之一，在非洲其人口位居第二，同时也是非洲联盟的总部所在地。作为世界上最富有最强大的国家，美国是埃塞俄比亚最慷慨的援助国。美国表示，每年给予埃塞俄比亚的援助为10亿美元。

Yet Barack Obama’s administration has barely stirred itself to protest against recent attempts by Ethiopia to jam programmes in Amharic, the country’s main language, beamed by the Voice of America, a respected state-funded broadcaster. Ethiopia’s prime minister, Meles Zenawi, brazenly says he will continue to jam the signal for as long as it incites what he calls hatred. He has compared the Amharic service to the hate speech spewing from Radio Mille Collines, which helped provoke Rwanda’s genocide in 1994. The State Department called the comment inflammatory but seems loth to make Mr Zenawi suffer for it.

最近，埃塞俄比亚试图干扰著名的美国之音用该国主要语言阿姆哈拉语所播送的节目。此举遭到奥巴马政府鲜有的抗议。埃塞俄比亚总理梅莱斯?泽纳维公然表示，只要这些节目煽动他所谓的仇恨，他将继续对其信号进行干扰。泽纳维还把阿姆哈拉语节目与千山广播电台散播的仇恨言论相提并论，后者曾使1994年的卢旺达种族大屠杀愈演愈烈。虽然美国认为他出言不逊，但似乎并不愿让泽纳维为此付出代价。

One reason is that the Pentagon needs Ethiopia and its bare-knuckle intelligence service to help keep al-Qaeda fighters in neighbouring Somalia at bay. Many of Washington’s aid people argue that, though Mr Zenawi is no saint, he still offers the best chance of keeping Ethiopia together; even now, as one of the world’s least developed countries, it cannot feed itself.

其中一个理由就是五角大楼需要埃塞俄比亚及其情报机构的帮助，以便将基地组织控制在其邻国索马里。华盛顿的许多智囊人员认为，尽管泽纳维不是圣人，但他仍然是维持埃塞俄比亚统一的最佳人选。作为世界上最不发达的国家之一，埃塞俄比亚至今未能解决温饱问题。Human-rights campaigners think the limpness of America and European Union countries, especially Britain, in the face of Mr Zenawi gives him a free rein to abuse his own people. This week’s report by Human Rights Watch, a New York-based lobby, claims that, after 20 years in power, Mr Zenawi’s ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front has “total control of local and district administrations to monitor and intimidate individuals at a household level.” With a general election due on May 23rd, opposition supporters, says the report, are often castigated as subversives by the government, denied the right to assembly, and harassed. The press has been “stifled”. Newspapers avoid writing about opposition parties or people the government says have terrorist links.

人权活动家认为，面对泽纳维的所作所为，欧美国家尤其是英国表现得过于软弱，以致于他对自己的人民肆意妄为。据位于纽约的人权观察组织本周发布的报告显示，泽纳维所在的执政党埃塞俄比亚人民革命民主阵线经过20年的经营，完全掌控了各级政府，在必要的时候监视并恐吓其人民。该报告称，政府常常利用5月23日举行大选的机会将反对党的支持者斥为颠覆分子，并且不准其进行集会，并对其进行骚扰。新闻界已被政府控制。报纸绝口不提反对党或反对者，政府认为其与恐怖分子有关联。

Furthermore, says Ben Rawlence, who wrote the report, “Meles is using aid to build a single-party state.” Foreign governments, he says, have colluded in eroding civil liberties and democracy by letting their aid be manipulated by Mr Zenawi. Because

of his party’s stranglehold at village level, its members can decid e on entitlements such as places for children in school and the distribution of food handouts. Peasants who back the opposition get less. Farmers complain they are denied fertiliser for the same reason.

而且，该报告的撰写者本?罗伦斯表示，“梅莱斯正利用援助打造一党专政的国家。”本?罗伦斯还说，通过让泽纳维操纵他们的援助，某些国家已经密谋破坏该国的公民自由和民主。由于该党牢牢掌握村级行政权，因此其成员在诸如儿童在校的座位和援助食物的分配等方面拥有决定权。支持反对派的农民得到的食物更少。同样地，支持反对派的农场主则与肥沃的土地无缘。

The Ethiopian government has denounced the report as outrageous and ridiculous. Mr Zenawi says that groups such as Human Rights Watch interpret human rights too narrowly. The only way to guarantee Ethiopia a free future, he argues, is to keep it stable while it continues to develop. His political calculations are straightforward. He reckons, for instance, that reporting by the Voice of America does more harm inside the country than outside criticism of his censorship.

