2011年美国大学生数学建模竞赛优秀作品

Abstract

This paper presents one case study to illustrate how probability distribution and genetic algorithm and geographical analysis of serial crime conducted within a geographic information system can assist crime investigation.Techniques are illustrated for predicting the location of future crimes and for determining the possible residence of offenders based on the geographical pattern of the existing crimes and quantitative method,which is PSO.It is found that such methods are relatively easy to implement within GIS given appropriate data but rely on many assumptions regarding offenders’behaviour.While some success has been achieved in applying the techniques it is concluded that the methods are essentially theory-less and lack evaluation.Future research into the evaluation of such methods and in the geographic behaviour of serial offenders is required in order to apply such methods to investigations with confidence in their reliability.

1.Introduction

This series of armed robberies occurred in Phoenix,Arizona between13September and5December1999and included35robberies of fast food restaurants,hotels and retail businesses.The offenders were named the“Supersonics”by the Phoenix Police Department Robbery Detail as the first two robberies were of Sonic Drive-In restaurants.After the35th robbery,the offenders appear to have desisted from their activity and at present the case remains unsolved.The MO was for the offenders to target businesses where they could easily gain entry,pull on a ski mask or bandanna, confront employees with a weapon,order them to the ground,empty the cash from a safe or cash register into a bag and flee on foot most likely to a vehicle waiting nearby. While it appears that the offenders occasionally worked alone or in pairs,the MO, weapons and witness descriptions tend to suggest a group of at least three offenders. The objective of the analysis was to use the geographic distribution of the crimes to predict the location of the next crime in an area that was small enough to be suitable for the Robbery Detail to conduct stakeouts and surveillance.After working with a popular crime analysis manual(Gottleib,Arenberg and Singh,1994)it was found that the prescribed method produced target areas so large that they were not operationally useful.However,the approach was attractive as it required only basic information and relied on simple statistical analysis.To identify areas that were more useful for the Robbery Detail,it was decided to use a similar approach combined with other measurable aspects of the spatial distribution of the crimes.As this was a“live”case, new crimes and information were integrated into the analysis as it came to hand.

2.Assumption

In order to modify the model existed,we apply serial new assumptions to the principle so that our rectified model can be much more practical.Below are the assumptions:

1.C riminals prefer something about the locations where previous crimes were

committed committed.

.We supposed the criminals have a greater opportunity to ran away if they choose to crime in the site they are familiar with.In addition,the criminals probably choose previous kill sites where their target potential victims live and work.2.Offenders regard it safer to crime in their previous kill site as time went by.This is true that the site would be severely monitored by police when a short term crime happened and consequently the criminal would suffer a risk of being arrested in that site.And as mentioned above ,the police would reduce the frequency of examining the previous kill sites as time went by.

3.Criminals are likely to choose the site that have optimal distance .This is a reasonable assumption since it is probably insecure to crime in the site that stays far away and that costs an amount of energy to escape and adds the opportunity to be arrested in such an unfamiliar terrain.And it is also impossible to crime in the site nearby since it increases the probability of being recognized or being trapped.As a result,we can measure a optimal distance in series perpetrations.

4.Crimes are committed by individual.We assume that all the case in the model are committed by individuals instead of by organized members.In this way the criminal is subject to the assumptions mentioned above due to his insufficient preparation.

5.Criminals Criminals'

'movements unconstrained.Because of the difficulty of finding real-world distance data,we invoke the “Manhattan assumption”:There are enough streets and sidewalks in a sufficiently grid-like pattern that movements along real-world movement routes is the same as “straight-line”movement in a space be discrete into city blocks.It is demonstrated that across several types of serial crime,the Euclidean and Manhattan distances are essentially interchangeable in predicting anchor points.

3.The prediction of the next crime site

3.1The measure of the optimal distance

Due to the fact that the mental optimal distance of the criminal is related to whether he is a careful person or not,it is impossible for him to make a fixed constant.Besides,the optimal distance will change in different moment.However,such distance should be reflected on the distances of the former crime sites.Presume that the coordinates of the n crime sites is respectively ),(11y x 、),(22y x 、……、),(n n y x ,and define the distance between the th i crime site and the th j one as j D ,i .The distance above we first consider it as Euclid distance,which is:

2

2,)()(j i j i j i y y x x D ?+?=With that,we are able to measure the distance between the th n crime site and the th 1-n one respectively.

