考研英语(二)模拟试卷152.doc

考研英语（二）模拟试卷152

(总分：136.00，做题时间：90分钟)

一、Use of English(总题数：2，分数：80.00)

1.Section I Use of EnglishDirections: Read the following text. Choose the best word(s) for each numbered blank and mark A, B, C or D.（分数：40.00）

__________________________________________________________________________________________ Any sufficiently advanced technology, noted Arthur C. Clarke, a British science-fiction writer, is indistinguishable from magic. The fast-emerging technology of voice computing proves his 【C1】______Using it is just like casting a spell: say a few words into the air, and a nearby device can【C2】______your wish. The Amazon Echo, a voice-driven cylindrical computer that sits on a table top and answers to the name Alexa, can【C3】______music tracks and radio stations, tell jokes, answer trivia questions and control smart【C4】______; even before Christmas it was already resident in about 4% of American households. Voice assistants are【C5】______in smartphones, too: Apple's Siri【C6】______over 2 billion commands a week, and 20% of Google【C7】______on Android powered handsets in America are input by voice. Dictating e-mails and text messages now works 【C8】______enough to be useful. Why type when you can talk? This is a huge shift. Simple【C9】______it may seem, voice has the power to transform computing, by providing a natural means of interaction. Windows, icons and menus, and then touchscreens, were welcomed as more【C10】

______ways to deal with computers than entering complex keyboard【C11】______But being able to talk to computers【C12】______the need for the abstraction of a "user interface" at all.【C13】______mobile phones were more than existing phones without wires, and cars were more than carriages without horses, so computers without screens and keyboards have the【C14】______to be more useful and powerful than people can imagine today. Voice will not wholly【C15】______other forms of input and output. Sometimes it will remain more【C16】______to converse with a machine by typing rather than talking. But voice is destined to【C17】______a growing share of people's interactions with the technology around them, from washing machines that tell you how much of the cycle they have left to virtual assistants in corporate call-centres.【C18】______, to reach its full potential, the technology requires【C19】______breakthroughs—and a resolution of the【C20】______questions it raises around the trade-off between convenience and privacy.（分数：40.00）

(1).【C1】（分数：2.00）

A.spot

B.notice

C.point

D.note

(2).【C2】（分数：2.00）

A.make

B.allow

C.reach

D.grant

(3).【C3】（分数：2.00）

A.call up

B.make up

C.show up

D.take up

(4).【C4】（分数：2.00）

A.implements

B.appliances

https://www.wendangku.net/doc/2b12224808.html,plement

D.assistance

(5).【C5】（分数：2.00）

A.declining

B.surging

C.merging

D.vanishing

(6).【C6】（分数：2.00）

A.enters

B.dictates

C.handles

D.requires

(7).【C7】（分数：2.00）

A.searches

B.tracks

C.finds

D.issues

(8).【C8】（分数：2.00）

A.possibly

B.necessarily

C.adequately

D.reliably

(9).【C9】（分数：2.00）

A.because

B.though

C.when

D.since

(10).【C10】（分数：2.00）

A.intuitive

B.difficult

C.abstract

D.private

(11).【C11】（分数：2.00）

A.contents

https://www.wendangku.net/doc/2b12224808.html,ments

https://www.wendangku.net/doc/2b12224808.html,mands

D.contexts

(12).【C12】（分数：2.00）

A.reduces

B.increases

C.moderates

D.abolishes

(13).【C13】（分数：2.00）

A.Such as

B.Much as

C.Just as

D.As such

(14).【C14】（分数：2.00）

A.potential

B.capability

C.entitlement

D.responsibility

(15).【C15】（分数：2.00）

A.retain

B.replace

C.reform

D.resume

(16).【C16】（分数：2.00）

https://www.wendangku.net/doc/2b12224808.html,plicated

B.conventional

C.consistent

D.convenient

(17).【C17】（分数：2.00）

A.call for

B.answer for

C.account for

D.take for

(18).【C18】（分数：2.00）

A.Therefore

B.However

C.Likewise

D.Although

(19).【C19】（分数：2.00）

A.further

B.distant

C.instant

D.prompt

(20).【C20】（分数：2.00）

A.strange

B.unique

C.special

D.tricky

二、Reading Comprehensio(总题数：10，分数：52.00)

2.Section II Reading Comprehension

__________________________________________________________________________________________ 3.Part ADirections: Read the following four texts. Answer the questions below each text by choosing A, B, C or D.