埃塞俄比亚政府严厉斥责该报告，认为它蛮横而荒谬。泽纳维表示，人权观察等组织对人权的理解过于狭隘。他辩称，在埃塞俄比亚持续发展时，只有稳定才能保证埃塞俄比亚有一个自由的未来。泽纳维的政治打算是坦率的。例如，他认为与国外对他审查制度的批评相比，美国之音节目在其国内造成的危害更大。

In any case, Mr Zenawi has signed up for a code of electoral conduct and invited foreign election observers in. He still has time to win over critics before the election, for instance by freeing an imprisoned opposition leader, Birtukan Mideksa, as a goodwill gesture.

但是，不管怎么说，泽纳维已经签署一项选举行为法案并邀请外国选举观察员进入。在大选前，他仍然有时间赢得批评家的好感，比如释放反对派领袖波图坎?米迪克莎作为一个友善的姿态。

Aid-giving governments, for their part, are unlikely to change their minds. Even after hundreds of protesters were shot dead by the police after the last elections in 2005, aid to Ethiopia was only repackaged in different forms, not suspended. Besides, foreign politicians have promised their own voters that they will dish out large amounts of aid and argue that at least Ethiopia is less corrupt than many other African countries. Mr Zenawi understands this well—and exploits it.

那些援助埃塞俄比亚的国家不太可能改变他们的心意。即使在2005年大选后，警察射杀了几百名抗议者，对埃塞俄比亚的援助都没有终止，只不过换了个形式而已。而且，外国政客已向自己的选民承诺，他们将提供更大的援助，并坚称与许多其他非洲国家相比，埃塞俄比亚至少没那么腐败。泽纳维对此了如指掌，而且运用起来得心应手。

[2010.03.18] Africa: When feeding the hungry is political 当喂饱饥民成为政治工具

Mar 18th 2010 | NAIROBI | From The Economist print edition

At least they’re getting something

至少他们得到了些什么

THE World Food Programme (WFP), created by the United Nations in 1962 to save lives, has since grown into the behemoth of the aid business, envied and disliked in almost equal measure by many of its smaller peers. It says it feeds 90m people a year in 73 countries. Yet some query whether it always fulfils the high ideals of its humanitarian mandate.

1962年，联合国创建了世界粮食计划署以拯救世界人口的生命，而自那时起，该组织机构就发展成为了援助界的泰斗，被一些处于同等水平上的类似机构嫉妒并憎恶。据它报道，每年它的援助对象涉及73个国家，总计9000万人口。然而，一些人仍质疑，它是否在按照起人道主义规范来实现其高尚的目标。

The WFP has had to get used to fierce criticism, particularly of its operations in Africa. The main complaint is that food aid creates a dependency culture among the poor. The WFP employs large numbers of press officers in its headquarters in Rome and elsewhere to jump to its defence. Even so, a recent scandal over its work in Somalia has pricked it. An internal UN report accuses the WFP of abjectly failing to get food to starving Somalis. The report says that systematic collusion between local WFP staffers, Islamist militants and food transporters has led to the diversion of up to half of the food it ships to Somalia, with some of it going to jihadists. The WFP has hotly denied the allegations of corruption, but it has ceased working with three transport contractors who are alleged to have been involved in arms trading.