According to the assumption 2,the criminal believes that the earlier crime sites have became safer

for him to commit a crime again,so we can define his mental optimal distance,giving the sites the weights from little to much according to when the offenses happened in time sequence,as:

∑?==1

1,n i n

i i D w SD Satisfying 121......?<<

is measured by week,we can have ∑

?==11n i i k

k t t w .

SD can reflect the criminal's mental condition to some extent,so we can use it to predict the mental optimal distance of the criminal in the th n 1+case.While referring to the th n crime site,the criminal is able to use SD to estimate the optimal distance in the next time,and while referring to the rest crime sites,the optimal distances reduce as time goes back.Thus,the optimal security of the th i crime site can be measured as the following:

n n

i i SD t t SD *=3.2The measure of the probability distribution

Given the crime sites and location,we can estimate tentatively the probability density distribution of the future crimes,which equals to that we add some small normal distribution to every scene of crime to produce a probability distribution estimate function.The small normal distribution uses the SD mentioned above as the mean,which is:

∑=??=n i i i SD r n y x f 122)2)(exp(211),(σ

σπi r is defined as the Euclid distance between the site to the th i crime site,and the standard difference of the deviation of the criminal's mental optimal distance is defined as σ,which also reflects the uncertainty of the deviation of the criminal's mental optimal distance,involves the impacts of many factors and can not be measured quantitatively.The discussion of the standard difference is as following:

3.3The quantization of the standard difference

The standard difference is identified according to the following goal,which is,every prediction of the next crime site according to the crime sites where the crimes were committed before should have the highest rate of success.When having to satisfying such optimization objective,it is

impossible to make the direct analysis and exhaustivity.Instead,we have to use the optimized solutions searching algorithm,which is genetic algorithm.

\

Figure1:The Distribution of the Population of the Last Generation

According to the figure,the population of the last generation is mostly concentrated near80, which is used as the standard distance and substituted to the*formula.With the*formula,we are able to predict the probability density of Whether the zones will be the next crime site.

Case analysis:

5crime site according to the4ones happened before Figure2:The prediction of the

th

6crime site according to the5ones happened before Figure3:The prediction of the

th

6crime site according to the5ones happened before Figure4:The prediction of the

th

According to the predictions happened before,the predictions of the outputs based on the models are accurate relatively,and they are able to be the references of the criminal investigations to some extent.However,when is frequency of such crime increases,the predictions of the outputs

23crime site according deviated the actual sites more and more,such as the prediction of the

th

to the22ones happened before,which is:

23crime site according to the22ones happened before Figure5:the prediction of the

th

Conclusion according to analysis:It may not be able to predict the next crime site accurately if we use Euclid distance to measure the probability directly.So,we should analyze according to the actual related conditions.For example,we can consider the traffic commutes comprehensively based on the conveniences of the escapes,such as the facilities of the express ways network and the tunnels.According to the hidden security of the commitments,we should consider the population of the area and the distance from the police department.Thus,we should give more weights to the commute convenience,hidden security and less population.In addition,when the commitments increases,the accuracy of the model may decrease,resulted from the fact that when the criminal has more experience,he will choose the next crime sites more randomly.

4.Problems and further improvements

With23crimes in the series the predictions tended to provide large areas that included the target crime but were too large to be useful given the limited resources the police had at their disposal.At this stage,a more detailed look was taken at the directionality and distances between crimes.No significant trends could be found in the sequential distance between crimes so an attempt was made to better quantify the relationship between crimes in terms of directionality.

The methodology began by calculating the geographic center of the existing crimes. The geographic center is a derived point that identifies the position at which the distance to each crime is minimized.For applications of the geographic center to crime analysis.Once constructed,the angle of each crime from the north point of the geographic center was calculated.From this it was possible to calculate the change in

direction for the sequential crimes.It was found that the offenders were tending to pattern their crimes by switching direction away from the last crime.It appears that the offenders were trying to create a random pattern to avoid detection but unwittingly created a uniform pattern based upon their choice of locations.This relationship was quantified and a simple linear regression used to predict what the next direction would be.