__________________________________________________________________________________________ Cycling in London is less pleasant than in many European cities. Main roads teem with lorries; winding back streets are hard to navigate. The number of bicycle journeys has nonetheless doubled since 2000. Nationally, just 2% pedal to work. In Hackney, in London's East End, fully 9% do. But only 2% of women cycle to work in London, compared with 5% of men. Blacks and other ethnic minorities are reluctant to do it, too. Boris Johnson, London's mayor, oversaw the introduction of a bike-hiring scheme, which was started by his predecessor but quickly became known as the "Boris bike". He pushed for bright blue cycle paths on some busy roads. But the new cycle highways are far more ambitious and permanent. One will run east-west through the City and the West End. Another will run two miles from Elephant and Castle in the south to Farringdon in north London. Four existing routes will also be improved, while around 30 of the city's busiest junctions will

be made a bit less dangerous. The new superhighways ought to be much safer than London's existing cycle lanes. A raised pavement will keep cyclists away from cars and lorries. Junctions will be redesigned and some parking bays—including a few for the disabled—will be removed. Cars will be prevented from turning down certain streets. Similar schemes exist elsewhere: since 2007 around 30 miles of protected cycle lanes have been created in New York. In Amsterdam, where lanes have existed for decades, old people and women are far more inclined to cycle. Greens have long lobbied for cycle paths on the grounds that moving people out of cars cuts air pollution. A series of highly publicised accidents, including one involving a newspaper journalist, and several deaths in the city have also put pressure on the mayor to make London safer. And the social transformation of the capital has encouraged officials to smile on cyclists. The population of inner London is rebounding as affluent folk move in. The new inhabitants want cleaner streets and fewer cars, which are viewed as suburban. Cycling was once a means of transport for the poor. But it has become an important marker of an affluent world city, argues Isabel Dedring, the deputy mayor for transport. "There's more pressure on cities to be nice places to live," she says.（分数：10.00）

(1).Riding a bike in London is unpleasant because of the city's______.（分数：2.00）

A.enormous number of cyclists

B.numerous winding main streets

C.heavy traffic and complex terrain

https://www.wendangku.net/doc/2b12224808.html,plicated and changeable weather

(2).According to the text, who is more likely to ride a bike in London?（分数：2.00）

A.Working males.

B.Senior citizens.

C.Working women.

D.Unemployed people.

(3).Which of the following is true about Boris Johnson?（分数：2.00）

A.He initiated a bike-hiring scheme called"Boris bike".

B.He made great effort to build infrastructure for cycling.

C.He is a man with strong ambition and great perseverance.

D.He supervised the construction of the new cycle highway.

(4).The Green Party's attitude towards cycling is______.（分数：2.00）

A.optimistic

B.impartial

C.critical

D.favorable

(5).According to Isabel Dedring, one pressure modern cities face is______.（分数：2.00）

A.how to be affluent

B.how to be habitable

C.how to boost cycling

D.how to reduce pollution

Marion Nestle's heavyweight criticism against Coca-Cola and PepsiCo comes at an odd moment for the industry. Americans are drinking fewer sugary sodas—in 2012 production was 23% below what it had been a decade earlier. Even sales of diet drinks are losing their fizz, as consumers question the merits of artificial sweeteners. From one angle, it would seem that health advocates such as Ms Nestle have won. Yet in America companies still produce 30 gallons of regular fizzy drinks per person per year. In many countries, particularly developing ones, consumption is on the rise. Ms Nestle, a professor at New York University, is both inspired by recent progress and dissatisfied with it. That is no surprise. Her first book, Food Politics, remains a bible for those who complain about the power of food companies. In her new book she attacks the industry's most widely consumed, least healthy product. Soda Politics, she says, is a book "to inspire readers to action". As a

rallying cry, it is verbose. When readers learn on page 238 that she will pick up a particular subject in chapter 25, it is with no little dismay that they realize they are only on chapter 17. But what the author wants most is to craft a detailed guide to the producers' alleged violation, and how to stop them. Ms Nestle says she would have no complaint with sweet fizzy drinks if they were sipped occasionally, as a treat. However, for millions of people in many countries, they are not. In Mexico companies sold 372 cans of fizzy drinks per person in 2012. About half of Americans do not drink them regularly, but those who do are disproportionately poor, less educated, male, Hispanic or black. 10% of Americans down more than four cans a day. Drinking a lot of sweet fizzy drinks is plainly unhealthy. Unlike a Big Mac, they have no nutritional value; nor do their calories satisfy hunger. One large study found that for each can added to a person's daily diet, the risk of diabetes jumped by 22%. There are also links between sugar and heart disease, stroke and cancer. Drinking lots of sodas imposes clear costs on individuals, Ms Nestle argues, but it has a broader cost, too. American taxpayers subsidize corn production and let the poor use government food vouchers to buy fizzy drinks. More important, taxpayers foot the health bill for those who develop chronic disease.（分数：10.00）