世界粮食计划署需要让自己习惯于听到尖刻的批评，特别是关于他们在非洲的种种行为。其中，主要的牢骚是粮食援助会让穷人培养出一种对外界的依赖性。世界粮食计划署在位于罗马的总部以及其它地方聘请了大量的媒体人员为穷人们辩护。即使这样，最近揭露的关于其在索马里的工作让该机构如坐针毡。一份联合国内部报告指责说，世界粮食计划署无法为挨饿的索马里居民提供食物，以至于让人民陷入悲惨境地。报告指出，世界粮食计划署的驻本地人员、伊斯兰教民兵组织与食物运输单位之间的密切谋划，导致了该计划署运到索马里一半的食物被转移，有些还供应给了圣战组织。世界粮食计划署颇为激动地否认了这种关于其腐败行径的主张，但该机构已经停止了与三家据说参与过军火买卖的运输单位之间的合作。The truth is hard to tell. Visiting Somalia i s dangerous. The WFP’s operation there is run from Nairobi, capital of neighbouring Kenya. It has to contend with pirates at sea and armed groups on land. A spat with the militant Shabab group, now allied to al-Qaeda, means WFP is no longer supplying food to 1m of the 3m Somalis who need it.

事实很难说清。走访索马里的危险性又很大。世界粮食计划署驻当地的工作站是从肯尼亚首都内罗毕运营的。它们需要在海上与海盗们抗争，而在陆地上又要与武装组织战斗。如今该机构又与沙巴民兵组织（现与al-Qaeda结盟）结仇，这意味着世界粮食计划署无法再为100万（国家的三分之一人口）挨饿的索马里居民提供食物。

The danger for the WFP is that the row over its work in Somalia will impede its massive operations in Ethiopia, Sudan, Kenya, Congo and beyond by prompting calls for extra scrutiny there too. Sudan alone accounted for $635m of WFP’s $2.2 billion spent in sub-Saharan Africa in 2008. Diplomats there have long suspected that food aid has been siphoned off by officials in south Sudan and by armed groups in Sudan’s western region, Darfur.

世界粮食计划署所面临的危险是，他们在索马里的工作引发的争议将阻碍他们在埃塞俄比亚、

苏丹、肯尼亚、刚果以及其它地区的广泛援助计划，因为各界会要求在这些国家也同样进行多余的实地审查才能进一步进行工作。2008年，世界粮食计划署在非洲南撒哈拉地区花费了22亿的资金，仅苏丹就占了6.35亿。外交人员也长期心存质疑，表示粮食援助被南苏丹的政府官员与苏丹西部的达尔富尔的武装组织所吞噬。

The whole business of food aid to Africa has come under additional scrutiny recently after a BBC report alleged that up to 95% of the cash provided to buy food for rebel-controlled areas during Ethiopia’s hor rendous famine in 1984-85 was in fact used to buy weapons. The WFP says it had little involvement in that episode: it was feeding government-held areas. International charities have denied the story. Bob Geldof, a musician and anti-poverty campaigner, worries that the claim will be exploited by those who want to cut aid.

英国广播电台报道称，1984年-1985年埃塞俄比亚出现可怕的饥荒期间，社会各界为叛军控制的地区募集购买粮食的资金的95%，事实上都用来购买了军火；在报道之后，对非洲的粮食援助的全部运营都要接受附加审查。世界粮食计划署表示，他们几乎没有参与当时那个事件：他们在为政府控制的地区供粮。国际慈善机构却不以为然。音乐家与扶贫活动家鲍勃?戈尔多夫担心，这些论断将会被那些希望削减粮食援助的人所利用。

But the rebels in question, who hail from Tigray, a northern province, have run Ethiopia since 1991. And the country’s prime minister, Meles Zenawi, a rebel leader in 1984, faces charges that he is using food aid now to buy support before elections due on May 23rd. Human-rights investigators, including those of the American government, say they have documented the withholding of food and other benefits from opposition supporters. The Ethiopian government denies it, and says that the BBC allegations come from a political opponent of Mr Zenawi.

但上述提到的叛军（来自埃塞尔比亚北部省份蒂格雷）自1991年就统治着这个国家。而该国的总理梅莱斯?泽纳维（1984年的叛军领袖）面临着指控，即他现在正在利用粮食援助，寻求今年5月23日选举前的支持。人权调查单位，包括美国政府的派遣单位，表示他们已经将反对派的支持者所扣留的粮食与其它利益记录在案。然而，埃塞尔比亚政府却对此表示否认，并说道，英国广播电台的断言仅仅是来源泽纳维的一位政敌。

The WFP says it wi ll welcome any investigation into its activities in Somalia. “The integrity of our organisation is paramount,” insists Josette Sheeran, a former State Department official now heading the outfit. About $2 billion of its $5 billion global budget is provided by America, most of it in sacks of surplus American food. But the WFP—and Somalia’s Shabab rebels—would prefer the American government to give cash, as the Europeans do, which can then be used to buy local food, rewarding farmers who produce surpluses. Geo rge Bush’s administration agreed but could not persuade Congress to concur.