The analysis was once again applied to the data.While the area identified was reduced from previous versions and prioritized into sub-segments,the problem remained that the areas predicted were still too large to be used as more than a general guide to resource deployment.

A major improvement to the methodology was to include individual targets.By this stage of the series,hotels and auto parts retailers had become the targets of choice.A geo-coded data set became available that allowed hotels and retail outlets to be plotted and compared to the predicted target areas.Ideally those businesses falling within the target areas could be prioritized as more likely targets.However,in some cases the distribution of the likely businesses appeared to contradict the area predicted.For example,few target hotels appeared in the target zone identified by the geographic analysis.In this case,more reliance was placed upon the location of individual targets. From this analysis it was possible to identify a prioritized list of individual commercial targets,which was of more use operationally.Maps were also provided to give an indication of target areas.Figure6demonstrates a map created using this methodology.

It is apparent from the above discussion that the target areas identified were often too large to be used as more than a general guide by the Robbery Detail.However,by including the individual targets,it was possible to restrict the possible target areas to smaller,more useful areas,and a few prioritized targets.However,such an approach has the danger of being overly restrictive and it is not the purpose of the analysis to restrict police operations but to suggest priorities.This problem was somewhat dealt with by involving investigators in the analysis and presenting the results in an objective manner,such that investigators could make their own judgments about the results.

To be more confident in using this kind of analysis a stronger theoretical background to the methods is required.What has been applied here is to simply exploit the spatial relationships in the information available without considering what the connection is to the actual behaviour of the offenders.For example,what is the reason behind a particular trend observed in the distance between crimes?Why would such a trend be expected between crimes that occur on different days and possibly involve different individuals?While some consideration was given to identifying the reason behind the pattern of directionality and while it seems reasonable to expect offender’s to look for freeway access,such reasoning has tended to follow the analysis rather than substantiate it.Without a theoretical background the analysis rests only on untested statistical relationships that do not provide an answer to the basic question:why this pattern?So next we will apply a quantitative method,which is PSO,based on a theoretical background,to locate the residence of the criminal's residence.

5.The prediction of the residence

Particle Swarm Optimization is a evolutionary computation,invented by Dr.Eberhart and Dr.Kennedy.It is a tool of optimization based on iteration,resulted from the research on the behaviors of the bird predation.Initiating a series of random number,the PSO is able to catch the optimization with iteration.

Like PSO,the resolution of our residence search problem is the criminal,whose serial crime sites have been abstracted into 23particles without volume and weight and extended to the 2-D space.Like bird,the criminal is presumed to go directly home when he committed a crime.So,there are 23criminals who commit the crimes in the 23sites mention before and then they will go home directly.The criminals are defined as a vector,so are their speed.All criminals have a fittness decided by the optimized functions,and every of them has a according speed which can decide their direction and distance.All the criminals know the best position (pbest,defined as the residence known by the individual),which has been discovered so far,and where they are now.Besides,every criminals also know the best position which has been found by the group (gbest,defined as the residence known by the group).Such search can be regarded as the experience of other criminals.The criminals are able to locate the residence by the experience of itself and the whole criminals.

PSO computation initiates the 23criminals and then the offenders will pursue the optimized one to search in the space.In other words,they find the optimized solutions by iteration.Presume that in the 2-D space the location and speed of the ith crime site is relatively ),(2,1,i i i x x X =and ),(2,1,i i i v v V =.In every iteration,the criminals will pursue the two best positions to update themselves.The two best positions are relatively the individual peak (pbest),),(2,1,i i i p p P =,which is found by the criminal himself,and the group optimized solution (gbest),g P ,which has been found to be the optimized solution by the whole group so far.When the criminals found the two optimized solutions,they will update their speed and new position based on the following formulas.