(1).Diet drinks become unpopular in America because______.（分数：2.00）

A.only poor people drink them

B.they contain too much sugar

C.people doubt they are unhealthy

D.consumers think they are artificial

(2).In the book Soda Politics, Marion Nestle______.（分数：2.00）

A.called for food companies to adopt some measures

B.criticized the food industry and the unwise consumers

C.called on consumers to take action against unhealthy food

D.intended to write a detailed guide to the producers' violation

(3).Nestle tends to agree that drinking cola occasionally is______.（分数：2.00）

A.healthy

B.acceptable

C.harmful

D.questionable

(4).According to the last paragraph, having too many soda drinks ______.（分数：2.00）

A.can increase the risk of death

B.will inevitably lead to diabetes

C.may bring the problem of obesity

D.has something to do with certain diseases

(5).The underlined word "foot" (Line 6, Para. 4) is closest in meaning to______.（分数：2.00）

A.pay for

B.kick away

C.look for

D.stay away

It is a good time to be a fisherman. The global fish-price index of the UN's Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) hit a record high in May. Changing consumer diets, particularly in China, explain much of the sustained upward movement. High oil prices, which increase the cost of fishing and transportation, also add to the price of putting fish on the table. Not all fish are created equal, however. There are two types offish production; "capture" (or wild) and "aquaculture" (or farmed). And they seem to be on different tracks. Fish such as tuna, the majority of which is caught wild, saw much bigger price increases than salmon, which is easier to farm. Overall, the FAO's price index for wild fish nearly doubled between 1990 and 2012, whereas the one for farmed fish rose by only a fifth. What explains this big difference? The amount of wild fish captured

globally has barely changed in the past two decades. The ceiling, of about 90m tonnes a year, seems to have been reached at the end of the 1980s. Overfishing is one reason, as is the limited room for productivity growth, particularly if consumers want high quality. Patrice Guillotreau of the University of Nantes tells the story of a fleet in France that decided to trawl, rather than line-catch, its tuna. It brought more back to shore, but the fish were damaged. It could not be sold as high-value fillets and was only good for canning. The old ways of catching fish are still best if you want the highest profits, says Mr Guillotreau. In contrast, the farmed-fish industry continues to make productivity improvements. Fish farms have found crafty ways to use lower quantities of fish meal as feed. In the early days of aquaculture, it could take up to ten pounds of wild fish to produce one pound of salmon. Now the number is down to five. That may still be an inefficient use of protein, but the ratio is set to improve further. Fish farms have also become more energy-efficient, meaning that they are less affected by higher energy prices. And they have learned how to handle diseases better, reducing the quantity of fish that ends up being unsellable. As a result of all these improvements, the global production of farmed fish, measured in tonnes, now exceeds the production of beef. Output is likely to continue growing: the FAO estimates that by 2020 it will reach six times its 1990 level.（分数：10.00）

(1).The global fish price is growing because of______.（分数：2.00）

A.the shortage of fishermen

B.ever-increasing oil prices

C.the change of Chinese diets

D.high market demand and cost

(2).Tuna and salmon are mentioned to show that______.（分数：2.00）

A.salmon is not as expensive as tuna

B.tuna is more popular among consumers

C.wild fish is more precious than farmed fish

D.the prices of fish are in fact decided by FAO

(3).According to Patrice Guillotreau, the price of wild fish is decided by its______.（分数：

2.00）

A.quality

B.size

C.quantity

D.popularity

(4).The production of farmed fish is growing due to the following reasons except______.（分数：