世界粮食计划署表示，对于其机构在索马里的活动，他们将欢迎任何形式的调查。“我们机构的廉正是无懈可击的，”负责该机构的执行总干事约塞特?施林（前美国国务院官员）坚持讲道。粮食援助的全球预算达到50亿美元的价值，20亿美元是由美国来提供的，大多数都是大袋美国的盈余粮食。但世界粮食计划署——与索马里的沙巴叛军——更喜欢美国政府能像欧洲那样提供现金，到时他们就可以用这些现金去购买本地粮食，给那些生产多余粮食的农民给予奖励。乔治?布什的政府同意这种做法，但无法说服国会去执行。

Quite apart from the allegations over its role in Somalia, the WFP is failing to meet its target for donations this year. So school meals and other programmes will

be cut. America is unlikely to be as generous with cash as it is in kind. Europe’s contribution of $1 billion may be slashed too. This year’s WFP budget of $2.6 billion for sub-Saharan Africa is $1.1 billion short. And the outlook for Africa’s own production is grim. Its food output will fall by a fifth over the next four decades, reckons the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington. Climate change, it says, will make food even scarcer in semi-arid countries such as Sudan. The question of how to feed the starving will not go away.

我们姑且不谈舆论对世界粮食计划署在索马里的作用，该机构也无法达到今年的捐赠目标。因此，学校就餐与其它计划方案都将被削减。美国政府在提供现金方面不可能像他们以货代款那样慷慨。欧洲价值10亿美元捐赠的可能也会被减少。世界粮食计划署为非洲南撒哈拉地区的捐赠预算是26亿美元，到目前还差11亿美元。而非洲自身的生产前景也是暗淡的。据美国华盛顿的粮食政策研究机构估计，非洲的粮食产量在今后的40年里将会下降20%。该机构表示，气候变化让半干旱国家（如苏丹）的粮食更为稀缺。如此，如何解决饥民的生活问题仍将心头之患。

[2010.03.31]Genetic Shock 基因大休克

Mar 30th 2010 | From The Economist online

A surprising court ruling in America may loosen the drug industry’s grip on important genes

法院裁决出人意料，美国制药业可能被迫放松关键基因掌握权

PERSONALISED medicine has proved an elusive dream. Since the decoding of the human genome, biotechnology companies have claimed that by matching a person’s genetic make-up with specialised treatments, they can tailor drugs to maximise benefits and minimise side effects. Alas, researchers have discovered that the link between a given person’s genetic make-up and specific diseases is much more complex than they had hoped. The tantalising vision remains out of reach.

针对个人特征的医学用药已被证实只是黄粱美梦。自人类基因被破解以来，生物科技公司声称，根据个人的基因组成搭配相应的专门治疗，它们可以定制药物使药效最大化而副作用最小化。可惜的是，研究者们发现，特定人的基因组成与某种疾病的关联比我们所想的要复杂的多。这个迫切的愿景依然无法企及。

A rare exception has been the success that Myriad Genetics, an American firm, has had with two genes called BRCA1 and BRCA2. Certain versions of these genes, it has been shown, are associated with a high risk of breast and ovarian cancer. The University of Utah has patented the genes and licenses them to Myriad. The firm uses that exclusivity to create expensive genetic tests for cancer risk which only it offers for sale (the patents and licensing conditions are different outside the United States).

一个鲜见的成功特例是一个名为Myraid Genetics的美国公司，这家公司拥有两组叫做BRCA1和BRCA2的基因，已有研究表明，这些基因的某种变体和乳房癌和卵巢癌有重大关联。尤他哈大学已为这些基因申请了专利并将其授权给Myriad生物制药公司。公司利用这种独一无二的专利权为癌症患者进行昂贵的遗传药物治疗，这些治疗只能标价出售(美国境外的专利和授权条件则不同)。

The BRCA patents have long frustrated medical researchers, cancer lobbyists and