对外贸易专业外文翻译

金融危机和大规模的国际储备损耗：从对浮动的害怕转变为对失去国际储蓄的

害怕

Joshua Aizenman ?, Yi Sun

经济学和金融学国际观察24（2012）250-269

2008年9月与Ems大规模缩减短期外债有着很大的联系的全球危机,传播是因为美元流动性的过度需求和源头是在于在全球金融中心——美国的流动性危机。不像1990年代的突然停止危机，是由有很大发展需求的新兴市场引起的（直接或间接蔓延在其他新兴市场危机），而2008 年9月的危机中心是美国。在这场危机的高峰期，不只有关于时间的不确定性，还有全球危机的极限深度的不确定性。这种不确定性为新兴市场的速度使用他们的国际储备带来了新的挑战。而传统智慧是，超过短期债务的国际储备将足以应对去减债危机，几年的危机会适时减少短期和中期外债。有大规模减债压力的新兴市场面临一个艰巨的权衡: 在危机的第一个阶段使用的大部分外汇储备将产生最直接的资本外逃，从而缓解眼前的贬值压力。因此，短期的快速消耗储备将防止不良产出效应与巨大资产负债的风险的国家的实际贬值联系在一起。然而，如果全球危机将持续到2008年，而且无法在2009年投资外债到期产生的减债，在2009年将迫使产生大型损耗和更深的衰退，这些都将产生一个长期的危机，那么在危机的第一阶段快速消耗储备暴露在将使这个国家国际储备水平低的风险中。因此，在2008年迅速使用国际储备将防止2008年的危机，将也会在2009年增加产生危机的可能性。

在附录中我们概述了一个极小的模型来解释在一个不确定的持续时间和程度的危机重减轻流动性冲击产生的影响中国际储备所能提供的最佳自我保险。模型的结构类似于Diamond and Dybvig (1983)——投资在一个长期项目应在随机流动性冲击产生之前实现。因此，流动性冲击可能会迫使昂贵的早期投资的清盘，减少最终的收益。Aizenman(2011)提出的模型在收益实现之前允许两拨的减债。具体来说，我们为在第一波中减债危机远大于中央银行计划的最坏条件的情况建立模型，另外在第二波减债危机中流动性冲击的规模大小又是一个新的不确定性。当一个无法预料的尾部风险事件冲击这些新兴的市场时，这个场景是类似于一个“黑天鹅”冲击，同时关于“黑天鹅”危机的持续时间也有新的不确定性。如果坏运气持续下去，危机也许会持续下去而无法消退，这意味着第二波减债将会很大，将会超过在“黑天鹅”危机开始之前由中央银行计划的最坏的情况。如果好运的话，危机可能在第二个清算浪潮的到来的时候结束。附录列出了详细模型，同时推导了如下命题：

申明:一个不确定持续时间的无法预料的减债危机将会在危机的第一个阶段减少国际储备的消耗。一个长期而深刻的危机的可能性越高，在危机第一阶段储备的使用率就越低。在危机期间有着较少负债的新兴市场将消耗他们更少的国际储备，同时他们在危机的第一和第二阶段都将较少的暴露在危机中。高外债的情况相对于那些有较少外债的情况将在第一阶段导致更多的国际储备的使用，除非是

相对于一个短期危机而产生的一个小规模的减债。因此，一个长期危机的不确定的持续时间可能会引起一些国家对国际储备损耗的恐慌。

这种申明遵循因跨期调而整产生预期开销时获得的平滑化。这种平滑化是通过在第二波减债中保留最优外汇储备达到的。我们接下来分析EMs储备在危机期间的使用程度和意向，同时研究在2008年9月的危机中储备枯竭恐惧的广泛盛行。

营运管理外文文献+中文

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国际贸易英文文献

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网络营销外文翻译

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中国的对外贸易外文翻译及原文

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营销-外文翻译

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