2.00）

A.disease control

B.lower labour cost

C.energy conservation

D.reduction of fish feed

(5).The most suitable title for the text is______.（分数：2.00）

A.Wild Fish; Demand Decides Price

B.The Rising Price of Rare Wild Fish

C.Farmed Fish: Making Improvements

D.The Prices of Fishes: Rising Differently

Britain's private schools are one of its most successful exports. The children of the well-heeled flock to them, whether from China, Nigeria or Russia: the number of foreign pupils rose by 1. 4% in the last year alone. One headmaster recently asked a room full of pupils whether they flew business class to Britain. Only a few hands went up, suggesting they were not quite as spoiled as he had thought. Then a boy explained; many of the pupils fly first class instead. Yet foreign students, whether educated in British private schools or elsewhere, are decreasingly likely to

go to English universities. According to the Higher Education Funding Council for England, 307,200 overseas students began their studies in the country in 2012-2013, down from 312,000 two years earlier and the first drop in 29 years. Student numbers from the rest of the EU fell—probably a result of the increase in annual tuition fees in England from 6,000 a year to 9,000. But arrivals from India and Pakistan declined most sharply. In contrast to the visa regime for private schools, which is extremely lax (the Home Office counts private schools as favoured sponsors) , student visas have been tightened. Foreign students used to be allowed to work for up to two years after graduating. They now have only four months to find a job paying upwards of 20,600 if they want to stay in Britain. This change was intended to deal with sham colleges that were in effect offering two-year work visas. But it seems to have put off serious students too. Nick Hillman of the Higher Education Policy Institute says the government has sent unclear messages about the sort of immigration it wants to restrict. An emphasis on holding down net immigration influences young Indians and Pakistanis in particular. Australia and America, which have more relaxed entry criteria for students, are becoming more favoured destinations. Colin Riordan, Cardiff University's vice-chancellor, adds that Britain's student-visa regime has become more strict and difficult. As a result, Britain is losing out to other countries in the contest for talent—an oddity, given how often the prime minister bangs on about the " global race". Its unwelcoming standpoint will harm its long-term prospects. And the drift of foreign students from leading British private schools to American colleges may have another, somewhat happier, consequence: America might become rather better at cricket.（分数：10.00）

(1).It can be learned from Paragraph 1 that______.（分数：2.00）

A.many foreign students are from wealthy families

B.most students in the class are not spoiled at home

C.those who flew business class are from poor families

D.Britain has the world's most successful private schools

(2).The number of foreign students in Britain is decreasing possibly due to______.（分数：2.00）

A.the increase of living cost

B.the rising cost of schooling

C.the impact of financial crisis

D.the decrease of tuition subsidy

(3).Compared with the student visa, the visa for private schools is______.（分数：2.00）

A.fairly difficult

B.extremely strict

C.surprisingly loose

D.extraordinarily similar

(4).The policy for foreign students has changed in order to______.（分数：2.00）

A.attract more talents

B.restrict immigration

C.protect local students

D.reply to fake colleges

(5).The author holds that Britain's current student-visa regime may______.（分数：2.00）

A.deprive the country of foreign elites

B.lose both domestic and foreign talents

C.harm its long-term economic prospects

D.lose its advantage in sports competition

4.Part B

__________________________________________________________________________________________ [A]Robots Come from the Movies. [B]Development of Robots Is Fast. [C]Google Enters the Robot Industry. [D]Robots Today Are Not Impressive Enough. [E]The Future Robot Market Rests With Fancy.

[F]Robots May Be Different in the Near Future. [G]More Money Is Thrown into the Robot Industry. Robots came into the world as a literary device whereby the writers and film-makers of the early 20th century could explore their hopes and fears about technology, as the era of the automobile, telephone and aeroplane picked up its reckless jazz-age speed. From Fritz Lang's Metropolis and Isaac Asimov's I, Robot to WALL-E and the Terminator films, and in countless repetitions in between, they have succeeded admirably in their task. 1 Since moving from the page and screen to real life, robots have been a mild disappointment. They do some things that humans cannot do themselves, like exploring Mars, and a host of things people do not much want to do, like dealing with unexploded bombs or vacuuming floors. And they are very useful in bits of manufacturing. But reliable robots —especially ones required to work beyond the safety cages of a factory floor—have proved hard to make, and robots are still pretty stupid. So although they fascinate people, they have not yet made much of a mark on the world. 2 That seems about to change. The exponential growth in the power of silicon chips, digital sensors and high-bandwidth communications improves robots just as it improves all sorts of other products. And, as our special report this week explains, three other factors are at play. 3 One is that robotics R&D is getting easier. New shared standards make good ideas easily portable from one robot platform to another. And accumulated know-how means that building such platforms is getting a lot cheaper. A robot like Rethink Robotics's Baxter, with two arms and a remarkably easy, intuitive programming interface, would have been barely conceivable ten years ago. Now you can buy one for $ 25,000. 4 A second factor is investment. The biggest robot news of 2013 was that Google bought eight promising robot startups. Rich and well led and with access to world-beating expertise in cloud computing and artificial intelligence, both highly relevant, Google's robot programme promises the possibility of something spectacular —though no one outside the company knows what that might be. Amazon , too, is betting on robots, both to automate its warehouses and, more speculatively, to make deliveries by drone. In South Korea and elsewhere companies are moving robot technology to new areas of manufacturing and other services. Venture capitalists see a much better chance of a profitable exit from a robotics startup than they used to. 5 The third factor is imagination. In the past few years, clever companies have seen ways to make robots work. Now more people will grasp how a robotic attribute such as high precision or fast reactions or independent locomotion can be integrated into a profitable business; eventually some of them will build mass markets. Aerial robots—drones—may be in the vanguard here. They will let farmers tend their crops in new ways, give citizens, journalists and broadcasters new perspectives on events big and small, monitor traffic and fires, look for infrastructure in need of repair and much more besides.（分数：10.00）