2

,1),1()()1()]

([)]([)()1(,,,,,22,,11,,=++=+?+?+=+j t v t x t x t x p r c t x p r c t wv t V j i j i j i j i j g j i j i j i j i In the above,the w is inertial weighted factor,21c andc are positive learning factors,21r andr are random number which are distributed uniformly between 0and 1.

The learning factor can make the criminals have self-conclude ability and ability of learning from others.Here we make both of them be 2,as what they always are in PSO.The inertial weighted factor w decides the extent of the inheritance of the current speed of the crime sites.The appropriate choice can make them have balanced searching and exploring ability.For balancing the global searching ability and the local improving ability of the criminal in the PSO algorithm,

here we adopt one of the self-adapted methods,which is Non-linear Dynamic Inertial Weight Coefficient to choose the inertial weight.The expression is as following:

?????=≤????>avg avg avg f f f f f f w w w f f w w ,))*((,min

min min max min max In the above,the max w and min w are defined respectively as the maximum and minimum of w,f means the current functional value of the criminal,and the avg f and min f respectively means the average value and minimum value of all the current criminals.In addition,the inertial weight will change automatically according to the objective value,which gives the name self-adapted method.

When the final values,which are estimations of the criminal's residence,become consistent,it will make the inertial weight increase.When they become sparser,it will make the inertial weight decrease.In the meantime,referring to the criminals whose final values are worse than the average value,its according inertial weighted factor will become smaller,which protect the crime site.Oppositely,when referring to the criminals whose final values are better than the average value,its according inertial weighted factor will become bigger,which makes the criminal nearer to the searching zone.

So now,with the PSO of Non-linear Dynamic Inertial Weight Coefficient,we can calculate the minimum value of

22,)()(j j j i y y x x R ?+?=,j=1,2,3 (23)

In the above,j ,i R is the residence of the criminal.Thus,we have the output (x,y)as

(2.368260870656715,3.031739124610613).

We can see the residence in the figure 7.

Figure7:The residence in the map

6.Conclusion

This paper has presented one case study to illustrate how probability distribution and geographical analysis of serial crime conducted can assist crime investigation. Unfortunately,in the Supersonic armed robbery investigation the areas identified were too large to have been of much use to investigators.Further,because of the number of assumptions applied the method does not inspire enough confidence to dedicate resources to comparing its results to the enormous amount of suspect data collected on the case.While the target areas predicted tended to be large,the mapping of individual commercial targets appears to offer a significant improvement to the method.However,as they stand,these methods lack a theoretical basis that would allow the results to be judged and applied in investigations.Limitations such as these can be offset to some degree by the involvement of investigators in the analysis.In the end,we used a quantitative method to locate the residence of the criminal to make the identified areas smaller.So,due to the advantages and drawbacks of the above methods,we suggest that we should use different methods to help us fight again the crimes comprehensively.

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2010年美国大学生数学建模竞赛B题一等奖

Summary Faced with serial crimes,we usually estimate the possible location of next crime by narrowing search area.We build three models to determine the geographical profile of a suspected serial criminal based on the locations of the existing crimes.Model One assumes that the crime site only depends on the average distance between the anchor point and the crime site.To ground this model in reality,we incorporate the geographic features G,the decay function D and a normalization factor N.Then we can get the geographical profile by calculating the probability density.Model Two is Based on the assumption that the choice of crime site depends on ten factors which is specifically described in Table5in this paper.By using analytic hierarchy process (AHP)to generate the geographical profile.Take into account these two geographical profiles and the two most likely future crime sites.By using mathematical dynamic programming method,we further estimate the possible location of next crime to narrow the search area.To demonstrate how our model works,we apply it to Peter's case and make a prediction about some uncertainties which will affect the sensitivity of the program.Both Model One and Model Two have their own strengths and weaknesses.The former is quite rigorous while it lacks considerations of practical factors.The latter takes these into account while it is too subjective in application. Combined these two models with further analysis and actual conditions,our last method has both good precision and operability.We show that this strategy is not optimal but can be improved by finding out more links between Model One and Model Two to get a more comprehensive result with smaller deviation. Key words:geographic profiling,the probability density,anchor point, expected utility

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