填空项1:__________________

填空项1:__________________

填空项1:__________________

填空项1:__________________

填空项1:__________________

6.Part CDirections: Read the following text carefully and then translate the underlined segments into Chinese.

__________________________________________________________________________________________ 7.If there is one person to blame for economists' habit of commenting on everything, it is Gary Becker, who died on May 3rd. Not content with studying the world's economies, he was the first prominent economist to apply economic tools to all aspects of life. He revealed that people are often purposeful and rational in their decisions, whether they are changing jobs, taking drugs or divorcing their spouses. This insight, and the work that followed from it, earned him a Nobel prize in 1992. No less an eminence than Milton Friedman declared in 2001 that Mr Becker was "the greatest social scientist who has lived and worked in the last half-century". At the heart of

Mr Becker's work was the view that " individuals maximise welfare as they conceive it. " Welfare need not mean income; it could derive from the pleasure of selflessness.（分数：2.00）

__________________________________________________________________________________________

三、Writing(总题数：5，分数：4.00)

8.Section III Writing

__________________________________________________________________________________________ 9.Part ADirections: Write a composition/letter of no less than 100 words on the following information.

__________________________________________________________________________________________ 10.Some of your belongings have been harmed during transit by a home-moving company. Write the company a letter to 1) file a claim, and 2) specify the items damaged. You should write about 100 words neatly on the ANSWER SHEET. Do not sign your own name. Use "Li Ming" instead. Do not write your address.（分数：2.00）

__________________________________________________________________________________________ 11.Part BDirections: Write an essay of 160-200 words based on the following information.

__________________________________________________________________________________________ 12.Write an essay based on the chart below. In your writing, you should 1) interpret the chart, and 2) give your comments. You should write about 150 words neatly on the ANSWER SHEET. (15

2.00）

__________________________________________________________________________________________

【资格考试】2019最新整理-考研英语模拟试题1(一)

——参考范本—— 【资格考试】2019最新整理-考研英语模拟试题1（一） ______年______月______日 ____________________部门

Section ⅠUse of English Directions: Read the following text. Choose the best word(s) for each numbered blank and mark A, B, C or D on ANSWER SHEET 1. (10 points) The fitness movement that began in the late 1960s and early 1970s centered around aerobic exercise. Millions of individuals became 1 in a variety of aerobic activities, and 2 thousands of health spas 3 around the country to capitalize on his 4 interest in fitness, particularly aerobic dancing for females. A number of fitness spas existed 5 to this aerobic fitness movement, even a national chain with spas in most major cities. However, their 6 was not on aerobics, 7 on weight-training programs designed to develop muscular mass, 8 , and endurance in their primarily male 9 . These fitness spas did not seem to benefit 10 from the aerobic fitness movement to better health, since medical opinion suggested that weight-training programs 11 few, if 12, health benefits. In recent years, however, weight training has again become increasingly 13 for males and for females. Many 14 programs focus not only on developing muscular strength and endurance but on aerobic fitness as well. 15, most physical fitness tests have usually included measures of muscular strength and endurance, not for health

考研英语二模拟试题及答案解析(7)

考研英语二模拟试题及答案解析（7） (1~20/共20题)Section ⅠUse of English Directions: Read the following text. Choose the best word(s) for each numbered blank and mark A, B, C or D on ANSWER SHEET 1. Do people get happier or more foul-tempered as they age? Stereotypes of irritable neighbors__1__, scientists have been trying to answer this question for decades, and the results have been__2__Now a study of several thousand Americans born between 1885 and 1980 reveals that well-being__3__increases with age—but overall happiness__4__when a person was born. __5__studies that have__6__older adults with the middle-aged and young have sometimes found that older adults are not as happy. But these studies could not__7__whether their__8__was because of their age or because of their__9__life experience. The new study, published online January 24 in Psychological Science ,__10__out the answer by examining 30 years of data on thousands of Americans, including__11__measures of mood and well-being, reports of job and relationship success, and objective measures of health. The researchers found, after controlling for variables__12__health, wealth, gender, ethnicity and education, that well-being increases over everyone′s lifetime.__13__people who have lived through extreme hardship, such as the Great Depression,__14__much less happy than those who have had more__15__lives. This finding helps to__16__why past studies have found conflicting results—experience__17__, and tough times can__18__an entire generation′s happiness for the rest of their lives. The__19__news is,__20__we′ve lived through, we can all look forward to feeling more content as we age. 第1题 A.alike B.alongside C.aside D.besides 第2题 A.conflicting B.worrying C.revealing D.appealing 第3题 A.accordingly B.indeed C.hence D.nevertheless 第4题 A.resides with B.rests with C.depends on D.reckons on 第5题

考研英语一翻译真题汇总

1990 年英译汉试题 People have wondered for a long time how their personalities，and behaviors are formed. It is not easy to explain why one person is intelligent and another is not，or why one is cooperative and another is competitive. Social scientists are，of course，extremely interested in these types of questions. (61)They want to explain why we possess certain characteristics and exhibit certain behaviors. There are no clear answers yet，but two distinct schools of thought on the matter have developed. As one might expect，the two approaches are very different from each other. The controversy is often conveniently referred to as‖nature vs. nurture‖. (62)Those who support the ―nature‖side of the conflict believe that our personalities and behavior patterns are largely determined by biological factors. (63)That our environment has little， if anything，to do with our abilities，characteristics and behavior is central to this theory. Taken to an extreme，this theory maintains that our behavior is predetermined to such a great degree that we are almost completely governed by our instincts. Those who support the ―nurture‖ theory，that is，they advocate education，are often called behaviorists. They claim that our environment is more important than our biologically based instincts in determining how we will act. A behaviorist，B.F. Skinner，sees humans as beings whose behavior is almost completely shaped by their surroundings. The behaviorists maintain that，like machines，humans respond to environmental stimuli as the basis of their behavior. Let us examine the different explanations about one human characteristic，intelligence， offered by the two theories. Supporters of the ―nature‖theory insist that we are born with a certain capacity for learning that is biologically determined. Needless to say，they don‘t believe that factors in the environment have much influence on what is basically a predetermined characteristic. On the other hand，behaviorists argue that our intelligence levels are the product of our experiences. (64)Behaviorists suggest that the child who is raised in an environment where there are many stimuli which develop his or her capacity for appropriate responses will experience greater intellectual development. The social and political implications of these two theories are profound. In the United States， blacks often score below whites on standardized intelligence tests. This leads some ―nature‖ proponents to conclude that blacks are biologically inferior to whites. (65)Behaviorists，in contrast， say that differences in scores are due to the fact that blacks are often deprived of many of the educational and other environmental advantages that whites enjoy. Most people think neither of these theories can yet fully explain human behavior. 1991 年英译汉试题 The fact is that the energy crisis，which has suddenly been officially announced，has been with us for a long time now，and will be with us for an even longer time. Whether Arab oil flows freely or not，it is clear to everyone that world industry cannot be allowed to depend on so fragile a base. (71)The supply of oil can be shut off unexpectedly at any time，and in any case，the oil wells will all run dry in thirty years or so at the present rate of use. (72)New sources of energy must be found，and this will take time，but it is not likely to result in any situation that will ever restore that sense of cheap and plentiful energy we have had in the times past. For an indefinite period from here on，mankind is going to advance cautiously，and consider itself lucky that it can advance at all. To make the situation worse，there is as yet no sign that any slowing of the world‘s population is in sight. Although the birthrate has dropped in some nations，including the United States，the population of the world seems sure to pass six billion and perhaps even seven billion as the twenty-first century opens. (73)The food supply will not increase nearly enough to match this，which means that we are heading into a crisis in the matter of producing and marketing food. Taking all this into account，what might we reasonably estimate supermarkets to be like in the year2001? To begin with，the world food supply is going to become steadily tighter over the next thirty years—even here in the United States.By2001，the population of the United States will be at least two hundred fifty million and possibly two hundred seventy million，and the nation will find it difficult to expand food production to fill the additional mouths. 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